|Total Day Results||8 / 2-2-2|
|2022 Overall — 32||32 / 13-12-8|
|Win % of Top Pick||40.63%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.38%|
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 22-32||68.75%|
|2021-22 Turfway / Top Selection ITM 91-154||59.09%|
|2022 Only / Top Selection ITM / TP 22-32||68.75%|
|2021-22 Turfway / Top Selection Win / TP 60-154||38.96%|
|2022 Only Turfway / Top Selections Win: 13-32||40.63%|
|2021-22 “Key Horses” @ TP 20 / 9-3-2||45.00% Win / 70.00% ITM|
|2022 Only “Key Horses” @ TP 6/ 4-0-0||66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” Overall in 2022 6 / 4-0-0||66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|2021-22 “Longshots of Day” @ TP 16 / 1-1-3||.06% Win / 31.25% ITM|
|2022 Only “Longshots of Day” @ TP 2/ 0-0-1||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
(Statistics will be updated after Friday and Saturday’s cards are completed)
Here’s our looks for Sunday:
1st: 3-6-8/5-7/1/4-2…Randello (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Sunday afternoon. The 4YO son of Capo Bastone will make the first start for the new barn operation after being claimed last time out here on Dec. 9. Ran a solid 2nd in that one as the beaten PT favorite. This barn has won with only .09% of the first 33 career starts and the rider has won with only 3 of 37 mounts this meet. Worked well on Jan. 13. Should fit with these types, despite moving up in class for this one. Thirsty Owl (6) drops to half the asking price of the last outing. Ran OK for that one, just tired at the wire. This drop should help immensely, and the barn wins with .17% when dropping this much at one time. Barn also wins with .20% when going from route to a sprint distance. Threat. Sandor Clegane (8) moves up in class after being claimed last time out, too. Ran on the lead for much of that one before giving up the ship in the late going. Returns as a beaten favorite here, too. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Hmmm. Interesting. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-11/1-6-7/3-5/2-12/4-9…Command Central (8) goes for a barn that is 0-for-14 this meet and a rider who has struggled since moving the tack up here following the Churchill Downs’ meet in late November. But? This horse may like the shorter distance here, and ran against much, much better in the past. Race three starts ago could make this one a winner here. Incitatus (11) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 4YO son of Ironicus was claimed last time out and goes to a barn that is just getting started. Has been running up against much tougher, too. Threat here if he likes the distance. I bet the 8-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-11 over/under the 1-6-7-3-5 in two smaller units.
3rd: 6-10-9/4/2-1-3/5-8-7…Trickizar (6) has won each of the last two and has not been worse than 2nd in the last 5. Over the last 9 races? Has 4 wins. Has 4 seconds. Now that’s pretty darn good. And, I lock up with this one again. After all? In 7 starts here? Has 5 wins and a second. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units. More with the 10-9-4 in that grouping.
4th: 7/1-4-5/3-8-10/2-9/6…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Irish Declaration (7). This 5YO son of Declaration of War goes for one of the best and hottest trainers on the grounds. Has won with 6 of 23 this meet. Wins with .23% in the last 356 starters on the AW, too. This one ran 5th here on Dec. 4 — but that was against much tougher. Should like this spot. A lot. I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. I use more with the 1-4-5 than the rest.
5th: 5-6-8/10-1/2-3-4-9/7-11-(14)…I always bet the # 5 in the fifth race. Right? Well, I do when the numbers add up that way, and they do this time. Faithful Ruler (5) gets the Lasix for the first time and he barn wins with .17% of the time when that happens. The blinkers come off and this one looks to have the speed to be dangerous in this spot. Barn wins with .151% when making the 2nd start off a layup. Looked dangerous last time out before losing steam at the wire. Should be fitter here. Shannonrun (6) gets the Lasix for the first time, too, and this one just ran 2nd here on Dec. 31. Came with a nice run late and just missed at the wire. Could fit in this spot nicely. Giant Nova (8) is another adding Lasix to the mix and this one has run very competitively against tougher in the first two races of the career. Barn wins with .14% when adding the anti-bleeder for the first time. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-4-2/3-1/5-6…Queen Judith (7) comes into this one off two straight appearance in Graded Stakes events. Was not a factor at the wire in either of those, but was not disgraced either. Finds a much softer spot here for a top barn operation. Rider has won with .20% of the last 15 mounts for this trainer. Look for a huge effort here. Deck of Cards (4) gets the Lasix for the first time and this 3YO daughter of Nyquist could be a tough out. Moves up after breaking the MSW last time out here on Dec. 2. Flashed speed in that trip. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Threat. Valentina Day (2) is another on the rise and will face winners for the first time here. This barn wins with .22% when making the graduation. Ran well last time here on Dec. 16. Gets a sneaky good rider up. No question this one has a big shot. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-1 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-4-9/11-12/1-2-10/6-(13)/8-5…Fort Moultrie (7) ran a huge one here on Dec. 12 and just missed with a late surge at the wire. In 4 tries here, now, this one has a win and a second. Trainer wins with .23% when making the 2nd start off the layoff, and with .21% of the last 38 to go over the AW surface. Look for this one to be a tough out here. Beatbox (4) goes for a top trainer on this grounds, and has won with .23% of those that won the last time out. Gets a top rider, who boosted this one home in front last time out. Classy outfit here. Bear Alley (9) could set the fractions and may play a little “Come Catch Me, If You Can,” with these. Won at Churchill Downs last time out and now gets a return match. Chance. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-12 in two smaller units.
8th: 12/(13)/5-10/2-9/7-6…The Sunday finale will give me my last “Key Play of the Day” — Turfy (12). This 4YO son of Producer is owned by Calumet Farm and will drop from the $15,000 claiming tag to the bargain bin here. Should like this drop and should be tough as heck to beat in this spot. The rider has won with 2 of 5 starts for this top barn operation. Trainer has won with .26% of the 27 starts here this meet. When dropping this much at one time? Barn wins with .38%. Hard to beat. I bet the 12 across the board and then key the 12 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 13, if that one draws in from the AE List. If not? More with the 5-10 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene