|Day Results||8 / 4-2-2|
|2020 Overall 1676||1676 / 595-577-735|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.50%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.93%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,085-1,676||64.74%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 5-8||62.50%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 4-8||50.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 2-2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 233-86-48-32||36.91% Win / 71.24% ITM|
Did I tell you guys that I love to handicap horses running over Tapeta?
I did it for the first time on Wednesday at Turfway Park. I won the first four races and won with two of my Key Plays of the Day.
Off and running.
The next four races? I didn’t fare so well. Didn’t post another winner. So much for my handicapping prowess moving up on the AW surface?
But we hit exactas that returned the likes of $10.40, $9.00, $47.80 and $10.00 for each $1 played in the first four races.
Over the next four, we hit exactas that returned $0.00, $13.80, $84.80 and $30.80 for each $1 played.
Going to love this new and improved Turfway Park. Well, at least for one day / night.
Here’s our looks for Thursday’s card. Let’s keep the good times rolling.
1st: 4-10/11-2/8-12/3-1…Ilha Do Mel (4) drops from the $30,000 tag to the $15,000 level for this one and the barn wins with .33% when getting this kind of class relief. In the MCL ranks, all told, the trainer wins with .21% of the last 33 runners. Gets a top rider for this market and should be a tough out in this spot. Dixieland Dream (10) is our first Longshot Special of the Day. This 3YO, Florida-bred has not raced since February and will make the debut for the new barn operation tonight. But? This one is working very well for the return and the rider is better than you know about. Has won with 1 of 2 for this barn operation in the last 60 days. Chance. I bet the 4-10 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 4-10 over/under the rest of the numbers listed – but more with the 11-2-8-12.
2nd: 7-1-6/8-4/3-2…Traci’s Greeley (7) will go from the sprint distance back to the route distance of the flat 1-mile tonight and the barn wins with .17% when stretching out. Better yet, the barn wins with .20% when converting from the main track over to the AW surface. Gets a rider who “gets Turfway.” One of the top in this track’s recent history. Works of late are spot on, too. Will flash some speed and play a little “Come Catch Me If You Can.” Sheesa Pontiac (1) drops in class today, as well, and will fall into the bargain bin for the first time since being claimed here in January. Ran 2nd that night. Has only 3 wins in 28 starts, but does have 7 seconds and 4 thirds. Underneath? That’sthewaytodoit (6) goes from a sprint to a route and this barn wins with .19% of the last 153 to do that. Gets a top rider up and the works are solid over this new track, too. In 9 starts over an AW surface, this one has a 2-1-2 mark. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 1-8-4-3-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-2-6/3-10/4-9/1-5-7…Dance or Stroll (8) won the last time out and now drops to a lower price tag for this one tonight. Barn wins with .22% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks, and in 23 lifetime tries over the AW surface? Has a 11-4-3 record. Nice. Very nice. Should be coming late with a real purpose. Love the rider choice here, too. Our Promise (2) was a near-miss 2nd last time out and in 13 lifetime runs over the AW surface, this one has a 2-4-2 mark. Over the last 8 races, this one has hit the board in 7. Consistent sort and a top rider for this market takes the reins. Look out. Say It Sweetly (6) will be making the 3rd start off a layup, and the barn wins with .23% of the last 62 attempts with one of these types. Has hit the board in each of the last 4 and has a win in two previous runs over an AW surface. Shot for sure. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 6-3-10-4-9-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 6-11-5/2-1/3-7/9-8…Atmos (6) has one of his two career wins over the previous Turfway Park AW track and will drop to the near-bottom of the ranks for this one tonight. Has been close against tougher, and should relish a return to Northern Kentucky and these types. Rider has won with .13% of the last 55 mounts for the top KY barn operation and looks well spotted for this attempt. Uncle Earl (11) ran a just-missed 2nd two starts back and has a win and a second in two previous runs at Turfway Park (past). In 8 career starts, this one has hit the board on 6 occasions. Consistent sort may be a tough out here, too. Mr. Mutadda (5) won just two starts back and will be making the 2nd start off a recent layup. Over the last 5 starts, has a win and two 2nds. Could be the speed if the new rider decides to motor early. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-11 over/under the 5-2-1-3-7-9-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 11-1-8/9-10-(14)-(13)/3-7-4-6-5…It’s Mine (11) has not been out since May, but goes to a new barn operator, who just may be the hottest Thoroughbred trainer in all of North America. Just won the Churchill Downs’ Training Title and now has his sights and horses set for the new and improved Turfway. This one is coming off a break, but the barn wins with .17% of those returning from this long a vacation. Woks are good enough to make this one a threat, and the connections paid a whopping $410,000 for this 3YO daughter of Medaglia d’oro at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Looks poised. Looks ready. I go here with my first Key Play of the Day. I will bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the 1-8-9-10-14-13-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 9/1-7-12/6-(13)-11-8/5-2-3-4…The second Key Play of the Day comes right here with Kurilov (9). This 7YO horse is trained by Chris Hartman, who is as steady as they come and as good with a good horse as anyone around. This year, in 320 mounts, the barn has won with a .17% clip against some of the toughest circuits. This one has never run over an AW surface, but drops to a career-low price tag here and nearly won two of the last five. Look for more out of this one tonight. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed – with more on the 1-7-12-6 than the rest.
7th: 8-10/11/4-3-7/9-1-6/(14)…What a nice race here to be the featured event. I will go with the duo sent North from the barn of trainer Brad Cox. Set Piece (8) gets a slight edge in my handicapping numbers, due to the fact that the 4YO gelded son of Dansili is a perfect 3-for-3 over an AW surface. Has run up against some real good ones of late, after arriving from “across the pond.” But any of the last three efforts puts this one right in the mix. Gets the blinkers for the fist time tonight and the barn wins with .24% getting the shades for the initial time. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .30% of those. My pick. But if he is to win? Will have to be at his best. He will run up against teammate Mr. Misunderstood (10). This 6YO son of Archarcharch has carved out a grand career for his connections since being moved to the turf course. In 27 lifetime tries over the sod, he compiled a record of 12-4-4 and is closing in on the prestigious $1 million mark in career earnings. If he gets that achievement? Got the blinkers last time out. Ran a very solid 4th. Before that? Had hit the board in three straight against some tough customers. The one to beat, for sure. The one I will be rooting for, to be sure. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 11 in one stern exacta, as well. I will key the 8-10 over the 4-3-7-9-1-6 in a smaller version.
8th: (13)/2-7-1-8/(14)-4-5-12…Sunday Scheming (13) is on the AE List and will need some serious luck just to get into the race. But if this 3YO daughter of Constitution does make the gate? She will become our third and last Key Play of the Day. Credentials are certainly here for this one, who won the last time out when at Gulfstream Park in July. Barn wins with .21% off this type of a layup. Working well for the return. Looks like a bargain sale here, and the best of this group. But? Must get in the race to win it. If not? Wide, wide, wide open event. I’ll give the edge to Queen of Verona (2). This one drops down two class rungs and the barn wins with .23% of those. Broke the maiden for $30,000. Now offered up for the $5,000 tag. Gets a top rider for this market and should be a tough out if she can make the lead. I bet the 13 to win/place/show and key the 13 over/under all the rest if she gets in. If not? I will bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-7-1-8 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the 7-1-8-14-4-5-12 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene