|2019 Overall 1,449||1,449/506-525-645|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.92%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.56%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –953 of 1,449||65.77%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 6-8||75.00%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 3-8||37.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 0-0||0.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 215-83-43-22||38.60%|
In our first tour of duty at handicapping the card at Turfway Park, we ran up 3 wins in the first 8-race card and we squeezed out a pretty nice day at the register, too. Hit the final Pick 3. Scored the last 3 exactas, that returned $12.20, $20.40 and $26.50 for each $1 played. And, we had tickets that returned $18.20, $18.80, $14.40 and $6.40 for each $2 played across the board.
Not a bad night at the ole ball yard.
Here’s trying to do a little better with a return to action tonight:
1st: 11/2-9-12-10/(14)-8-1-7…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Prickley Kitten (11). This 3YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be a prime claim possibility in this spot, too. Throw out the last start at Gulfstream Park, when facing much tougher, this one had two really nice runs in a row and has 2 seconds and a third in 5 career starts. Work on Nov. 10 at the Trackside Training Center in Louisville as spot on. Will make the first career start for the new barn operation, and they hit with .38% of those making the barn debut. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then key the 11 over/under the 2-9-12-10-(14) in a good number. Over (only) the 8-1-7.
2nd: 5-10-7/9-2/4-1A-6…Bar Rag (5) drops from the $16,000 level to the basement today, and should relish the class relief. This Indiana-bred ran well over the mud at Indy Grand back in July against open company. Has been off form since then, but the barn hits with .20% of those dropping this far and gets a rider who does well here. War Eagle’s Love (10) did not run well at Churchill Downs in the last outing, but was simply overmatched in that one after a half mile. Gets dropped here, and if you go back two starts ago, this one ran well at KEE. Chance. Triple Kapalua (7) won the last time out, but that was Ellis Park in August. That was a major improvement over the previous form. Has been off since, but working OK down at Churchill Downs. Barn hits with .29% of those trying to repeat at the claiming level and with .23% of those that won the last race. Has a third over this track in only previous try on the all-weather. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 10-9-2-4-1A in two smaller versions.
3rd: 10-11-5/12-6/4-3-7-8-9-(13)/1-2…Elevententeetime (10) will be making her first start for the new barn after being claimed the last time out. Had an eventful trip in that one and tired mightily at the end. Go back two starts, and this one ran much better against much better. Like the work here on Dec. 1, too. Breeding is there. Mom is a Stakes winner. Trainer hits with .29% of those going from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint. My solid choice. Starvana (11) could spice up this odds rack a bit here. In 6 previous runs, has a second and 3 thirds. Likes to hang at the end, but gets a new rider that can help. I use. Vegan Goes Best (5) goes for a barn that hits with .28% of them that return as a beaten favorite. Ran well in that race at Churchill Downs and has plenty of speed to carve out a good trip. Barn hits with .24% of those that run in the MCL ranks, too. I bet the 10-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-5 over/under the 11-12-6-4-3-7 in two smaller versions.
4th: 5-10-6/7-(14)-2-9/8-1-(13)/3-4-12…Creative Courage (5) will be dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time tonight, and this barn hits with .26% of them. Does well with shippers, too, winning at a .20% clip. Barn having a good year and this one has a lot of versatility on how best to use the speed. Junket (10) was claimed last time out, when he nearly won going 11/16-miles. Barn hits with .24% of those running for the first time after the purchase. In 5 previous runs over the all-weather, this one has a win, 3 seconds and a third. History to use. Rio Seco (6) could add some intrigue to this mix, as well. Speedster gets a very talented “speed rider” in the saddle for the first time. Barn hits with .12% of those making the second start off the layoff, and in 14 career starts over the all-weather? Has a 3-3-3 mark. I use. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 10-7-14-2-9-8-1 in two smaller versions.
5th: 10-9-12/2-6/(13)-4-5-1/7-8…Between the Hedges (10) — a 3YO daughter of Union Rags — was a selection of mine at the recent Churchill Downs meet, but was scratched before post time. Returns in this spot. Love both previous races. Likes to rally late, and that style fits over the all-weather. Gets a top rider up, and the barn does well with the switch from dirt to the all-weather. My solid pick here. Miss Mosaic (9) could run a huge one with the addition of Lasix tonight. Looked to have speed to carry the distance last out, but spit the bit. May have bled in that one. Look for big improvement here. She’s Hot Today (12) came running in the last outing at Churchill Downs. Trainer does well over the all-weather, winning at a .25% clip. I bet the 10-9 to win/place/show. I box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 10-9 over/under the 12-2-6 in two smaller versions.
6th: 8-5/1-6/4/2-9-3…Naughty Joker (8) returns to the racing action today after a layoff since April. Ran horrible in the G2 Appalachian Stakes in that one. May have sustained an injury in that one, too. Has worked well for the return (Nov. 16 here, in particular). Gets the blinkers for the first time today, and the barn hits with .25% of those. Barn also can win off the bench, winning at a .21% clip. Look for a huge one out of this one today. Into Trouble (5) has hit the board in 4 of the last 5 outings. But this 3YO daughter of Into Mischief usually finds a way to lose, rather than fighting out a way to win. In 14 previous runs, this one has 4 seconds and 2 thirds versus 2 wins. Under? I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two more. Solid. Love the 8 here.
7th: 4-3/10-6-7/8-1-11-(13)/1A-5-12…Rocking the Boat (4) looks well spotted for this one tonight. Has closed well in the last two against much tougher. Connections spent $200,000 for this son of Arch, and the switch to the all-weather should not be an issue. Has raced in Graded Stakes company before — including a third in the G3 Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park in 2018. If he can find that old form? Look out. Lanier (3) won easily over the all-weather at Presque Isle last time out. In 35 career starts now, this one has 10 wins, 8 seconds and 3 thirds. In 10 lifetime tries over the all-weather, has 3 wins and 4 seconds. Experience edge over the surface. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 10-6-7. I key the 4-3 over (only) the 8-1-11 in a lesser amount.
8th: 9-(14)-2-3/12/13-8-1-7…Dragon Drew (9) is a former Stakes winner who will now run for $7,500 — the lowest price tag he has ever seen. Love the work on Nov. 10. And, this one should have a dry race track for the first time in years. Should love the surface switch. May find a new home right here. Worth a real shot at this price tag level. If he can convert, he can have a field day at Turfway Park all winter long in the Starter Allowance races to come. Love this one. Stayonthegrind (2) is a 3YO son of Birdstone that I purchased as a yearling and then sold, privately, before his first race. Had a huge win over this track last December. Left at the gate in that one. Gave the leaders many, many lengths. Came with a rush to win by 4 in an awesome performance. Has not bee the same since then. But…he’s done it once. May do it again at a huge price. I’m rooting. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene