McLean’s Selections for Turfway Park on Saturday Night, Feb. 1

We scratched and clawed through the card on Friday night. Managed a couple of winners outright. But it was the exacta plays that turned everything rosy for us as we approach Valentine’s Day. We hit for exactas that returned $14.50, $13.20 and a whopping $61.60 for each $1 played.

Love notes.

We are hoping for a few more in the win column tonight. Here’s a closer look at the proceedings:

1st: 1-6/10-7-3/4-2…Promontory (1) will get the slight edge in the first tilt of the night, breaking from the rail in his 1-mile event over the AW surface. The 5YO gelded son of Giant’s Causeway comes from a sire that can produce AW runners. Will be making the first start ever for the new barn operation, which is scoring at a .37% clip here in the last 38 runners. Gets a rider who has won with .40% of the last 20 mounts for this barn. Has speed to set sail early, too. Has not run since October, but if fit off the works? Watch out at a square price. Rock On Kitten (6) figures to be the favorite, after breaking the maiden here last time out on Jan. 16 in convincing, easy and impressive fashion. Meet’s leading rider is back in the saddle, and this one has been consistent since Day 1. In 11 lifetime tries, has the one win, but 5 more seconds against much better competition. Should be stalking from the get-go. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 10-7-3 in two smaller versions.

2nd: 6-7/4/1-3…Bay of Fables (6) was pushed up to a win after a disqualification last time out. Loses that condition and will face tougher in here. But the horse that edged this one and was DQ’d, came right back to win a couple of nights ago. Looks like it could be a “key race” to watch. This one has won two of the last three tries and looked good in first effort over the AW. Trainer having a solid meet here with limited runners. Seductive (7) has faced tougher in the past and has some back class that could make her a real threat in this spot. Blinkers go back on after a failed experiment last time out. Goes from a route to a sprint and the barn hits with .14% of those kind. Trainer is ice cold, though, and that doesn’t help the situation. I Admire You (4) is a horse to watch in this mix. The 5YO mare didn’t run much in the last outing, but won two races back. Will cut back in distance and she has a 1-2-0 record in 5 starts at this length. Has a 2-2-0 mark on the AW, too. Here’s the kicker. The meet’s leading rider jumps off another to take the reins here. Hmmm. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. 

3rd: 3-8-2/1-6-7/9-5…Bonita Springs (3) is a NY-bred who is now in the hands of a trainer who has won with only .06% of the last 89 runners to get the girth. Doesn’t sound like a winning formula for Turfway Park in the middle of the winter in Kentucky. But…There’s always a “but…” This one is dropping back to a class level where she can be productive again. Nearly won at this price tag in late December. Has raced against better and could find the bargain bin to her liking at a nice price. In 3 starts over the AW, she does have a second and a third. Tudox Lifting Off (8) is another NY-bred, and this 5YO mare by Warrior’s Reward figures to be the horse to beat and the PT favorite. Goes for the meet’s top barn operation and the apprentice gets the reins again. Jockey has won with .35% in 31 mounts for this barn since December. Barn hits with .44% of those that make the second start for the new operation. OK. OK. OK. I give. I bet the 8 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 8 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.

4th: (13)-12-8/3-4-2-6/5…Lyonaisse (13) will need some help even before this race begins. Needs a scratch or two to draw into the body of the race from the AE List. If this 4YO Algorithms filly does, though, she is a contender. Despite the wide post. She will be dropping in class to an all-time low level and does have 3 seconds and a third in 10 starts to date. Will get the meet’s top rider up, as well. Barn has been on a roll of late here, as well. If not, the first-time starter Ice Blink (12) may get the honors for a barn that has won with .37% of the 38 runners since December. Barn hits with .28% of those making the debut and this one has been training over this track for the trainer/owner combo. If Jimenez doesn’t ride the #13, he gets the nod here. Take note. My Maiko (8) drops in class off a nice run here against tougher last time out. The barn now is run by Rusty Arnold’s assistant, and he has 2-1-1 mark in 11 starts this meet. Could be tough off the last work at KEE on Jan. 10. Look for this one to make noise tonight. I bet the 13 if she gets in. If not, I will bet both the 12-8 across the board. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12-8 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a much smaller version.

5th: 6/12-8/1-5-2-11-9/4…My first Key Play of the Night and my first Upset Special of the Night now come in the same race and with different horses. That’s really hard to do. But I like them both. Novella (6) should be the class of this race, and, as such, is likely to be the PT favorite. The 4YO Red Rocks filly comes from a pedigree that excels over the AW surface. She has never run a race over it, but falls from some really good races in the past to an all-time low for this one. The work pattern is very promising and the barn has 2 seconds in just 3 starts here this meet. Adds up for me. But…there’s always a “but,” right? I also take a little bit of a flyer with my longshot play — Curlin Coed (12). I wish we could lock in this 15-1 ML odds, but if we get half of that, I will be happy. Last year, this one had a 2-4-0 record in 8 starts. On the AW, has a win in two starts here. Gets the meet’s top rider. Does come off a long layup since September, but look at the work here on Dec. 13. The win over this track came against much tougher, too. Could shock. I bet the 6-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 6-12 over/under the 8-1-5-2-11-9 in two smaller versions.

6th: 1/(13)-12/7-5/2-6-9…The second race in a  row and I get a Key Play of the Night. This time I go with Mountain Melodies (1), who comes from the barn of trainer Mike Maker. The trainer is hitting with .22% of the 59 runners he has saddled here this meet and this one ran very well when stretching out to the two turns and a mile the last time here on Jan. 17. Nearly won that one before tiring at the end. Gets a new rider who has hit with .44% of the last 9 rides for this barn. On debut, this one ran behind a very nice young filly by the name of Miss Jacqueline. Got beat 8 lengths that day at Churchill Downs. I know a little about that filly. Since I own her. Love to see this one run good tonight. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest in the exacta.

7th: 4-11/3-7-6-9/10…What a nice race this has shaped up to be for the feature event of the night and the weekend. I will definitely go with Royal Mesa (4). This 4YO son of Sky Mesa comes from a pedigree that does well over the AW. Nearly won the Prairie Bayou Stakes here on Dec. 31. Came with a rush at the wire. Just nipped. Third place horse came right back to win. Ran 4th against Night Oops just three races ago and that one ended up in the Pegasus World Cup. Tall cotton. The one to beat at short odds. If you are looking for a price point, may want to consider the outside horse here — Thomas Shelby (11). Connections — which include the “For the People” contingency of Morgan & Morgan Law Firm — paid $525,000 for this 4YO son of Curlin in 2018. Has won back about $34,000. Need a bigger truck. But this one has excelled over this AW surface in the past. Never forget about this barn and getting them ready off the layup, either. Has talent. Proven before. I bet the 4 to win/place and then box the 4-11 in a solid exacta. I will key the 4-11 over/under the rest in two smaller versions.

8th: 5/3-2-1/4-8/6…The last race of the night and the last Key Play of the Night, too. I will go strong with my great friend and trainer Stephen Lyster on Cabot Trail (5). In fact, if I had an extra $7,500 lying around with nothing to do, I would claim this 4YO gelded son of Quality Road and keep him right where he is and the barn that he calls home. This one has not run since Nov. 9 at Churchill Downs. Ran up against $40,000 claimers that day. Ran 5th. The time before, he won at Keeneland coming from off the pace at the $15,000 claiming price tag. Now, he shows up for $7,500. Has the pedigree to like the AW. Has trained very well of late. This barn normally slams the TP winter circuit, too. I look for nothing but the taillights here, to quote a Clint Black son. (If you are too young to know of Clint Black, then do yourself a favor and look him and this song up.) I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the “all button.”

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene