|Tampa Bay Day Results||8 / 4-1-3|
|Turfway Park Day Results||8 / 1-3-3|
|Oaklawn Park Day Results||3 / 0-1-2|
|Santa Anita Day Results||7 / 1-3-5|
|Total Day Results||26 / 6-8-13|
|2021 Overall 193||193 / 57-64-75|
|Win % of Top Pick||29.53%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.85%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 114-185||61.62%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 79-132||59.84%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 40-132||30.30%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 19 / 8-3-2||42.11% Win / 68.42%|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 33 / 15-7-2||45.45% Win / 73.73% ITM|
Well, I’m sure hoping that we can have some fun and win some cash money tonight. After all, it is my birthday. Can’t afford the 65 candles, and the horse can’t afford that much fire in one place, either. But we will be celebrating with cake. I would like to celebrate by making some “cake,” too.
So, here we go with our looks:
1st: 6/9-7/4-5-3-8-10/1…On Deck (6) is the ML favorite, and the 5YO First Samurai mare sure deserves the title of PT favorite, too. Gets my first “Key Play of the Night.” Has run two big ones here in the last two outs and now drops in class to an all-time low price point. Gets the meet’s leading rider — in terms of purses won — up for the first time and in a huge rider switch. Work here on Jan. 23 was spot on. Salty little field for this one, but the barn is winning at a .20% rate on the first chance after a claim purchase and with .22% on the AW. This meet? Prime time. Winning at a .29% rate with 10 wins in the first 35 starts. Strong here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, too. In the Pick 5, I go with two tickets: 6/8/4-6-3-1-5-7-8-2/2-1-12-4-5-6-11-7-10/9-2. In the second ticket: 6-9-7-4/8-1-2-9/4-6-3/2-1-12/9-2.
2nd: 8/1-2-9/7-6/3…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes right here with Screenwriter (8). This 6YO Ghostzapper mare has raced 18 times to date, and only has one win to show on the resume. But the mare has 6 seconds and 3 thirds to add value. Last time out, she ran against allowance company here and came from near last to finish 4th and beaten less than 3. Gets a new rider tonight and over the AW, this one has 2 seconds and a third in 7 previous runs. Drops to the lowest price tag ever tonight. Barn wins with .30% in the 2nd start off the layup and with .24% in the claiming ranks. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the “all button” in the exacta. I will also key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed above.
3rd: 4-6-3/1-5/7-8-2…Kaely’s Sister (4) gets the edge in this one. This 3YO daughter of Maclean’s Music gets the Lasix for the first time tonight and moves up to face winners for the first time after winning the debut here on Dec. 9. Ran off at the end of that one to easily distance the foes in the MSW ranks. Barn wins with .28% when moving up to face winners for the first time, and that is with the last 293 runners that fit the description. Rider has a win in two previous tries for this barn. Work at KEE on Jan. 22 was spot on. Big shot here. Igloo (6) is the even-money ML favorite, and why not? Trainer is winning with .50% of his 16 starts here this meet, and the rider has won with .33% of the last 6 mounts for the trainer. Gets Lasix for the first time tonight. Ran off to a 71/4 length win here on Dec. 26. Now, returns after a series of good works. May be the speed to catch. Miss Stella (3) could spice up this odds rack. Goes for a top young trainer in the game today, who wins with a whopping .25% when they are coming off the bench this long. Moves up to face winners for the first time and the trainer wins with .21% of those kind, too. Works are solid. Chance. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-1-12/4-5-6-11-7-10/(13)-3-8/9…Crazy Sexy Funny (2) did not fire a lick in either of the last two outings. But this 5YO Munnings mare was claimed last time out and returns to the same level. Encouraging. And, the new barn operator wins with .28% in the first race after a claim purchase. Barn wins with .31% of those that return to the gate as a beaten favorite, too. Work on Feb. 2 was spot on. Look for this one to run huge. Flirty (1) has race here 8 times. Has finished first in 4 of those. So, must love the track atmosphere, right? Has had some traffic issues here in the last two. Compromised. Won here three races back at this same level. If the rider can find a clear path? Watch out. Lady Leah (12) won here last time out at this same level. In 12 starts here, this 5YO mare has gone 2-1-2. Rider has just 3 wins in 41 starts this meet. Hmmm. But does have a sharp work here on Feb. 4. Maybe? I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 12-4-5-6-11-7-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-2/11-5-1-8/4…The final leg of the Pick 5 is a good field of study. The MSW ranks for the colts and geldings. I will go outside and saddle up with Nineeleventurbo (9). This one is the ML favorite, according to my handicapping equipment supplier — Brisnet.com. The 4YO More Than Ready gelding has run two seconds in a row here after shipping up from Churchill Downs, where he was a very nice 34d in mid-September. Work here on Jan. 30 was spot on. Trainer wins with .23% of those returning to the gate as a beaten favorite. Gets a top rider, who has won with .22% of the last 23 mounts for this barn. Latch on. Win d’Oro (2) will get his first start over the “new and improved” Tapeta surface at Turfway Park tonight. Ships in from New Orleans and the Fair Grounds for a HOF trainer, who has won with .22% of his 45 starts here this meet. Has two thirds in the last two outings, against better, and the rider has won with .21% of the last 19 mounts for the trainer. Big shot here. I bet the 9-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 9-2 over/under the 11-5-1-8-4 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-8-3/9-7-5-4-6/10…Special Beach (2) will drop all the way from the $30,000 claiming ranks to the near-basement level of $7,500 tonight. Barn wins with .18% of those getting this type of class relief and with .14% of the last 245 starts, all told. Gets a rider who has been hot. Has a 4-1-0 mark in the last 16 starts. In two previous runs over an AW track? Has a third. Will be coming late. Falcons Fury (8) will make his first start for a new barn operator, who just so happens to win with .19% of those making the debut. Gets Lasix for the first time, and the trainer wins with half of those. And, coming off this kind of a layup? Barn wins with .20%. Look for a big improvement out of this one tonight, after the transfer from the West Coast. Look out. Snake Bite (3) ran a huge one here two starts back and that was against much better and tougher foes. Faltered late last time out, but went 5 wide in that one. Rider returns. Why? Well, he is 0-for-5 over the last 60 days. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 3-9-7-5-4-6 in two smaller units.
7th: 10-7-12/8-4-9/5-11/2-3…Invader (10) is a 4YO son of War Front, and will be returning to the racing wars for the first time since last March. Nearly a year ago. But this one ran a huge 2nd then in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks to the very classy Field Pass. Before that one? Won the John Battaglia Stakes by nearly 7 lengths. In three tries here, this one has two wins and a second. Works are spot on for the return. I’m in. Noren (7) comes from the red-hot barn of William Morey, who has compiled a 10-5-4 mark in 35 starts here. Win percentage nearly .30%. This one has won the last two here and gets a new rider for this one. But the jockey has won with .33% of the last 9 outings for this barn. Merchants of Cool (12) is another from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .31% rate here this meet. This one has not been out since last March, as well. But he is quality. Ran 3rd in the Animal Kingdom Stakes last time out and before that was a perfect 2-for-2 here. Broke the maiden by 10 lengths. Training super well here, too. Big shot. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-12 over/under the 7-8-4-9-5-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-1/2-9/7-(13)-5…The finale of the night is a wide open affair, but I will give the slight edge to Samson Lee (3). This 4YO is trained by my great friend Tommy Drury, who I have so much respect for and admire. This one drops to a career low level here and the barn wins with .50% when cutting back in class this much at one time. Barn wins with .33% when going sprint to a route, too. Big shot against the likes of these foes. Empty Holster (1) comes from the highly-successful barn of trainer Larry Rivelli. The barn has won with .26% here this meet, and has won with .29% of the last 334 starters, overall. This one has not raced since last August and will get the first start tonight for the new barn operation. Trainer wins with .32% with the newcomers. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-1 over/under all the numbers listed above in two smaller units. I will key the 3-1 over/under the “all button” in two lesser amounts, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene