|Total Day Results||8 / 4-1-4|
|2021 Overall 230||230 / 71-77-88|
|Win % of Top Pick||30.87%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.20%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 140-222||63.06%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 85-140||60.71%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 44-140||31.43%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 21 / 10-3-2||47.62% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 34 / 19-7-2||55.88% Win / 79.42% ITM|
It was a nice way to return to action at the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Wednesday night. Had 4 winners out of the 8 races. Had exactas that returned $14.60, $44.40, $49.20, $18.00 and $17.20 for each $1 played. And, both of our “Key Plays of the Night” returned to the wire and winner’s circle first.
Will take it.
Now, we hope we can string two good ‘ole good ones together in a row.
Here’s our looks for tonight:
1st: 6-2/1-3-9-5/4-7…Love Your Buttons (6) is my top selections in the lid-lifter tonight. This 7YO horse is coming off two straight wins and has been impressive rallying in the late stages of each of those events — one of which came here on Jan. 15. The flat 1-mile distance seems to fit this one nicely, and the barn is winning at a whopping .29% here this meet with 14 starters. Trainer scores with .24% of those attempting to repeat in the claiming ranks and with .17% of those making the 2nd start off a layup. Adds up for me. Long on Luck (2) didn’t fire a lick last time out when dropped to the bargain bin. But that start on Feb. 6 was the first outing since July of 2020. Didn’t get much of an exercise, but probably needed it. Won two very nice races in a row at Ellis Park last summer and both those were against much tougher company. Barn is due, and if this one has anything left in the tank? Should pop some signs tonight. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-2 in one exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Pick 5 “A” Ticket: 6-2-1-3-9-5/6-9-8-3-5-4/7-2-(13)-3-5-12-4/6-8/9…= $250
Pick 5 “B” Ticket: 6-2/6-9-8/7-2-(13)-3-5-12-4/6-8-9-10-1/9…= $105
If too rich, you know where to cut…
2nd: 6-9-8/3-5/4/2…Faith Factor (6) could give us back-to-back “6s” to start the night. This 6YO mare by The Factor was claimed after a sub-par performance here last time out. Now, drops off the claim? Hmmm. But this barn is winning at a .29% rate in 35 starts this meet and this trainer wins with .40% of those that he drops off the claim purchase. Work on Feb. 10 — after the last race — was spot on. So, I’m not too worried about the claim-drop angle. Rider has won with .25% for this barn and has won on this horse, too. In 4 tries here? Has 2 wins and a third. Adds up for me, again. Seductive (9) has only 1 win in 6 previous runs here at TP, but look at this mare’s overall AW record: 2-3-0 in 11 starts. So, in the other 5? Has a win and 3 seconds. That form may show up here again — like it did on Dec. 3. Gets a huge, huge rider switch tonight and returns as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .15% of those. Chance. Honey Bourbon (8) won here at this level on Jan. 7. That was a conditional claimer and she loses that spot, but in 5 races here, she does have 2 wins. Rider switches mounts, and that is concerning. But fits with these on paper. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 8-3-5-4-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-2-(13)/3-5-12-4/10-6-8/11-9…High Promise (7) drops all the way from the top of the allowance ranks here to the $15,000 claiming price tag. Could be considered a “fire sale” sort of a drop, but this one has not been a factor since running here last March. About a year ago. If he can find that old form? Look out. And the drop should help him focus a bit, too. Interesting one, to be sure. Inclusive (2), on the other hand, bumps up a notch in the class department after running a very nice 2nd here on Jan. 28. Gets a solid rider switch for this effort and goes for a barn that is having a very nice meet. Will be coming late and will need some pace scenario up front to set up his late kick. But in 2 previous runs here, has that second. Although? It was at 22-1 odds. Hmmm. Surf and Turf (13) is a 5YO Kitten’s Joy gelding who is a “must use” for me, if he draws in from the AE List. Drops considerably in this spot to a career-low price tag. Has a win in 3 previous tries here and gets a solid rider up. Check to see if this one gets in. I bet the 7-13 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers (no matter who they are). I will key the 7-13 over/under the 2-3-5-12-4-10-6 in two smaller units.
4th: 6-8/9-10/1-5-11/(14)-(13)/7-2-12…Here comes the third “6” on the night, and our first Longshot Special of the Evening, too. Maligator (6) is 12-1 in the ML, and I would love to have 1/2 of those odds by PT. This 6YO son of Fort Prado is coming off two nice 2nds in a row — the last one here on Jan. 21. That one, actually, was against tougher competition and he was a beaten favorite. This barn is winning at a .25% rate this meet and wins with .33% of the last 257 to return to the gate as a beaten favorite. In 2 previous tries here? Two seconds. Will be coming late. Will need a bit of luck. But will have some say at the wire. Cha Vez (8) is my second Longshot Special of the Evening. This 5YO son of Lemon Drop Kid is made for the AW and in three previous tries over that type of surface, this one has a win and a third. Has been salty against these types in the last two outs and will be making the third career start for a new barn that is having a solid meet I love this one’s chances to, at a nice price. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 9-10-1-5-11 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-10/2-8-1-6/4-12/(14)-3-5…Twenty Carat (9) is coming off an impressive MSW win here on Jan. 15. One kicker? Was DQ’d in that one and placed second. Now, this 3YO daughter of Into Mischief is back to take what is rightfully hers, to begin with. Can’t argue with the DQ. Drifted out at the wire in that one. Probably compromise the other horse, due to the fact that this one won by only a neck. But she should and could benefit from that exercise. Barn wins with .30% of the 50 starters here this meet. Wins with .27% when a beaten favorite hits the track again. Wins with .22% with horses making the 2nd career start. Enough for me. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-10 in the exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 2-8-1-6-4-12 in two smaller units.
6th: 5/2-4-1-3/7-6…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with First Sword (5). This 3YO gelded son of First Samurai is another from the barn of Wesley Ward and is a nominee to the Triple Crown. Has raced twice. Has won twice. Both very impressively. Now, will return with the addition of Lasix. Simply too good for this group if he can match the first two performances. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key over/under the “all button.” I also key over (only) the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
7th: 7/9/5-8-4/2-10-1-12/6-(13)-11…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Sequin (7), and yet another from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward. This 4YO daughter of Bayern has not raced since last November at Churchill Downs. Won that one and has hit the board in each of the last five. Overall, has a 2-4-1 mark in 8 career starts and she has faced some good ones before. Works are spot on. Has speed to burn. Looks like she may be on fire in the return to the races. I bet the 7 to win/place and then box the 7-9 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 7-9 over/under the 5-8-4-2-10-1-12 and then key the 7 over the “all button,” too.
8th: 5/8-10-6-9/12-(14)-(13)/4…The finale is my third — if not 4th — “Key Play of the Night” in a row. And, you guessed it. Another from the barn of Wesley Ward. Can he win 4 in a row? I would not bet against him or it. Royal Kitten (5) ran a very solid 3rd on debut at Arlington Park last September against MSW company. Returns tonight as a first-time gelding and off a series of nice works here, too. Drops all the way to the $15,000 level and the barn is simply too good not to use in this spot. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key over/under all the numbers listed.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene