|2019 Overall 1,481||1,481/517-536-655|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.91%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.44%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –972 of 1,481||65.63%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 25-40||62.50%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 14-40||35.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 3-1-0-0||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 218-84-43-22||38.53% Win / 68.35% ITM|
A day for huge long shots on Wednesday night at Turfway Park. Not a day for my picks.
Snared only one out of the pack, and just two modest exactas to help ease the pain drain.
But we are looking for bigger and better on Thursday. Here’s a look at our top picks:
1st: 2-1/6-7-9-8…Golden Ready (2) comes from a barn that wins with .26% of those returning as a beaten favorite. This one ran 4th in the last outing and 3rd in the race before, both as he odds-on PT choice. Will be all out to hold on at the wire in this one, too, but does have enough speed to get to an early lead. Drop in class should help, as well. Trainer has scored with .21% of his 290 starts this year. Knows his way to the circle. Eli’s Coming (1) is 12-1 in the ML and is my first Upset Special of the Day. This one was claimed last time out for the $15,000 price tag. Trainer hits with .12% of those making the first start after the purchase, and the barn is off to a really good start here this Holiday Meet — with a 2-1-1 mark in the first 7 starts. Love the work here on Nov. 27. If this guy can duplicate the work? Must use for me. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
2nd: 2-9-6/3-4-7-8/5-1…Constancia (2) drops from the $12,500 price tag all the way to the basement bargain level of $5,000 tonight. Does have a nice record over the all-weather, going 2-1-2 in 6 lifetime starts. Ran very well against much tougher at Arlington Park on Sept. 21. Barn hits with .44% of those dropping down this far in one swoop. My first Key Play of the Day comes right here with the 3YO Street Boss filly. May be worth the purchase price here. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the 9-6-3-4-7-8 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 6-11-4/2-1-7/5-10…Las Ramblas (6) is the 6-5 ML favorite, and looks strong at this level today. Has raced twice in the career to date, both times in NY and against much tougher. Has two 4th place finishes to show on the record. Barn hits with .24% of those dropping from the MSW ranks to the MCL level for the first time. Interesting rider choice for a barn known for selecting new jockeys. Love the work here on Dec. 6. Looks poised for a big effort. Fireside Kitten (11) will break from the far outside and that may be a compromise position. But this 2YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy does appear to want to run on late in the going. Gets a top rider for this assignment, and the work on Dec. 7 suggests a good effort tonight. I don’t dismiss here. Almighty War (4) goes for a sneaky good trainer, who has a win in only previous start this meet. Been working at High Pointe Training Center for the first effort. May surprise a bit. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the 11-4-2-1-7 in two smaller versions.
4th: 11-4-6/8/9-1-(13)-5…This is a wide, wide, wide open affair and I will go with a little bit of an outsider, who will break from the from outside, as well — Dujac (11). This 7YO gelded son of Bernardini has 2 wins and a second this year and will be dropping all the way from the $12,500 price tag to the $5,000 level tonight. Last time here at this price tag, ran a disappointing 7th. But the winner of that one came right back to win the next out. Inconsistent sort. Either real good or real far back. I’m going for a good one — like the race two back. Nuttin’ Faster (4) is an Ohio-bred that will face open company in this spot. Coming off a huge layoff since last January. Work here on Nov. 23 was good, though, and this one has run well off a break before. Chance. Muntij (6) has a 4-1-1 record in 9 starts this year and figures with this grouping. Had a 3-race win streak earlier this year. Won two starts back, too. Will try. I bet the 11-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8 in two smaller versions.
5th: 2-5-(13)/8-11-9/6-7-4-3-12…Hyndford (2) was claimed last time out at Churchill Downs for a $10,000 tag. Now, he is moved up to try the $15,000 level here. Will be the first test over an all-weather surface, but this one has been facing much tougher in the career. Has raced twice that we know of against Graded Stakes company. Rider is off to a very nice start here, with a 3-1-4 record in the first 14 rides. Looks best. Zing Zang (5) looked to be cut out to be a good one for trainer Steve Asmussen. Ran up against some good ones earlier in the career. Has only 1 win in 9 starts this year, but is in for the lowest price tag of his career tonight. Won over the turf at Ellis Park back in August. Maybe that converts tonight. Will be coming very late. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta, if the 13 draws in. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 8-11-9 in two smaller versions.
6th: 6/5-7-2-4/1-3-8…Dancensing (6) is my next Key Play of the Day. This 3YO Tiznow filly is very well bred and is still owned by the WinStar Stablemates Racing LLC. Won the last time out at Churchill Downs against much, much tougher and that was the 3 victory in a row for this one. But…Was DQ’d from that one and holds onto the condition for tonight’s event. Don’t know much about this trainer, who will be making the third career start tonight. But this filly has a 2-4-0 record in the first 9 starts and it should have been 3 if not for drifting out late in the last effort. Look for more tonight. In 4 tries over the all-weather, this one has a win and 3 seconds. Experience counts on this surface. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the 5-7-2-4-1.
7th: 5-4-7/1/6-2-3-8…Hemp Hemp Hurray (5) gets the slight nod in this affair. Has not raced since last November. Goes to a new barn for the return flight. Barn hits with only .05% of those making the first start for the new connections. But the blinkers come off, and the barn wins with .23% of those. And, the barn can hit off the bench, too, winning at a .21% clip. Works have been solid for the return. Really like the move back on Nov. 2. Has shown ability in the past and will drop from running in a G2 event to a $12,500 claimer. If he has anything left, he should be able to handle these kind. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 5 over/under the 4-7-1 in two smaller amounts.
8th: 2-5/11-4-10/(13)-1-6-(14)/8-9…Jackpot Kitten (2) is another Kitten’s Joy progeny that I really like tonight. Barn hits with .23% of those that are starting in the MCL ranks, and this one comes form a dam that has 2 winners from 2 previous starters. This one has been training over this surface, and gets a top rider in the irons. This one also comes from a Stakes winning dam. Worth the $7,500 price tag on a claim? I think so. Modern Day Drifter (5) is another first time starter and this one comes from the barn of Wesley Ward. He hits with .28% making the career debut and with .22% of those starting for the first time in a claimer. Dam has 2 winners form 3 starters and this one has been working nicely here, too. This one may be haltered tonight, as well. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 11-4-10-13-1 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best/Gene