|Day Results||8 / 2-3-4|
|2020 Overall 1783||1783 / 634-615-778|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.56%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.89%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,149-1,783||64.44%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 61-106||57.55%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 39-106||36.79%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 19-7-0-2||36.84% Win / 47.37% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 252-92-48-34||36.51% Win / 69.05% ITM|
(Our group of best friends and family members. Here’s to a great 2021)
Well, well, well. We did it. We survived 2020. We lasted. We made it.
At the end of Thursday Night and the end of 2020, we had handicapped 1,783 races for the year. Our win percentage was a nifty 35.56%. Our top three picks combined to hit the board 37.89% of the time. Our our top pick overall finished in the top 3 spots on 64.44%.
Our “Key Plays of the Day” managed to win on 36.51% and hit the board on 69.05% of the time.
Not a bad handicapping year.
But we always are looking to do better. Just hope that you have had as much fun at handicapping and playing as we have.
Here’s to a better 2021. Here’s to more winners. Here’s to making some more money.
Here’s to you.
Here’s our “Statistics” for the first day of the New Year:
|Day Results||8/ 2-3-3|
|2021 Overall 8||8/ 2-3-3%|
|Win % of Top Pick||25.00%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.33%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money –5 – 8||62.50%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 5-8||62.50%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 2-8||25.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 1 / 0-1-0||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 1 / 0-1-0||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
Our looks for Saturday’s Card:
1st: 10-11/7-9-4/6-5-1…Distorted Joke (10) drops into this “bottom level” MCL event for the guru of Turfway Park trainers — Wesley Ward, who is wining at a .25% clip this meet. This one has not been out since October, when she ran 4th at odds-on favoritism. Barn wins with .21% when away from the races this long. Interesting note is that Gerardo Corrales — who normally rides for Ward — is on another in this match. Very interesting. T C B Baby (11) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This one is sitting at 6-1 odds in the Brisnet.com ML calculations. But this one gets Corrales — the leading rider here. This will be the first start, too, and the barn of trainer Larry Rivelli is winning at a .38% clip this meet. On the AW surfaces, this trainer wins at .36% rate. Works are good enough to have ready at first asking. I bet the 10-11 across the board and then hit the exacta box with those two . I will key the 10-11 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter units.
2nd: 4-1/7-11-3-(13)/2-5-12…So Caught Up In U (4) drops into the bargain bin for a trainer who has won with only .03% of 38 starts in 2020. Gets a red-hot rider for this one and this one does have a 2nd here back in January. Not fired up by this choice, but this one may be the best of a rather modest group. Masterofthehouse (1) didn’t run well at this level here on Dec. 4. Ran 10th. Was beaten 17 lengths. But? He was steadied in the final turn and lost all chance at that point. Gets a new rider here. And, in 36 runs over an AW surface? Has a 6-5-5- record. This is where I go. I bet the 1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the “all button” in this spot.
3rd: 9-8/11-12-2-7/4-5/3-1…With Mischief (9) will get the Lasix for the first time now that the daughter of Into Mischief has turned 3. Ran well at Churchill downs in the career debut before tiring late. Faced some good ones in that affair. Trainer is winning at a .36% clip here with the Kentucky string and gets a top rider — who has won with .33% of the last 6 rides for this barn. The top pick here and my first Key Play of the Day. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-8 in one stern exacta. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 11-12-2-7-4-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-3/6-9-12-(13)/4-7-11/1-8/5-10…U S Delta Force (2) gets the saddle from one of the hottest trainers on the grounds. In 21 starts so far this meet, the barn has gone 6-3-2. That averages out to a .29% win rate. Gets the meet’s top rider, too, and he has gone 3-2-1 in the last 11 mounts. Looks to have the speed and style to dominate in this one. Derby Code (3) moves out of the sunny south and comes to KY for a barn that is beginning to heat up a tad here. This 4YO son of Lookin At Lucky won the debut race in early November by nearly 5. Has the ability to stalk or run early on, too. Gets a tp rider in the irons. Threat. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 6-9-12-13-4-7-11 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-7-(13)/10-8/4-12/1-9/2-5-11…Picasso Collection (3) is another who will get the Lasix for the first time now that she has graduated to the 3YO ranks. Ran very well on debut at KEE in October. Returned here on Dec. 2 and just could not grind out the win in the late going. This one will be coming very late and will need racing room and luck. But gets a top rider in this colony back in the saddle. Look out. Could be rambling late. Foolery (7) gets the meet’s top rider and will get treated with Lasix for the first time, too. This one has run up against some salty foes so far and should benefit from a little lighter company here. Trainer wins with .29% when treating with Lasix for the first time. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-8 in two more and I also key the 3-7 over/under the 4-12-1-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-(13)/5-4-11/12-8/3-10…Sunny One (2) will be my next Key Play of the Day if the #13 does NOT draw in from the AE List. If she does, then I will have to waffle a bit in my gusto. But Sunny One comes into this one off a decent run against much, much better here last time out against much tougher. Had to steady in the first turn of that one, too. Gets a huge rider switch for this one and should benefit from a cleaner trip. Sacre Bleu (13) will be a contender if she draws in from the AE List. Ran good at this level last time out on Dec. 5 and gets the Lasix for the first time, too. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
7th: 3-4/6-11-(13)-2/10/12-1/7-8-9-5…Speedy Hans (3) has raced 4 times over an AW surface, to date. Has 2 wins and a second in those efforts. Returns to that surface here and the work on Dec. 26 was spot on. Very nice. Looks like this one could be a tough out here. Has been facing some real good ones at Woodbine. And? My next Key Play of the Day. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-4 in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 6-11-13-2-10-12-1 in two smaller units. I will also key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed here in two smaller units.
8th: 7-8-10/(13)-(14)-12-9-2/5-1-11/6-4…Pledge (7) is a 3YO Candy Ride daughter who ran a very solid third here on Dec. 9. Came with a nice rally there when going 4 wide. Gets a big rider switch here and picks up the Lasix for the first time, too. Look for a big improvement with the last work on Dec. 26 sitting this one up nicely. A Merry Prankster (8) has run two seconds in row to begin the career. Has a bullet work over this track on Christmas Eve. Barn is well-respected and looks like this 3YO daughter of Distorted Humor could be ready for another big run. Jamsstar (10) comes from the barn of HOF trainer Mark Casse. Barn is winning at a .16% clip here this meet and this one ships in after trying the likes at Saratoga, and Belmont Park. Should like this company a bit better. Looks to have talent. More to come. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 8-13-14-12-9-2-5-1-11 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene