||8 / 3-3-3
|2022 Overall — 2219
||2219 / 751-800-1031
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1420-2219
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP 22-32
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 10-32
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 7/2-2-1
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8
||47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 329/ 135-71-33
||41.03% Win / 72.64% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0
||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2
||16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6
||21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Turfway Park’s Wednesday card is completed)
Here’s our looks at the Thursday billing:
1st: 9-2-1/10-3-7/6/5…Tropic Strom (9) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the new and improved Turfway Park on Thursday night. First post is 5:55 p.m. ET. This 3YO gelding will make his first start for the new barn operator and the trainer wins with .20% of the last 66 to make the barn debut. Sharp work here on Dec. 3. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Lots to like. Scotch No Rocks (2) ran a solid 2nd at Churchill Downs last time out at this same level. Has hit the board in 4 of 9 lifetime and will try the AW for the first time. Barn wins with only .03% of 34 starts on this surface. Hmmm. Yolo Santiago (1) drops in class and will make the 3rd start off the layoff. Should be better and picks up the glasses for this one. Ran a huge 2nd when wearing blinkers the only previous time. Will make the AW debut here, too. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. And, I will key the 9 over/under the 2-1-10-3-7-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-4/11-5/6-10/2/1-3-7-9…Invaluable (8) is the ML favorite and deservingly so. This one comes from the barn for Mike Maker, who is off to a huge start to this Holiday Meet. In the first 12 starts, the barn has gone 3-1-3. Drops off the last win, which was on the slop at Churchill Downs. Gets the meet’s top rider. Looks formidable in this spot. Very. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-4 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 4-11-5-6-10 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-7/6-1/8/4/2/5…Takafumi (3) is another ML favorite, and this one will be moving up in class after getting claimed off the Maker barn last time out. New barn wins with .08% on the first chance after the purchase. Interesting rider choice. Has won 3 in a row and can either stalk or rally late. Good right now and in 5 starts over the AW, this one has a 2-1-0 mark. Fly Nightly (7) is our first “Upset Special of the Night.” This 6YO son of The Factor (progeny do very well here) will make the first start for a new trainer, too, and this gal wins with .20% on first ask. Gets a new rider, who is really starting to do well in the Commonwealth. Slow start here, but can boot. Drops in class for this one and should be a threat. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 6-1-8-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 12-11/2-9/10-5-8/6/3-4-7…Boa Nova (12) didn’t get any bargains with the post position draw, but this Irish-bred has done well over AW surfaces before (2-3-1 in 12 starts) and looks to be a formidable threat here. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .17% of those kind. Gets a new rider, who should help. Dragon Drew (11) is now a 7YO, and is still kicking his heals. Has a 4-3-2 mark in 13 starts here and has the speed to be seriously dangerous at this level. Love this horse. All the way back to the beginning when he won a Stakes in New Orleans for then-trainer Buff Bradley. My bet. I bet the 11 — take note — across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 12-11 in the exactas. I will key the 12-11 over/under the 2-9-10-5-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-9/2-10/11-4/3/5-6/8-7…Quiero Mas (1) goes for a trainer having a nice year, winning at a .22% clip after 229 starts. This 3YO filly is a homebred and looks to have the experience here to like the return to the AW. Has been off since January, but the barn can get them ready off the bench. Has won with .18% when away this long. Seabrook (9) is a high-pedigree homebred who should do better here in the 2nd career race. Barn wins with .13% of the last 168 to try that. Gets the meet’s top rider up and the works are on the improve. Big shot. I bet the 1-9 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-9 over/under the 2-10-11-4-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-4/8/1-5-6-10/9/2/7…Carribean Night (3) goes for one of the top young trainers in the game today and this one has 2 wins and a runner-up in the first 6 starts of the career. Lost the rider after clipping heals the last time out. Won the race before that. Will try the AW for the first time, but the barn wins with .17% when moving from sod to artificial. Threat. Soft Touch (4) will make them all do some running here to win. This homebred is well-pedigreed and had a super Summer in Virginia before the last time out. Just went too far in that one. Should have the speed to carve out a solid trip here. Look out. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 3-4 over (only) the 8-1-5-6-10 in a smaller unit.
7th: 1-(14)-8/2-5-10/4-6-7-(13)/12…Rally Squirrel (1) gets the nod here. This NY-bred ran well in open company last time out at Aqueduct and will move from the grass to the AW here. Has speed. Can use it early and often. Gets a top rider on this circuit, and he is off to a great start to this meet — winning at a .23% rate. Look out here. Aviano (14) would ge a serious threat if he draws in from the AE List. This one sold for a whopping $775,000 in 2019. Offered up for $15,000 here. Chance if makes the gate. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-5-10 in two smaller units.
8th: 6/3-11/1-12/2-(13)/4/7-8-10…The finale is a 6-furlong sprint and offers up our only “Key Play of the Night.” I will key on Offutt Cole (6). This 3YO son of Cairo Prince was claimed just two starts ago for $10,000. Ran well enough when stretched out to a route last time out. Just got tired. Now, this one returns to sprinting and drops in class. Both of those things should help immensely. Look out here. This one has the speed and talent to dominate this class. I bet the 6 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 6 over/under the 3-11-1-12-2 in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene