|2019 Overall 1,529||1,529/534-549-676|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.92%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.35%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –994 of 1,529||65.01%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 47-88||53.41%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 31-81||38.27%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 10-5-1-0||50.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 225-88-44-22||39.11% Win / 68.44% ITM|
OK, we have to admit. Sometimes you work as hard as you can. Sometimes you do the best you can. Or, at the very least, you think you do. Sometimes you go to work; do the same things you always do; you calculate and contemplate; you spill brain juice, that ekes out of your forehead, and drops on your desk. And…
Sometimes you just stink.
On Friday, OMG. I am so very sorry.
In 8 races at Turfway Park, I managed to get one winner across the board and that was my Key Play of the Day in the second race. but that one returned only $9.20 for a $2 win, place and show wager.
Oh, I did manage to find three exactas that returned $34.10, $11.20, and $22.80 for each $1 played. But those were simply “damage control” tickets.
How bad was I? Out of the 8 races, my top pick managed to hit the board a grand total of 1 time. One.
How bad was I? My top pick finished last — dead last — 3 times and next to last once. OMG.
How bad was I? I am embarrassed.
Let’s hope we get back in the saddle today, friends. I’ll be trying. All the time. I’ll be trying.
1st: 1-8/2-7/3-4/6…Illidan (1) is a 3YO son of Pioneerof the Nile and is trained by one of the best in the business. Still, this one has never been close at the wire against MSW company in the first 3 career starts. Gets the plunge today. Shows up for $15,000. Bullet work for this one on Dec. 13. Meet’s top rider up. Barn hits with .21% when dropped into the MCL ranks for the first time. Rider is super hot, too, with 5 wins in last 19 mounts. Pick. Rock On Kitten (8) will get a big drop for this one, too, after going up against $32,000 MCL last time out. In 9 career starts — all on the grass — this one has 4 seconds. Was claimed for $50,000 back in June. Now can be haltered for $15,000. Need a bigger truck. Stalks. And, hangs. Maybe again. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-8 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions. Competitive field here.
2nd: 6-1-2/7-8/4…A wide open affair here, and a “Tread Lightly” approach for me. I will give the slight edge to Sperling (6), mainly because somebody has to win and I need to put a number down. This 6YO Giant Oak mare does have a nice record over the all-weather surface. In 13 starts, has a 4-6-1 mark. Gets a solid rider in the irons. And, in only previous try here, was second. She will be coming late. Needs room. Career Girl (1) drops down a couple of notches to the bargain bin tonight. Trainer is having a very chilly season and is 0-0-0 in 5 starts here. But the work on Dec. 14 here was encouraging. Chance. I Got It (2) ran a nice second at this level last time out. In 11 tries over this track, she has a 2-4-3 mark. May come from way back, too. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in on e exacta. Good luck here. Dart time.
3rd: 7-2/4-3-10-9/5-8…Rulelikecleopatra (7) has not raced since May 23, when she was 6th for the second time in a row. Was the beaten favorite that day, but has had an extended vacation since for a barn that hits with .15% of them away this long. Has been working very well of late, and gets a rider who has a win for this barn in 3 tries. Trainer hits with .29% of those returning as the beaten fav, too. Will be closing late and has 11 wins in 21 tries over this track. Preferred course, to be sure. Old Centre (2) has run twice over the all-weather track in the past. Has 2 wins. Closes late, and will need some racing luck, but figures to be close at the wire. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-2 in one exacta. I will key the 7-2 over (only) the rest of the numbers.
4th: 3/10-11/(13)-6-7-(14)/1-12-2…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Spirogyra (3). Won’t get any odds on the straight play. But this one was claimed for $20,000 last time out at Churchill Downs and he made a heckuva run before tiring to be 4th against much better. Now, drops off the claim purchase and the barn hits with .24% of those kind. Has early speed and needs to use it here. Love the work over this track on Dec. 14. Looks like he may prefer this kind of surface. Don’t be shocked if he is taken again tonight. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key the 3 over/under the 10-11-13. I will key the 3 over (only) the rest in a smaller version.
5th: 8-12-3/1A-2/5-7-10/4-6-11…Another race that seems to be on the wide open side of the equation, but I am going to take a strong stance here. Sunday Scaries (8) ran a sneaky good 4th last time out here on Dec. 6. Broke from the #9 PP and was relegated to the back of the pack early, after a bit of an issue into the first turn. Didn’t appear on the video until very late, when closed with a rush to get up for 4th. Drops off that effort. Should improve a bit with a better trip. This one comes from behind and will need room, but I am going on top. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8 over/under the 1A-2-5-7-10 in two smaller versions, as well.
6th: 1-8/2-4-7/6-9…Lady Leah (1) draws the rail for this 1-mile contest, and will be making the second start for the new barn operation after being claimed. Gets back down to the level where she may be a force again. Before the last try, she had hit the board in 4 straight and 7 of the last 9. Spit the bit hard in the last outing at Churchill Downs when facing much tougher. Open race here, but she does have a 1-1-1 mark in 5 starts over this all-weather surface. My pick. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-8 in one exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
7th: 8-6/10-4-2-1A/11-9-5-1…A really nice allowance event carded here with a number of potential winners in the midst. But I am going to concentrate my betting strategy on the top two numbers here — led by Infinite (8). This 3YO gelded son of Scat Daddy has a 1-1-1 mark over the all-weather and has the breeding to just thrive over it. Comes off a super nice win over the sod at Churchill Downs last time out. Loses that condition, but could score right back with a repeat effort of that move. Barn hits with .33% of those moving from grass to AW. And, the jockey has ridden 3 winners in 5 starts for this barn this meet. Maybe some others ought to start using this jock. Love the work here on Dec. 17. My pick. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-6 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 8-6 over/under the 10-4-2-1A-11 in two smaller versions.
8th: 1-8-10/2-9/4-11…The last race of the night and I will go with my Upset Special of the Day (er…Night). Tarnish (1) draws the rail for this 6.5-furlong event and that’s not the most ideal spot for a youngster. But this 2YO daughter of The Factor has flashed some speed in the a.m. before and has the pedigree to want to get out of the gate and in the front of the pack. Drops from a MSW event at Indy Grand in early November to the $7,500 tag here. Could be a nice pick-up for the right buyer. The “show” horse in the first out came right back to win, too. Has a shot if she can get away from the gate in good order. I’m on. Smarty Artie (8) comes from the barn of Wesley Ward and gets the meet’s top rider. Enough to be in the mix here. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 10-2-9-4-11 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene