|2019 Overall 1,465||1,465/511-532-651|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.88%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.54%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –962 of 1,465||65.67%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 15-24||62.50%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 8-24||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 2-0-0-0||0.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 217-83-43-22||38.25%|
We had a different kind of night at Turfway Park on Friday. On Thursday, we managed only one true “winner,” but stacked the deck on the exactas. On Friday, we had 4 winners out of the 8 races, yet, we managed only one meager exacta.
One of these days — er, nights — we will match them up.
When we do?
Maybe tonight will be that night.
Here’s a look at the Saturday bill:
1st: 10-2/1-6/5-8/7-11…Unveiling (10) is even money in the ML, and should be with the huge drop in class for this one. Barn hits with .22% of those getting this kind of class drop, and the rider is top grade. Barn hits with .32% of those moving form the dirt to the all-weather surface, as well. Has faced much tougher all his life and the work session here on Nov. 20 was spot on. Ready. If there is an upset candidate in here, it may be Champagne Chills (2). This one is a NY-bred, who will be facing open company for the first time. Will also move to the synthetic for the first time, as well. New trainer hits with .33% of the newcomers to the barn and this one did train nicely in NY before moving South. Chance. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 1-6-5-8. I def use the two first time starters. They may run a big one.
2nd: 4/10-2-3/(14)-8/5-11…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with the ML favorite, Warrior’s Lullaby (4). This one is dropping in class, too, and just won at KEE against much better and for much more. Now, available for the $5,000 price tag. Likely to be haltered in this spot today. Never raced over the poly, but does have a 3-1-1 mark in 10 tries. Looks much the best in this spot. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. My key in the horizontal plays, too.
3rd: 8-5-2/1/4-9…American Joey (8) drops from a $50,000 tag to a $30,000 level here, and moves over to the all-weather for the first time. Before the last outing, when he veered out at the start, this one has hit the board in the previous 3 tries — with 2 seconds. With a good start today, could return to form in a hurry. Has enough speed to be close when turning for home. Blip (5) goes for a trainer who wins with .20% of those routing for the first time. May improve with the extra ground here and the trainer has a way of racing into final shape, too. Look for more here. Classified Info (2) drops in class for a top notch trainer. Barn hits with .20% of those that go from MSW to the MCL ranks. Also, this one gets the Lasix for the second time. Barn hits with .16% of those, too. Like the work coming in. Should be a force. I also use Deerslayer (1). First timer for a barn that hits with .17% of those going a mile or longer on debut. Chance, although I don’t like the rail position here. I bet the 8-2 across the board (take note) and then I key the 8-2 over/under the 5-1 in two smaller versions.
4th: 1-3-6/10-8/2-5/4-9…Proven Warrior (1) will make the first start for the new barn after being claimed last time out. This barn operator hits with .26% of those making the first start after the purchase. But…this trainer previously had this one in the barn on three other occasions. Keeps losing. Keeps buying back. Has speed to be really dangerous in this spot. Fridaynitestar (3) was claimed last time out and I can completely toss out that debacle of a race. Was checked. Was in tight. Never had much of a chance to run. Go back before that, and this one had won 2 in a row up North in Minnesota. I look for a huge turn around here for a barn that hits with .50% of them after a claim, and with .50% with a beaten favorite. My first Upset Special of the Day. I jumped in here with both feet. At Guard (6) drops to half the price tag that he ran at before. Has done well here in the past, too. Has a 1-2-2 mark in 5 previous tries over this all-weather surface. Experience helps on this stuff. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 6-10-8-2-5-4-9 in two smaller versions.
5th: 4-12/7-2-9/3-10/1-5-8-11…No Interest (4) was claimed last time out at Presque Isle and now gets bumped up in class for a trainer that hits with .25% of the 4 starters he has had after a purchase. This one has 12 tries over an all-weather track. Has a 5-2-3 mark to show for it. A plastics expert, if you will. That means a lot in this field of study. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-12 in one exacta. I will key the 4-12 over/under the 7-2-9-3-10-1 in two smaller versions, as well.
6th: 2-9-10/8-5/12-(14)-6…Pass It On (2) will make the first start for a new barn operator, as well, after being claimed last time out. Ran 6th in that event, but was wide throughout. New barn hits with .24% of the 25 horses it has saddled after a claim. Go back just a few races and you will see a second against much, much tougher at Churchill downs over the sod. Sometimes the grass horses convert nicely to the poly. Maybe here, too. Social Circle (9) is 12-1 in the ML and is my second Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO daughter of Stay Thirsty was claimed last time out, as well, and goes to a barn that hits with .12% of the debut runners. Nearly won a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs back in May. Has been off form in the last 4, to be sure, but could get a new lease on life in here with the switch to poly. Sistas Ready (10) drops from the $20,000 level to $15,000 here. Has not been good this year, at all, but the race at Ellis Park on July 29 is good enough to win this one. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 2-9 over/under the 10-8-5-12 in two smaller versions.
7th: 11-9-1/12/2-10-6-7/8-5…The feature race of the day is a good one, and offers some wide selections, as well. I will spread out here, in the horizontal plays, and will key on K Choice (11) in my verticals. This one was claimed last time out by Mike Maker, who hits with .15% of those making the barn debut. He drops off the win in the last out, and the barn hits with .33% of those. In addition, this one has now won 2 in a row. Barn hits with .18% of those trying to repeat. Comes into this one hot, and gets a top rider in the irons. Land Battle (9) is 10-1 in the ML and I like this one’s chances, too. Has raced over the poly on 5 previous occasions, and has a 2-1-1 mark — all right here. Worked well here on Dec. 3. Rider has hit with .17% for this barn in the last 23 rides. Knights Key (1) is coming out of two Stakes events and has a win in two previous tries over all-weather surfaces. Has enough speed to be tough early on and carve out a great trip. Love the work here on Nov. 30. Take serious note here. I bet the 11-1 across the board (Take Note). I box the top 3 numbers in the exacta, and then key the 11-1 over/under the 9-12-2-10-6-7 in two smaller versions.
8th: 8-1-12/5-7-11…The final race of the night is a wide open affair. Slim pickings in here. I finally decide to land on Hooray for Harvey (8) drops from the $10,000 price tag to the $5,000 level for this one. Ran very well at this level two races ago. In 15 starts this year, has a mark of 2-2-5. Consistent sort. Was claimed two starts ago by the current connections, and the barn hits with .25% of those getting this kind of class drop. Eyes On (1) faltered late last time out. But ran much better on the sod four races ago. That may indicate a return to form with the switch to poly for the first time. Chance at a price. Charles T (12) is 10-1 in the ML, and rates a chance against this group, too. Trainer hits with .17% of those that ship into a new venue. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the next 3 numbers in a softer exacta, too.
Good Luck & All the Best/Gene