|2019 Overall 1,513||1,513/529-546-665|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.96%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.33%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –988 of 1,513||65.30%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 41-72||56.94%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 26-72||36.11%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 7-3-1-0||42.86%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 222-86-44-22||38.74% Win / 68.47% ITM|
We cruised in with 3 winners out of the 8 races held on Wednesday night at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky. Luckily, we also nailed exactas that returned $17.80, $23.40, $14.00 and $24.50 for each $1 played.
As a result of the combo, we had a positive return on investment, and, subsequently, a smile upon the face and the payroll.
We will journey back for a little more pre-Christmas joy tonight. Here’s a glimpse at our selections, which we are hopeful are full of toys for both girls and boy:
1st: 7/9-4/3/5-1A-2…The first Key Play of the Day comes in the opener and with Gotsomemojo (7). This 6YO gelded son of Paddy O’Prado is coming off a near-miss second here on Dec. 11. Ran well in the stretch, although he could not get past the winner. Barn hits with .14% of those making the 3rd start off a layup, and he looks like he is Florida-fit for this one. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the numbers listed. More so on the 9-4-3 than the others.
2nd: 2-6/7-5/8-1/9-3…Sugar Love (2) will move to the barn of a new operation tonight, for the first time. When this barn goes from MSW to the MCL ranks, it has won with 1 of 2. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Daughter of Candy Ride will be in for a tag for the very first time and should be worth something very close to the price tag. She is, after all, a daughter of a Stakes winner. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-6 in one solid exacta. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 7-5-8-1-9-3. More so over the first 2 numbers than the rest.
3rd: 8-1-11/9/2-3-7/4…Dissension (8) is my first Upset Special of the Night. This 9YO daughter of With Distinction has raced 9 times this year. No wins. But does have a second and 3 thirds. But over the all-weather surfaces, this one has a 4-1-1 mark in 9 starts. Consistent. Consistently solid over the poly. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9 in two smaller versions.
4th: 3-12/1-4-11/(13)-7-9-6…Mister Pollard (3) gets the nod in this one, after being claimed out of a winning performance two starts ago. Came back to run against better and was out-distanced at the wire. Still, he held on for 4th. Has returned to work solidly enough. Will need to improve to make it happen, but, she has a chance. Keyed On Top (12) has raced 8 times this year with a 1-1-1 mark. In two previous runs here, though, he has never hit the board. The barn scores with .28% of those that challenge the “poly.” I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box those 2 in one exacta. I will key the 3-12 over/under the 1-4-11-7 in two smaller mixes.
5th: 12/(13)-1-6/5-9/8-3/2-4…My second Key Play of the Day is Unforeseen (12). Despite the fact that this 2YO filly must break from the far outside and will likely lose some position early on, the daughter of Carpe Diem is coming off two really good races over the sod and should convert to the all-weather surface. The barn has a 1-1-1 mark in 4 races here this meet, and is a top operation. Gets the meet’s top rider up. And, the work on Dec. 7 at Skylight in Jefferson County was spot on. Looks the best here. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under the 13-1-6-5-9-8-3 in two smaller versions. More over the first three than the rest.
6th: 8-5/4-6/7-1/3-2…What a nice race this has turned out to be. I give the edge to Honey Parade (8), who will get the saddle for the first time by Emma Lyster. This young lady is married to Mack Lyster and is sister-in-law to Stephen Lyster. Top horsemen and women. The prior trainer got days and is serving his time in purgatory, thus the trainer switch. This gal won 2 in a row before running a really nice third last time out. Has the speed to dictate a great spot and should be able to kick home against these types — although a really nice field. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-5 in one exacta. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 4-6-7-1 in two smaller versions.
7th: 7-4/6/9-1-5/3-8-2…This is another dandy affair, and I will give the slight edge to Toma Todo (7). This 2YO son of English Channel only cost $11,000 as a weanling in November of 2017 at KEE. But the first outing at Churchill Downs back in May was special. Ran over the sod that day and came from the back of the pack to win pulling away at the wire. Look and see who ran 3rd in that outing. Peace Achieved. Later won a Stakes and went on to the Breeders’ Cup. Nice. This one has been working steadily for the barn since the hiatus. Looks ready off the work pattern. If he can flash the same skill set he did in the opener? Tough to beat. Anna’s Fast (4) certainly lived up to her name on debut at KEE in April. Ran off to a 51/2-length win on debut. Never a contest as the odds-on favorite. Was shipped to Royal Ascot after that and ran poorly across the pond in June. Off since then. Trainer knows how to coach a 2YO and can def win off the bench. Tallies with .21% of those away from the starting gate this long. Nice work here on Dec. 13. Looks to be the one to beat if sharp enough off the layup. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-4 in one exacta. I am stern with this one. I key the 7-4 over/under the 6 in two lesser versions, and then key the 7-4-6 over the 9-1-5-3 in a smaller (yet) exacta.
8th: 4-1/5-3-8/(14)-11-2-7…Afleet Moment (4) will make his first start for new trainer Chelsey Coady — who used to be the assistant trainer for Buff Bradley and whose family operate the best “track photographer” business in the business. This one came off a near layup to run 4th at Gulfstream Park West last time out. The winner of that one came right back to win again. This son of Uncle Mo only cost $4,000 in November. So, a bargain basement try here. Will be interesting to see how he takes to the poly. Taranto (1) is another coming out of Florida. Ran 4th last time at GPW, as well. Got beat less than 3 over the sod there. Will be mighty tough in this spot if he handles the poly and can get a clean trip from the rail. I bet the 4-1 across the board (1 is the horse to beat). I box the 4-1 in one exacta. I key the 4-1 over/under th 5-3-8-14-11-2-7 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene