|Both Totals:||13 / 2-5-5|
|2021 Overall 1,905||1905 / 712-668-891|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.38%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.74%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,279-1,905||67.14%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 58-104||55.77%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 39-104||37.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 13 / 5-3-2||38.46% Win / 76.92% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 289/ 129-65-26||44.64% Win / 76.12% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ TP 14 / 1-1-2||.07% Win / 28.57% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
We are back to finish off the 2021 calendar year with a real bang this Thursday night. We are hoping that these are the first of the celebrations that will lead all the way through New Year’s Eve on Friday and New Year’s Day on Saturday.
Here’s our looks at the Turfway Park card this Thursday:
1st: 8-(13)-5/2-12/1-3/9-4-7…Miss Getty Up (8) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on Thursday night. This 3YO Get Stormy filly will drop to the bargain bin for the first time and out of a respectable 5th in a $15,000 MCL event here on Dec. 4. Flashed some real desire and effort in that one. If she can duplicate that effort here? She will be a tough out. Barn wins with .18% when dropping this much at tone time and the trainer has a win in 5 starts here this Holiday Meet. Look for this one at the wire. Bells of Joy (13) could factor if the 3YO Bellamy Road filly draws in from the AE List. Ran 3rd last time out at Hawthorne and does have a second and 3 thirds now in 9 efforts. Chance, if in the gate. Anna’s Moonlight (5) will drop another rung and into the “bin” here. Has done OK over the turf, and should factor here if the cutback in distance helps. Barn wins with .09% when going from a route to a sprint distance. Gets the meet’s top rider up. That should assist. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-13-5 over/under the 2-12 in two smaller units. I will key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well.
2nd: 1-5/3-4-7-9/2-8/6…Heat of the Night (1) gets the rail and the nod in the second half of the pure daily double. This 3YO gelded son of Summer Front returns as a beaten favorite and this barn wins with .26% of those kind. Gets the meet’s top rider up, too, and that surely will help the cause. The barn is 0-0-0 in 8 starts so far, but this one could help right the ship a bit. Has run three times previously over the AW. Has a second up at Presque Isle. This one did run in a G1 Stakes at Woodbine last year as a 2YO. Held his own, too. Fits with these. Altmeister (5) drops from the $30,000 level to half of that asking price here. Won the last time out, too, and will face winners for the first time. Barn has won half of the 4 starts this Holiday Meet and goes with a relative unknown in the saddle. Interesting choice. Figures off the speed numbers previously posted. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-5 in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 3-4-7-9-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 9-3-6/12-4/1-2-8/(13)-11-10…Midnight Shift (9) drops from the MSW level here last time out to the $30,000 tag here. Barn wins with .21% when making this drop and with .16% over the AW surface the previous 58 tries. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Will be coming late. Needs a little earlier motivation, and that may be the reason for the quicker work on Dec. 24. Could pop. Valley Vista (3) ran very well before tiring in the career debut, and that’s for a barn operation that does not fully crank up for the initial run. Barn wins with a much better .10% on the second try. Still looking for the first win of the meet, after 14 attempts, but this one has the look for a real contender. Connections paid $175,000 for this one at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Poquito Man (6) ships in from Chicago and drops into the MCL ranks for just the 2nd time. Maybe? I bet the 9-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 12-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 12-3-11/(1A)-8-9/1-5-6-10…Snake Bite (12) draws the extreme outside and that is never a great sign, but this 4YO son of Violence has the ability to overcome. Has run here 6 times. Has not won yet, but does have a 2nd and three 3rds. Drops to the bargain bin again here and returns as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .37% of the last 65 to qualify for that title. Threat. Mr. Banyan (3) is our first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 3YO gelded son of Paynter drops a level for the “bin” and will make the 2nd start off the layoff. Barn wins with .15% of those kind. Has a 2nd and a 3rd in 6 previous runs here. Rider is off to a very slow start this Holiday Meet, but is much better than the record indicates. Niagara Gold (11) just broke the maiden last time out here when trying the AW for the first time. Moves up to face winners for the first time and the barn wins with .10% of those kind. Has stalking speed, but gets a new rider here. I bet the 12-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over the entry-8-9 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-12-9/3-7/2-8/10-(13)-11-4…You always bet the #5 in the 5th race, right? Well, I do when my numbers add up that way. This time? They do. Love On the Rocks (5) will go to the gate for the first time as a gelding and the barn is having another fantastic meet here. Has gone 2-0-3 in the first 10 starts and this one comes in off a 2nd at Churchill Downs back in November. Barn wins with .27% of those making the 2nd career start. Adds up for me. Noble Jon (12) must break from the far outside, but gets the meet’s top rider for the assignment and will get the boost of Team Brad Cox behind him, too. Will make the career debut, and this barn wins with .24% in the MSW ranks. Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and has thrown a SW, too. Sharp work here on Dec. 19. Has the look for a real contender. I use. American Pure (9) is another from the Cox barn and another first time starter. Dam of this one has a winner from 2 starters, so far. Works are very good. Dam was a Stakes-winner, too. Gets a top rider up. I bet the 5-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over (only) the 3-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 8-10-9/5-6-3-4-1A/1-2-7…Gigging (8) could be a solid surprise in this event. The 5YO was claimed just two starts ago and ran a very credible race at Oaklawn Park last time out against much, much better. Barn has and is claiming a lot of horses these days and has a 1-0-2 mark in 5 starts here this meet. Look for this one to be coming very late. But? I definitely think he will be coming. Reward Night (10) won at Ellis Park just two starts ago, but that was back in August. Has only run once since. Barn wins with .13% off this kind of a break and the work on Dec. 23 was solid. Gets the son-in-law in the irons and that never hurts. Threat. Royne (9) goes for a trainer who knows a lot about the AW surfaces. Invented the stuff in these here States. Broke the MSW last time out at Aqueduct. Barn wins with .10% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Looks perfectly placed here. I bet the 8-9 across the board — take note. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 10-5-6-3-4-1A in two smaller units.
7th: 8-9-10/4/5-7-3/6-11/1-2…Eye of the Cat (8) goes for a trainer who has won 2 of 3 here this meet, and is one of the best in the game. Picks up a solid and aggressive type in the saddle. In two previous tries over an AW surface, this one has a victory. That came at Arlington park back in July. Stalking style seems to be the perfect set-up for this track these days. Look out. Juanita’s Express (9) is my next “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 3YO son of Fed Biz broke the maiden last time out in August and at Indy Grand. Been off since. But the works are OK and the trainer can spring a surprise on you every now and again. Chance. Donegal Bay (10) will get the first start for the new trainer, who has a 1-2-0 record in the first 4 outs here. This one figures with the meet’s top rider taking the job. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
8th: 11-2-8/12-4/6-9/5-7/1-3…Annie Bonnie (11) gets the nod in the ole’ nightcap, and this will be our final “Longshot Special of the Night.” This one is listed at 10-1 in the ML, and I would be happy to take that at PT. This is a first time starter for trainer Tommy Drury, who just won one here the other day. This one is training very well and picks up the same rider who booted one home for the barn. Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and I like the ownership group here, too. Looks good to me. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 11 over/under the 2-8-12-4-6-9 in two smaller units, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene