|2020 Overall 150||150/50-45-56|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.33%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.56%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –101-150||67.33%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 92-136||67.65%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 46-136||33.82%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 23-4-9-5||17.39% Win / 78.26% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 24-5-9-5||20.83% Win / 79.17% ITM|
If you have not noticed yet, there is a big clue on how we did on the previous “Selection Show” before you ever open the link to our picks for the day.
Know what the hint is?
If so, please hit me with a “Direct Message” on the Twitter Account, and a “Louisville Thoroughbred Society” glass will be mailed to you.
On Friday night, we nudged home 3 winners out of the 8 races. Had three exactas to tag along, and one of those paid a rather handsome $30.70 for each $1 played.
Other than night, a ho-hum effort and returns. We will strive to do more tonight, as we close out the racing week in Northern Kentucky. Here’s our selections:
1st:6/1-2/7-3-4…It doesn’t take long to find the first Key Play of the Night. Whereas we have not been overly successful with our “KPN” picks so far on the win, catching only 17.39% winners out of 23 “choices” so far this meet, our “KPN” has hit the board a whopping 78.26% of the time. So…We need to win more. We need to keep having legit shots, too. In the first tonight, we will key on No Nay Always (6), a 3YO daughter of No Nay Never. This one has run only once in the career. Ran in a Stakes event on the debut at the Curragh in Ireland last May. Ran 8th on debut out of 13 horses to enter. Has been off since, but training regularly for the barn of Wesley Ward. Work sessions have been solid, if not spectacular. This gal gets Lasix for the first time tonight and drops all the way to the MCL $30,000 ranks, too. Rider has hit with .38% of the 21 mounts he has had for this barn this meet. I like the connections. I like the horse. I like the key play. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the numbers selected, and over/under the “all button” in a smaller dose.
2nd: 4-9/10-5-3-7/2-1…High Powered (4) could be a really square price by the time these guys get ready to pop from the starting gate and will get my designation as the first Upset Special of the Night. This 4YO gelded son of Shanghai Bobby is coming in off two performances where he has been well-beaten. Some may say or write that he has been trounced. But the connections drop this one for half of the previous claiming tag and the barn does win with .20% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Gets the meet’s top rider and the barn is have a solid meet with limited runners. I like the most recent work, too. Could surprise in this group. Pioneer Dancer (9) is my horse to beat. This 4YO son of Pioneerof the Nile is coming in off two straight wins here. Has absolutely loved the conversion to the AW surface. Has the pedigree to do well over it, and he has showed that with two late runs that have ended up with wins. Gets a new rider for the first time tonight. Barn does hit with .19% with those that are attempting a “repeat win” in the claiming ranks. Should be firing late again. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 10-5-3-2-1 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 8-6-10/13-9-4/1-11-12-(14)…Bennett (8) gets into this one with a ML odds mark of 6-1. I think that is definitely generous for this Indiana-bred son of First Dude. Last time out was Nov. 1 up at Indy Grand. Faced open company that day and ran a very nice, fast-closing 2nd and was beaten only a length. That was at tonight’s price point and the first time he got dropped to that level. May be well-spotted in this group, and the rider has 3 wins in just 22 rides this meet. Chance at a price. Florida Flash (6) comes from the barn of Dale Romans, and his steeds always have to be respected when dropped this far; this low; and at this track. The barn has only 1 third in the first 9 starts here this meet, though. Hmmm. Gets the meet’s top rider for the first time tonight and the barn does hit with .26% of those that get dropped this aggressively in one swoop. Big chance. Gun of Glory (10) will be making the first career start tonight and gets the hot rider — who has won with .28% of the first 75 rides at this venue. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 5 starters and the barn hits with .19% of those that run over the AW surfaces. Pedigree looks good on the AW. Chance III. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 6-13-9-4-1-11 in two smaller versions.
4th: 3-6/2-7-5/1-4…Kickin Kimberly (3) gets the drop off an impressive win for the impressive barn of Mike Maker. Trainer has hit with 25% of the 64 runners it has saddled here this meet. This one loved the transfer to the AW last time out. Ran off to a near 5-length win that night. Went 4 wide to do it, too. Same rider returns and the barn hits with .33% of those that drop off a win, and with .29% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Love the work here on Feb. 1. Love it. Looks like the real deal here. My Aunt Tillie (6) won the last time out here, too. Won by a skinny nose when coming from well back in the early going. Barns is having a super meet here, winning at .25% of the 36 runners to make the gate. Barn hits with .25% of those that won last time out, too. Chance. I bet the 3 to win/place only. I will box the 3-6 in the exacta. I will also key the 3 over/under the “all button.”
5th: 9-12/4-(13)-8/3-2-11…Estill (9) is pronounced “S-TUL” after the county in Eastern Kentucky, which has Irvine as the county seat. It is NOT pronounced “E-STILL” after some foreign version of making bourbon. Either way, the 4YO daughter of Bernardini and trained by the talented young barn master Thomas Drury should be called a winner tonight. Has run two good ones since moving here from New York in December. Has 2 seconds to show on the resume. Was beaten as the even-money favorite last time out, and this barn hits with .30% of those that return as a defeated fan’s choice. This one likes to push the pace from the get-go. Gets a huge rider switch over to the meet’s top rider. Should make it happen here. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-12 in the exacta. I will key the 9-12 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
6th: 9-1/2-8/5-4-6…Muny Me Too (9) drew off after setting the early fractions to win the last time out here on Jan. 4. Eased nearing the wire and still won by nearly 2 lengths. In 2 tries here now, the 4YO Indiana-bred son of Munnings has a win. Over the last 7 races, this one has hit the board 6 times. Barn is having a super meet here, too. Has won with .32% of the 28 horses to have started so far. Look for much out of this one. Durrett Lane (1) will start from the other extreme of the starting gate and is likely to push for the lead, too. Won the last time out against a notch above these types. Won at nearly 18-1 odds, though. You know the saying. If you don’t go to the wedding, make sure you don’t go to the funeral. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-1 in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under the “all button” in two smaller versions.
7th: 7-5/4-8/1-6-9…Riverboat Gambler (7) ran a good one here before tiring in the late going on Jan. 3. Lost by 4 lengths that day, but was easily in front of the rest. Broke the maiden at CD in September at the $50,000 level. Won by nearly 7 that day. In 10 starts, he has only 1 win, but does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds. Consistent sort should be close when the enter the stretch. Can he get the job done? Hope so. Going for Gold (5) may be the horse to beat. This one nearly won here last time out when in an optional-claimer for a barn that has won with only .08% of the last 208 starters. Rider is 0-for-5 for this barn in the last 60 days, too. But…Won three starts ago at CD in a MSW event. That was solid. If he can find that form again? Goodbye. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 4-8-1 in two smaller versions.
8th: 7-11-3/(13)/5-12-1/2-10…Promised Fame (7) was nearly a winner here last time out when facing a tougher group. Drops a run to the bargain bin and the 4YO daughter of Astrology should be a real threat. Loves to come from the clouds, so will need some racing luck with a top rider in the saddle. Of the last three outs here, has two nice seconds. Could get there this time. The Ash Factor (11) could be another Upset Special of the Night. This 4YO daughter of The Factor didn’t run well when bumped up to face winners and facing much tougher last time out. Was around for a little of it before spitting the bit. Now, gets the drop back down in class and the barn is very smart when they slot ’em. Barn has a 3-1-0 mark in 10 starts here this meet. This one is another deep closer. Marie’s Mandate (13) has to be considered if she gets in from the AE List. Has the speed to be a contender despite the ultra wide post. When she broke from the #10 hole at CD last June, she won. Could do it again here. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers. If the #13 gets in, I have to use in the mix, for sure. I key the 7-11 over/under the 3-5-12-1-2-10.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes:
I take Independence Hall. All day long. Very low odds, but I will bet to win and key over/under the “all button. This is one talented runner. Very talented. Could be ultra talented.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene