|Day Results||8 / 3-3-5|
|2020 Overall 197||197 / 71-60-74|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.04%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.69%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –131-197||66.50%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 122-183||66.67%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 67-183||36.61%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 27-5-9-6||18.52% Win / 74.07% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 28-6-9-6||21.43% Win / 75.00% ITM|
Another night where we landed 3 winners out of the 8 races. Had 4 modest exactas, to boot. But the real money came in the final Pick 4. Managed to negotiate that masterpiece and tally a winning night on the scorecard.
The one disappointing feature of our picks, though, is our “Key Play of the Night.” So far, we have managed a win percentage of an awful 18.52% at Turfway Park. That’s about half of our regular “win” rate. Our top pick is hitting the board on a whopping 74.07% of the time. So? Let’s start to key our “Key Play” under in the exactas and trifectas.
We shall see.
Here’s a peek at tonight’s picks:
1st:5-7/6-1-3/9-2-4-8…Tudox Lifting Off (5) gets the edge in the lid lifter. This 5YO Warrior’s Reward mare is training by one of the meet’s top barn operations. Comes into this on off two straight 3rds here at this level. Lost by a neck last time out as the favorite. Barn hits with .25% of those returning as a beaten favorite, and with .25% for this meet. Holy Cookie (7) has run two good ones in row, winning the last tim out here by a skinny nose. Came with a run late in that one. Gets a new rider for this one, though, as John McKee opts for another mount. Interesting. In 9 starts here, this one has 2 wins and 2 seconds. Barn has a 2-1-0 record this meet with only 5 starters. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the 6-1-3-9-2 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 6-2-7/9-1-8/3-4…Prom Theme (6) nearly won at this level last time out here on Feb. 7. Made the lead in the stretch before getting caught in the late going. Returns as a beaten favorite in this spot, and the barn hits with .29% of those types. In 44 tries over this AW surface, this one has a very accomplished 10-15-5 record. Knows his way around the course, to be sure. Appealing Julia (2) won here two races back and returned to run a nice 3rd last time out. Lead in the stretch of that one, too. Trainer is having a solid meet and this one gets a new rider for the event tonight. In 10 starts here, this one has a 3-2-2 mark. Nice. My Aunt Tillie (7) won here two races ago, too. Goes from a route to a sprint tonight, and the barn hits with .25% of those kind. Look for more out of this one tonight. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 7-9-1-8-3-4 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 7/5-8-9-1/2-3-4…The first Key Play of the Night comes right here with Roma Delight (7). This 3YO Painter filly comes here from Laurel Park for a distinguished trainer, whose operation has won with .19% of the last 214 starters. This one was 2nd last time out and has been 2nd in 3 of the last 4 races. In 8 career starts, this one has 3 seconds and 1 third. Steady. Nice work here on Feb. 16. Looks ready. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and I strike a deal to bet the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two exactas. More on the top person.
4th: 8-10/4-1-5-3/6-9-2…Seattle Treasure (8) was awful last time out when racing on Jan. 2 here against much tougher. Gets a new barn operator and a new rider tonight. Same connections that nearly won here two starts back when claimed for $8,000. Now, this guy finds the bargain bin tonight. In the three previous runs before the last race, this one had 2 wins and a second. Look for a return to that level. Irish Proud (10) gets his first start for a new barn operator tonight. Trainer has not faired well over the last 160 mounts, but does have 2 seconds and a third in just 6 starts here this meet. In 6 starts over this track, this 6YO son of Proud Citizen has a 3-1-0 mark. Nice. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 4-1-5-6-9 in two smaller versions.
5th: 8-2/(13)-(14)-3-7/10-6-4/9-11-12-5…Honorable Memory (8) has not been out since last June. Ran poorly in that event at Churchill Downs. Now, this one turns up here and if the filly returns to the level of her first two career performances, she figures. Prominently. Trainer has won with .17% of the last 64 starters. Gets a top rider to take the reins, too. My choice. Yellen (2) is a 3YO filly by Fed Biz, who has been a rather big disappointment at stud. This one cost $60,000 at last year’s KEE 2YO Sale, and for the most part has not been near the winner at the wire. Like the work pattern here, though, and the barn is having a super meet — winning at .36% of the 53 starters. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 13-14-3-7-10-6 in two smaller versions.
6th: 4-8/1-2-7/3-6/5…My Sweet Baboo (4) was claimed last time out and now gets bumped up a couple of rungs in the claiming order. Won the last race easily and now will face much tougher. New connections win with .14% of those making the first start for the new barn operator, and with .27% of those making the 3rd start off the layup. May be able to make it back-to-back, even with the tougher foes. Heaven Escape (8) goes from the turf at CD last November to the AW surface for the first time. Barn hits with .25% of those kind. This one has flashed some speed in the past. I think the new rider will try to put this 5YO mare a little closer to the front here. Barn does NOT do too well coming off a layup, but this one has the look for a potential winner, too. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
7th: 9-4/1-11-3-2/5-8-7/10-6…Junket (9) is a 6YO gelding that I have used often this meet. In 3 starts this year, this son of Algorithms has a win over this track. Has faced much tougher in the past and now drops back down the pecking order. That should help this one, who gets the saddle from a trainer that has won with .20% of the last 60 starters here this meet. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-4 solidly in the exacta. I will key the 9-4 over/under the 1-11-3-2-5-8-7 in two smaller versions.
8th: 2/9-5/7-6…I will key my last Key Play of the Night in the finale. Cabot Trail (2) came with a nice run and made the lead late here last time out. Caught before the wire, though, in that one. Barn hits with .26% of those that return to the races as a beaten favorite, and with .22% in the claiming ranks. Worked very well before the last race and simply looks much the best in this crowd. I would be shocked if this one does not get claimed out of this one. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over / under the “all button.” I will also key the 2 over/under the numbers listed above.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
(Comments to Come Later Today / Off to See My Horses This a.m.)