|Total Day Results||8 / 3-3-4|
|2021 Overall 1,828||1828 / 686-648-856|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.53%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.93%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,234-1,828||67.51%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 22-40||55.00%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 15-40||37.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 4 / 2-1-0||50.00% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 277/ 126-62-24||45.49% Win / 76.53% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ TP 6 / 0-0-2||00.00% Win / 33.33% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
Had three winners on Friday night, and we started to crank up the “Exactas Machine” a bit, too. Cashed for six of those rascals, and that helped pave the way to a profitable night, after all.
Here’s our looks for Saturday night’s affairs:
1st: 8-6/1-4-7/3-5-9/2…Flat Out Beautiful (8) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at Turfway Park on Saturday night. This 5YO gelded son of Flat Out will race for the first time under the name of trainer Mike Maker. Barn wins with .15% on the first start after the claim purchase. Drops off this claim, and the barn wins with .24% of those kind. Sharp work on Dec. 4 at Belmont Park, too. Looks solidly placed here, and gets one of this meet’s top riders (.24% win rate after the first 17 mounts). Spectacular Gem (6) has not won a race this year in 6 attempts, but this is a huge drop down for this 5YO gelding. Either looking to sell or looking to win aggressively. Has never been on the AW, but does have a 5-2-2 mark in 18 starts over the sod. Has not been a threat since March. Over-bet liability here. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-6 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-1-2/7-11/6-10/3-5-9…The #8 could be a popular tagline for this night of live racing, and I will go with other saddle cloth that reminds me of the great Joe Morgan (Reds’ Hall of Famer, who wore the #8) — Ann in the Middle (8). This 3YO Will Take Charge filly drops to half the asking price off the last race. Ran huge at about this same level in June at Churchill Downs. Will try the AW for the first time, but gets a hot rider and the barn wins with a whopping .56% when it lowers the boom and drops this much. Take note. She’s Wandaful (1) has not been close in either of the last two outings, but won over an AW track at Arlington Park just three starts ago. In 4 starts, all told, over the AW, this one has 2 wins. Take note. Mayapretty (2) is a 4YO English Channel filly who is bred to love this surface. And, she has indicated that she truly does after 4 starts here. Has a 1-1-1 mark in those efforts. Can push the pace some, and can finish the job, too. This one just won the last time out at Indy Grand. Barn wins with .22% when trying to go back-to-back in the claiming ranks. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-11 in two smaller units.
3rd: 5/7-10/2-4-8-11/3-9-6/1-12…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Vaccine of Hope (5). This 2YHO daughter of Pioneerof the Nile comes in off two very nice 2nds up in NY to start the career. Trainer specializes in coaching the juveniles, and has a .29% win rate this year in 422 total starts. Gets the meet’s top rider, so far, in the saddle. Works are good, too. Adds up to formidable for me. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 7-10-2-4 than the rest.
4th: 2-10-(14)/6-7-11/3-5-1-(13)/12-8…Buy Me Candy (2) gets the edge in this very well orchestrated event, that was put together by one of the finest young Racing Secretaries in the game today — Mr. Dan Bork. This 4YO son of Candy Ride comes in off a nice 2nd at KEE over the grass. Has never been on the AW yet, but the pedigree suggests that he should like it and he has hit the board in 8 of 14 starts so far. Ski Patrol (10) goes for a barn that shipped down here last year for the winter months and did quite well. Off to a great start here, again, picking up a winner on only previous outing. Gets a top rider to take the reins here and this one is moving up off a MCL win at Woodbine over that AW surface. Well-bred son of Pioneerof the Nile. Big shot. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 10-14-6-7-11-3-5-1-13 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-2/11-(13)-6-(14)/1-9/8-10-12/7-4…$100,000 My Charmer Stakes…Wow. Just wow. It was not that long ago that I suggested to our “team” that we may wanted to leave Diamond Solitaire in training for just a few more weeks to see how this Stakes came up. Let’s just say…I’m glad that brighter people prevailed and she shipped home for a Christmas Vacation of her own. This is tough. I go with Adventuring (5), who comes into this one off a fast-closing and super-impressive 3rd in the G3 Valley View on the grass at KEE. In only previous AW try, this one won here this Spring and won the Bourbounette Oaks. Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has hit the board in 7 of 9 lifetime starts and the only whiffs were in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Tepin Stakes. Look for this one to be motoring at the wire. I have to use So Darn Hot (2) in this spot, as well. This 4YO daughter of Ghostzapper is very well bred and comes in off a near-miss 2nd in a G3 event at Belmont Park. Has never run over an AW surface. Has only one 3rd in 2 previous tries over the grass. Gets a top rider, but the experience edge may lean to our top pick. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I key the 5 over/under the 2-11-13-6-14-1-9 in two smaller units, as well.
6th: 9-3/8-6/1-7/5-4…Sandor Clegane (9) gets my top grade in this affair. This 3YO gelded son of Constitution goes for a highly-rated trainer, who has won with .14% of 229 starters this year. Gets the meet’s top jock in the irons, and this NY-bred looks like she could be very handy here after being dropped from the $40,000 tagline in restricted company to this $5,000 open claiming event here. Barn wins with .22% when dropping this much. I’ll take the bait. Sky Bolt (3) nearly won here back in March when competing at the $7,500 level. Drops even a notch below and into the bargain bin here. Barn wins with .22% of the last 72 coming off this kind of a layup. Wins with .23% in the MCL ranks, too. Chance. I bet the 9-3 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. Stern. Ly. I also key the 9-3 over/under the 8-6-1-7-5-4 in two smaller units.
7th: 8-1-1A/2-5-6-10/3-7-9-11/4…Skylerville (8) ran a very credible 5th in the Stakes event at Woodbine last time out. In the last two AW tries, this one has a win and a very formidable attempt. Gets a top rider up. Barn wins with .21% of those stretching out off a sprint event, too. Ran up against Consumer Spending in the debut at Saratoga. Ran well against the likes of that one. Good enough for me. Miss Remmia (1) and Annagangsta (1A) both warrant a look and consideration. Both come from the barn of Brad Cox, who has a 3-1-1 mark here in the first 6 starts. Can’t ignore. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 2-5-6-10 in two smaller units.
8th: 9-5/12-11-8-10/1-6-7/2-3…The night’s finale is a wide, wide, wide open affair. When push does = shove, I will go with a more proven commodity in Alien Season (9). This 7YO goes for trainer Wesley Ward, who normally does quite well in these surroundings. Gets the meet’s best rider, so far, up. Comes in off a huge effort in the last 3, too. Adds up for me. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-5 in the exactas. I will key the 9-5 over/under the 12-11-8-10-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene