|Total Day Results||8 / 3-0-4|
|2021 Overall 1,876||1876 / 700-660-880|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.31%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.80%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,258-1,876||67.06%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 46-88||52.27%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 29-88||32.95%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 11 / 5-3-1||45.45% Win / 81.82% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 284/ 129-64-25||45.42% Win / 76.76% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ TP 12 / 0-1-2||00.00% Win / 25.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
We will post only one day of live racing picks until the “Big Guy in the Red Suit” — who can’t make wait, by the way — will command the biggest race of the year this Saturday. Ole’ Santa will race around the world and against the clock, once more, to get all the gifts delivered to the good boys and girls from pillar to post; from gate to wire.
So, let’s make the most of this final pre-Christmas shopping list and get some extra cash flow going for the big day on Saturday — Christmas 2022.
Here’s a look at our picks:
1st: 4-2-3/1-5/8/6-7…I will saddle up with Tallestofthetall (4) in the ole’ lid-lifter up at the “New & Improved” Turfway Park on this final race card before Christmas 2022. This 5YO gelded son of First Samurai comes in off a better-than-looks 4th up at Woodbine when racing longer and against better. Shortens back up here and goes to a new barn operation for the first time. Barn is winning at a .20% clip in just 5 starts this meet, but does have 2 seconds and a third to boost the ratings. Rider has won with .40% of the last 5 for this barn, too. On the AW, this one is 4-1-4 in 16 starts. In 8 starts here? Has a 2-1-2 record. That makes this one a real threat. English Challenge (2) is by one of the best AW sires in the world, and comes in off a thorough beat-down against tougher last time out at Churchill Downs. Has been over the AW on 9 previous occasions, though, and sports a 2-3-1 mark. Has a 1-2-1 record in 7 starts here, as well. Barn wins with .27% when going from the dirt to the AW. Wow numbers. High Spirits (3) nearly won here on Dec. 3, when closing from far back to just by by 21/4 lengths at the wire. If this rider can motivate this one to move a bit earlier, then odds improve. Trainer wins with .19% of those making the second career start under his watch. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over / under the 1-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-5/1-8-9-10/7-6…Junior Bug (3) gets the nod here after winning the last time out by 31/4 lengths. Does lose that condition and will have to move up now to face tougher. But this will be the 3rd start off the layoff and the barn wins with .36% of those kind. Also, trainer wins with .40% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Gets a top rider for the assignment. Will have to beat this one, which does have speed and can carve out a good trip. To Kalon (5) moves up in class after a near miss here on Dec. 5. Came rolling in the stretch to lose by less than 2 at the wire. Was shuffled around throughout that affair after drawing the post in the gate assignments. Look for more with a cleaner break. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 1-8-9-10 in two smaller units.
3rd: 6-2-4/(13)/10-8-9-3/1-7-11-12…Princess Nina (6) gets the star treatment here, for me. This 3YO filly drops to the $25,000 level for the first time for this trainer — who is having another star-studded meet. This one ran very well back in the summer at Indy Grand. Does not have AW experience, and that can be a factor if the horses have not being training over the Tapeta. This one has been doing that. Barn has gone 2-0-1 in the last six outings. Interesting. Tiltingatwindmills (2) put on a really good show in the last outing. Lost by just a length in that one. Rider has won with .26% of the last 38 mounts for this one. Polka Polenta (4) has pure speed. Won the last time out when sprinting a mile. Let’s see if she can hold her spot at the wire. I bet the top three across the board and then box those same 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 13 in two smaller units. If the 13 does not get in? I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-8.
4th: 4-11/6-1/2-3-7/10-5-12…You always bet the #4 in the 4th race, right? Well, I do when my numbers add up that way. In this case, they do. Sweet Queen Bee (4) has been facing far tougher and now drops from the $50,000 level all the way to the $15,000 price tag. Should appreciate the class drop, and this one did break the MCL for $30,000 at KEE back in April. Fits here. To be sure. Likely to be claimed, but what the heck. Let’s cash a bet. Meet’s top rider gets the all here. Look out. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-11 in the exactas. I will key the 4-11 over/under untie 6-1-2-3-7-10 in two smaller units. More with the 6-1 than the rest.
5th: 1-(13)-4/12-(14)-2/9-10/7-11-8-3/5-6…Nay Say (1) is a very talented 2YO filly by No Nay Never, who has been lights out as a young stallion. The one will make the 2nd start off a layoff, and the barn wins with .27% of the last 200. Sharp work here on Dec. 17. Rail is winning at .19% rate and the barn wins with .33% over the AW. Constitution Gal (13) should be a handful if the 2YO draws in from the AE List. This one was purchased for $195,000 at a 2YO Sale earlier this year. Has run in the money twice — including a 2nd in the Astoria Stakes at Belmont Park in June. Could be ready to pop in the MSW ranks. Madamoussepousse (4) is another from the barn of Wesley Ward, and this one gets the services of the meet’s go-to rider. Ran OK on the turf at Belmont in the career debut. Pushed the pace steadily in the first route race and just faltered in the end. Cuts back to the sprint distance again here. Take note of that. Hint. Hint. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 13-12-14-2-9-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 5/4-6/7/1-2/3…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Tasweya (5). This 2YO daughter of Frosted is coming out of a Stakes race at Aqueduct back in November. Ran her icicles off until the late stages. Now, she drops back into a sprint distance and that could help this one immensely. Barn wins with .17% when going route to a sprint. Gets a rider who has turned heads locally. Look out here. I bet the 5 across the board and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 4-6-7 than the rest.
7th: 4-6-9/1-10/3-5-7-11/2-12/8…Surrealist (4) gets a slight edge in this well-balanced and deep field. This 3YO daughter of Painter comes from a sire who does well with his progeny on the AW surfaces. Barn wins with .19% when shifting sands from the dirt to the AW. Rider has won only 1-of-23 to start this meet, but is highly respected for the work that he puts in. This one broke the maiden over the slop at KEE just two starts ago. Look out here. Look out. Temper Time (6) ran off to win by 13 lengths last time out. But now must face winners for the first time. Barn wins with .16% when moving up for this graduation present. Working good. Rider is holding his own. Best speed in the race. May be tough to catch. Alydiva (9) has a 2nd in only previous try here, and experience over this surface makes a huge difference on normal circumstances. Rider has teamed up to go 2-2-1 in the last 7 for this trainer. Wow numbers. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 6-1-10-3-5-7-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 1/3-6-11/4-8-10/5-7-9/2…The finale is my last “Key Play of the Night,” and our last chance to earn some pre-Holiday money for the presents that we purchased and placed under the tree so green. Queen Louise (1) nearly won last time out at Churchill Downs and that was against much tougher. Did win the previous two calls to the post. In 4 tries over this AW surface, this one has a second and two thirds. Knocking on the door, per usual. Now, gets the lowest price tag of her career. Look out. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the -6-11-4-8-10-5 in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene