|Total Day Results||8 / 3-3-3|
|2021 Overall 292||292 / 93-99-110|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.85%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.47%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 176-292||60.27%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 113-188||60.11%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 62-188||32.98%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 27 / 13-3-3||48.15% Win / 70.37% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 40 / 22-7-3||55.00% Win / 80.00% ITM|
Another good start to the night. Another disappointing finish on Friday night.
We win the first two races outright, including the first race “Key Play of the Night.”
But after that?
We managed just one winner out of the next six races, and we managed only one exacta over that span, too.
So, that is two nights in a row that we showed early speed and wilted. Hopefully, we can learn to finish. Soon.
Here’s our looks for the Saturday night program at the “new and improved” Turfway Park:
1st: 2-4-7/1-5-3/6-8…Implied Volatility (2) is a 5YO gelding that ships down from NY and into the barn of former NY-trainer Raymond Handal. This barn has struggled a bit in the new environment, but this one drops from the $16,000 tag all the way to the $7,500 level tonight. Barn wins with .19% when dropping this much at once. Gets a top rider in the irons, too. Looks like he could be salty in this group. Released (4) goes for a new barn operation that has only 9 started over the past two years. Still looking for the win. Ran well here last time out to be 2nd, but that was at odds of 36-to-1. Might be a bit over-matched, but have to give a look. Winging Ways (7) is the ML favorite in the Brisnet.com numbers and why not? This one won by 51/2 lengths last time out. But that was to break the maiden and now moves up to face winers for the first time. That ‘s a tough thing for any horse to do and especially with these types. Love the trainer. Hope he wins. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 4-1-5-3-6-8 in two smaller units.
Pick 5: 2-4-7-1-5-3/1/5-9/4-6/9-2-1-3-8-6 = .50-cent ticket costs = $72
2nd: 1/8-10/4-3-7/5…My first Key Play of the Day will come right here with No Bang No Boom (1). This one drops from the $20,000 price tag all the way to the bargain bin, and will ship North from Gulfstream Park to the “new and improved” Turfway Park. Just two stars ago, back in December, this one ran a really nice 3rd against much, much tougher. Goes for the barn of Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .29% clip here this meet. Rider has won with .29% of the last 21 races for this barn, too. My solid pick. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed. I will key the 1 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-9/4-8/2-3…Venetian Dream (5) comes into this one prepped by trainer Larry Rivelli, who is winning at a .30% clip here this meet. In 23 starts? Has 7 wins, 7 seconds and a third. This one gets a hot rider in the irons and should be fitter off the last start. In the 2nd start off a layup? This barn wins with .32% of the last 196 to fit that category. Threat. Complier (9) is another from the Ward barn. Has not been close in any of the 3 career starts, to date. But this one drops from the $25,000 level to the $7,500 tag tonight. Blinkers come off. Barn wins with .38% when dropping this much and with .20% when the shades are discarded. Could show big improvement here. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 5-9 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed.
4th: 4-6/2-1-3/7-5…Jeannie’s Beepbeep (4) has not been worse than 2nd in the last 7 starts. Only two wins in that mix, but this one seems to be right there at the wire every time. Last two races have been here. A win and a 2nd. Has speed to burn and the work here on Feb. 27 was spot on. Looks ready to rock and roll again. Chart (6) comes from the barn of Mark Casse, who is winning at a .21% rate. But when this rider jumps up? Wins at a .36% clip. Comes off a couple of Stakes races and should love this level. Barn wins with .17% of those coming off this type of a vacation. Look for this one to roll along, too. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box these two in the exacta, sternly. I will key the 4-6 over/under the numbers listed above.
5th: 9-2/1-3-8/6-5-7…Pat’s Property (9) is a first timer from the barn of Brad Cox, who wins with .18% when they make he debut in the MCL ranks. Has been training nicely (look at the work at KEE on Feb. 10). This one cost $50,000 at the OBS 2YO Sale last year. Now makes the gate for a $30,000 tag. Should fit with these, to be sure. Southern Will (2) faced tougher last time out and was no factor after an awkward start. Drops back to the MCL level here and should be a bigger threat. Ran 3rd at Churchill Downs at this level last November. Chance. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top two in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 6-7/4-2-5/8/1-3…On Deck (6) goes for one of the hottest barn operations in all of NA. This trainer has won with .26% of the 46 starters here this meet. Has won with all kinds and types, too. This one will make the first start for this barn, who claimed her last time out. Barn wins with .21% of those making the debut after a claim purchase. has been a winner and a tough-beat 2nd in two starts here. Look for more tonight. Its Cold in Dehere (7) is another from the same barn. Really ran well against tougher here two starts ago. Gets a rider who has won with .33% of his mounts for this barn. Could be a “Morey” exacta here. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 7-3/9-12/8-10-1…Margaret Drive (7) is the ML favorite and could be winner’s circle worthy tonight after a nice 3rd here last time out. May improve with a shorter distance here and the barn wins with .19% of the last 221 to go over the AW surface. Big chance for an underrated barn operation. Sugar Diva (3) drops to half of the asking price a race ago. Drop should help and this one has the breeding to do well here, as well. Gets the top rider in this venue and should be a tough out from a nice stalking position. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 6-4-(13)/11/1-5-7-2/10-8…Star of Shanghai (6) is my first Longshot Special of the Night. This 3YO filly by Shanghai Bobby — a under-respected sire — is coming in off some races down at Tampa Bay. Has only one run over an AW surface before, but this one should convert nicely off the turf experience last time out. Drops to half of the asking price last time out and the barn wins withy a whopping .26% when it plummets this much at once. Rider is 1-for-18 here this meet and I don’t know a lot about. But I really respect this training operation. Big shot. Bizby (4) is my second Longshot Special of the Night. This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML, and I would love to see this one go to the post with those kind of odds. Has not run since August, and the barn is 0-for-27 with those coming off that lengthly of a layup. But the works are OK and this one did show some class when coming off an extended layup last May at Churchill Downs. Sky Factor (13) figures to be a big factor if the 4YO filly draws into the race from the AE List for trainer Tommy Drury, who is heating up nicely here. Over the lat 14 days, this barn has sent out 6 horses. Has won with 3. If she gets in, she is a must play. Must play for me. I bet the 6-13 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-4-13 over/under the 11 in two more. I will key the 6-13 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene