Total Day Results 8 / 2-0-4
2021 Overall 1,820 1820 / 683-645-852
Win % of Top Pick 37.53%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.93%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,230-1,820 67.58%
2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 18-32 56.25%
2021 Top Selections Win / TP 12-32 37.50%
“Key Horses” @ TP 2 / 0-1-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 275/ 124-62-24 45.09% Win / 76.36% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ TP 5 / 0-0-2 00.00% Win / 40.00% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Friday & Saturday’s races are completed)

Here’s our looks for Sunday’s card:

1st: 5-8/3-11/4-6/1A-1-9…Ames Mister (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at Turfway Park on Sunday afternoon — when the first post will go at the after-church hour of 1 p.m. ET. This 3YO gelded son of Summer Front will drop to the bargain bin and the lowest price tag yet for a barn that has won with .22% of 180 starts this year. Picks up a veteran rider who is a legend in these-here parts. Will make the first start for the new barn operation, which wins with .12% of those making the debut for these connections and with .21% when dropping this much at one time. Fits here. Stoked (8) nearly won at this same level last time out at Indy Gand on Nov. 2. Has raced over the AW four previous times and 4 times here in Northern Ky. Has never hit the board. But fits with these types. New rider is looking for first win of the meet. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-8 in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 3-11-4-6-1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 6-12/3-4/5-8-11-1/2-7-9/10…Money Lender (6) drops into the claiming ranks for the 2nd time. When last seen for the “for sale” tag was offered up, this one was 3rd and that was against tougher company. Barn wins with .21% when going from the MSW ranks into the MCL level. Gets a rider who has won a couple of races here this meet. Should fit with these. Nashchetta (12) is our first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is a whopping 30-1 in the ML, according to our good friends over at Brisnet.com. But I may take a little of that action. Ran 4th on debut at Churchill Downs. Now, moves up with the addition of blinkers. Barn has won with only .03% of 40 starters this year. But this one did work good here on Dec. 4. Chance at a huge price. I bet the 6-12 across the board and then box the 6-12 in the exactas. I will key the 6-12 over/under the 3-4-5-8-11-1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 1-2-12/7-8/3-9/4-10-(13)-(14)…Angelino (1) will get the saddle here from trainer Larry Rivelli, who has won with .33% of 427 starters this year. Picks up the red-hot Gerardo Corrales for the pilot’s job, too. Comes in off a nice 2nd at Hawthorne last time out. In 6 previous tries over the AW, this one has 2 wins and a third. Adds up for me. Drink (2) drops to half the price tag that he was offered up last time out. Ran 3rd while tiring at the wire just two starts ago at this same level. Has sped. Can come from off, too. In 4 starts here? Has 2 wins. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-8 in two smaller units.

4th: 3-2/6-7-11/8/4-9/1A-1-5-10…Son of Grace (3) is the ML favorite and will pick up the hottest rider in the land for this one. Another who hails from the Rivelli barn and this outfit wins with .23% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Ran them off their feet over the grass at Hawthorne last time out. Ran off by over 6 lengths at the wire. Never been on the AW, but this barn knows where to spot them. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 6-7-11-8 in two smaller units. 

5th: 11-12-1/(14)-2-6-9/3-10-7-8/(13)-4-5…Lavender Earl (11) will headline this group for me. The 3YO colt by More Than Ready comes in off a near-miss 2nd last time out when racing at Churchill Downs. Moves up from the MCL ranks to the MSW level here, but the trainer is winning at a .20% clip after 158 starts this year. Gets the hottest rider up. And, will be moving late. Has 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 4 tries here. I like. A lot. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 11 over/under the 12-1-14-2-6-9-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 1-11/2-4-5-8-12/3-9/6-10-(13)/7…My Miracle Man (1) drops to a career low price tag for this one after a competitive 3rd lasts time out against much tougher at Churchill Downs. If this 3YO son of Union Rags — who cost $90,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton October Sale — can duplicate that effort? Look out. Has speed. Can stalk the leaders. Rider has had a great 2021 and a man who seemingly always gives his mounts a shot. Like the rider. American Great (11) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 3YO gelded son of American Pharoah didn’t finish the fire the last time out at Santa Anita. Bit was spit. But this one crosses the Mississippi in search of better luck here and a switch to the AW. Gets a top rider, and this trainer does win with .14% when going from the MSW ranks into the MCL level. Got a shot here. I bet the 1-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-11 over/under the 2-4-5-8-12 in two smaller units. 

7th: 2-6-8/4-7-10/1-5-9-11/3…King’s Ovation (2) gets the tip of the hat here. This 3YO son of Not This Time looks solid in this shot. Has run two 3rds in a row over sloppy tracks coming in. In one previous AW try, he was 9th. But that was in the 2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks against the likes of Like the King. None of those kind in here. Like the works of late and the rider choice for the barn that wins with .13% over the AW. Solid price, too. Fort Moultrie (6) is 10-1 in the ML, and I love those odds. This Maryland-bred won over the turf at Arlington Park just two starts ago. Can toss the Stakes try last time out. Too tough. But this one has faced some good ones in the past, like Like the King, as well. My last “Longshot Special of the Day.” I will: Bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 8-4-7-10-1 in two smaller units.

8th: 2-6-10/5/9-11/8/7-3…Chelichna (2) nearly won up at Laurel Park in Maryland just two starts ago. Regressed a bit in the last one when moving to the AW at Woodbine. Just tried in that one. Now, ships here for a barn that has won with just .06% of the 62 starters this year. But this barn does well when dropping in class and picks up a solid rider for the mount. Love the recent work pattern. Interesting choice. Laugh It Off (6) is a first-timer in the barn of the young and talented Stephen Lyster. Has been racing in Maryland for another conditioner. Drops to the bargain bin here and if this one can come close to duplicating the form of the race two starts ago? Look out. I am on board here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene