|2020 Overall 181||181/65-55-66|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.91%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.25%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –122-181||67.40%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 113-167||67.66%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 61-167||36.53%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 25-4-9-6||16.00% Win / 76.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 26-5-9-6||19.23% Win / 76.92% ITM|
We are back. Racing action time again. Yeah.
When we left you on Saturday, we had 4 winners out of the 8 races and we have inched our numbers up to a win percentage of 35.91% this year overall and up to a lofty 36.53% for our 167 races handicapped at Turfway Park since Jan. 1.
And, we are going to try to add to those numbers this week.
Here’s a look at Thursday night’s card:
1st: 3-4-6/8-2/5-7-1…Lyonaisse (3) is dropping from the $30,000 tag level to the $15,000 ranks tonight. Ran against these kind two races ago at Churchill Downs. Didn’t fare too well that day. But in 11 lifetime tries, this one does have 3 seconds and a third. Gets a hot rider in the irons for the first time tonight. That should help. Boomtown (4) looked to be making a nice run in the last outing until he seemed to flatten out in the final strides. Went 4-wide in that effort and was a beaten favorite at some low odds. The barn hits with .14% of those that return as a beaten fan’s choice, and in 3 tries over this track, this one has just the third last time out. Gets a new rider tonight. Could shake up this one a bit. American Values (6) is a 3YO daughter of City Zip, and she cost $130,000 to purchase as a KEE September Yearling in 2018. Has raced just two times since. Much improved in December bet against $50,000 level claimers at Aqueduct. Now, drops to a career low price tag. Work at KEE on Feb. 8 looks promising. My pick — take note. I will bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under in two smaller versions. Love the 6 here.
2nd: 12-9-6/5-1-10/4-8…Promised Fame (12) won the last time out here on Feb. 8. Came with a nice run at the end of that 6-furlong affair. Same rider comes right back to saddle up once gain. Barn hits with .27% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks, and with .25% of those that won the last race, overall. In 5 starts here, this 4YO Astrology filly has a 1-2-0 mark. One to beat, IMO. Dusty Miller (9) gets my first Upset Special of the Night. This 4YO Florida-bred won the last time out to break the maiden. Will face winners for the first time for a barn that is having only modest success. But I really like the way this one finished the last one. Mischievious Lass (6) drops in class after a poor performance at Churchill Downs last September. Works have been impressive here, and the blinkers do come off. Drops to an all-time lowest price tag. Look for this one to be coming late. I bet the 12-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 12-9 over/under the 6-5-1-10-4-8 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 11-6-7/2-(13)-5-10/9-12/3-8…Big Island (11) has run two very nice races since moving to the AW surface for the first time. This Florida-bred has some versatility to his running style and the trainer has a win and a second in just 5 starts here this meet. Look for a solid appearance here. Echo Alpha Six (6) goes for a trainer who has won with .24% of the last 116 starters overall. Since moving to the AW, this one has a second and a third in 3 appearances here. Set the pace in the last outing, which was a new style mark. Tired at the end of that one. Sharp work here on Feb. 13. Look out for the speed angle. Super Valentine (7) is 12-1 in the ML and looks like a possible upset candidate. Ran a nice third last time out and comes here for the same price. Could spice up the odds rack. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 11 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.
4th: 2-6-8/10-1-4/11-5-(13)…Golden Ready (2) goes for a barn that is having a solid meet, with a 6-4-2 mark in the first 32 mounts this meet. This 5YO gelded son of More Than Ready comes off a huge second when dropped to the bargain bin last time out. No match for the winner on Jan. 10, but this one looks tougher with the addition of the meet’s top rider to the mix. Take note. Link to Destiny (6) goes for the meet’s top barn operator, and this one should improve off the last race here on Jan. 1. That was the first start for this 4YO gelding in nearly 11 months. Rider has won with .33% of the last 18 rides for this barn, and this one should be more fit here. Watch out. Eternal Power (8) completely stopped last time out. Puzzling. But this one drops in class to the bargain bin for a trainer that is winning with .29% when coming off this kind of a layup. Jockey has won with 2 of the last 4 for this barn, too. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
5th: 5-3/1-6-11-(14)/7-8-9-12/4-2…Sacred Storm (5) has won 3 races in a row and the last two over this AW surface. Has the speed to carve out some heady fractions, and looks to have the guts to last at the end, too. Rider has won with .27% of the last 15 rides for this barn over the past 60 days. And, the barn wins with .33% of those that drop off a win, too. Looks dangerous in this spot, to be sure. Chargaree (3) could be the best “surprise” candidate. Another speedster who may try to tackle the top choice in the early stages. In 3 starts over AW here, this one has 2 wins. Not bad. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 5-3 over (only) the rest of the numbers in a smaller version.
6th: 9-7-5/4-3-6/1-2-8…Floroplus (9) looks the best in this heat. The 6YO gelded son of City Zip has raced twice over this strip. Has a win and a second. Looked like he as closing great in the last race, but ran out of ground. The “show” horse in that one came right back to win the next out. Works have been solid, too. My pick. Lady’s Weekend (7) goes for a barn operator that has a 1-3-1 record in just 9 races this meet. This one has won two in a row, as well, and has hit the board in each of the last 3 races. Looks good right now. Rolin With Olin (5) could spice up the odds rack a bit. Pure speedster will need to make his way to the front, but the Pennsylvania-bred has the quicks to do it. If they leave alone and this one can get brave on the front end? Look out. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-7 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
7th: 8-7/1-2-6/5-9-12/3-10…Bourbon Traffic (8) goes for the barn of Ben Colebrook, who has a 6-11-6 mark in the first 45 mounts this meet. Did not run well here the last time out, but that was at the extended distance of 11/4-miles. Switches to a high percentage rider here and should improve with the shorter distance, too. Jockey has a 5-2-5 record in the last 18 mounts. Hot. Montmartre (7) is 6-1 in the ML odds, and I think this 5YO son of Distorted Humor has a real chance to spike the lights up. Ran a solid race the last time out, but will be making the AW debut on Thursday night. Working very well for this performance. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 1-2-6-5-9-12 in two smaller versions.
8th: 11-7-1/9-12-(13)/3-5-4-2…Bro (11) will be seeking the second win in a row. Barn hits with .27% of those that won the previous time out, and with .17% of the claimers trying for a repeat score. This one came from next-to-last and way, way back to win by nearly 5 lengths in the last race. That’s a serious race move. In 4 tries over the AW, though, that was the only win. Interesting to see if he can repeat that performance. Tee Tee (7) was a factor and ran second to our top choice last time out. Over the last 4 races, this one has hit the board 3 times. In 11 starts here, too, this one has a 3-2-2 record. Home is where the best PPs are, right? I bet the 11-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 11-7 over/under the 1-9-12-13-3-5 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene