|2020 Overall 56||56/20-18-18|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.71%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.33%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –39-56||69.64%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 39-56||69.64%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 20-56||35.71%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 8-1-3-3||12.50% Win / 87.50% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 8-1-3-3||12.50% Win / 87.50% ITM|
We are coming off our best and biggest day of the Turfway Park meet, and we are hoping that our new “formulas” will begin to pay some dividends and some tickets. Here’s a look at our picks for Thursday night — which boasts one of the best cards since the turn of the New Year:
1st: 8-3/1-7-6/2-4…Vida Leva Eu (8) nearly won at this level last time out when dropping in class. Led from start to within an inch of the wire. Has the speed to control this one from the get-go, and this one has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 4 starts over this all-weather surface. The one to catch. The one to beat. Miss Vicki (3) was a real contender at this level at Arlington Park back in September. Last time out this one wilted under the pressure. But returns as the beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .26% of them. This could be a speed dual from the on-set, and could set this one up for a late closer. Looks to me that Maleficent Queen (1) looks to be the best of those in here. I bet the 8-1 (take note) across the board and then box the 8-3-1 in one exacta. I will key the 8-1 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.
2nd: 8-7/2-6/1-5-4/9-10…Boomtown (8) drops from a MSW event to a $15,000 level for this one. First time in the claiming ranks and the barn scores with .10% of them. Last two have not been encouraging, but against much, much tougher competition. This one should elevate her game here. Proudly Fought (7) is 8-1 in the ML and I think has a real shot on debut in this one, too. My first Upset Special of the Night. Trainer doesn’t start many, but does well with the stock he has and this is a homebred for the Airdrie Stud connections. Look out here. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 2-6-1-5-4 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 9-7-1/4/5-2/3…Kickin Kimberly (9) will make her first start for the new barn tonight. Trainer hits with .15% of those making the debut for the new connections. Drops in class. Goes to the all-weather for the first time. Gets a hot rider in the irons. I like the speed this one has to offer to the mix, too. My pick. Seductive (7) ran a super race at this level two races back at Woodbine. Showed nothing last time out here on Dec. 18. On again, off again type, but this one is much better than the last outing. I look for much more with the meet’s top rider taking the reins tonight. Look out. Kojo’s Queen (1) drops a notch after a near-miss second against better last time out. If she can run that race back? She can be right there. Never been on the AW before, but has the breeding to enjoy it. Can’t dismiss. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller versions.
4th: 2-4-8/12/1-3-5/6-7…Rock On Kitten (2) is the ML favorite, and has a right to be. This 4YO gelded son of Kitten’s Joy is coming off a second here in the last outing and has 5 seconds in 10 career starts. Drops back in for the same level, and picks up a huge rider switch for this one. Interesting note on this one, though. He was much closer when running on Lasix. Has been without the anti-bleeder in the last 4. Hmmm. Wallet (4) ran a nice one last time out and was claimed by the new connections out of that one. Bumped up a couple of categories for tonight’s affair, but the new barn does well — .22% — with beaten favorites. Has the speed to be a contender, despite the tougher crowd. Hypnotist (8) has not run a lick in either of the last two, but drops all the way from the MSW ranks to the $15,000 tag tonight. Ran a big one at KEE in October. If he can find that form, he romps here. Will be coming late. Challenger. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the to 3 over/under the 12 in two smaller versions.
5th: 7-8/5-6/1-4-3/11-2-9…Will Runaway (7) comes up from sunny Florida to take on the AW surface and the Northern runners for the first time in the career. Goes to a new barn, who has won with just .08% of the 12 starts that fit that category. Worked well here on Jan. 4. Has some speed and will be tough to catch if he breaks free on the lead. True to Dixie (8) has hit the board in each of the last two and the winner of the race two back came right back to win the next out. Has only one win in 16 lifetime starts, but does have 4 seconds and 3 thirds. Looks to be in the money again, to me. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-8 in the exacta. I will key the 7-8 over/undder the 5-6-1-4-3 in two smaller versions.
6th: 1-1A-10-7/5-4/2-6-8-2…One part of the entry is likely to be scratched before PT, due to the fact that the trainer has name the same rider for both in the entry box. Truth be told? I can take and like either one of them. Obiwan (1) moves up an inch after nearly winning a MCL for $50,000 at Churchill Downs in the last outing. Bobbled at the start of that one, and still moved to the front runners in the early going. Managed to say on for a nice second while going longer. Like the cut back in distance for this one. The Falcon (1A) ran a very nice 3rd in a MCL $50,000 at Churchill in late November. Like his roommate, this one can lay off the lead a bit and make a late run at it. This one moves out to a route for the first time and that may be the ticket. Both of these guys are by Union Rags. Has a good record over the AW, too. I bet the entry to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key either the 1 or 1A over/underthe 10-7-5-4-2 in two smaller versions.
7th: 9-6-4/7-2/1A-1…John’s Rock (9) is truly my Key Play of the Night. Love this one, who comes from the barn of Phil Sims. Trainer is one of the most underrated guys in the business. Does a great job spotting his horses. And, training them, too. This one ran very well last time out here on Dec. 19. If not for the bobble at the start of that one, he could have been a winner in two straight. Gets the meet’s top jock to take the reins tonight. My main play. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
8th: 12-7/5-8/9-6-1/1A-2…Moon Over Montana (12) comes from the barn of trainer Larry Rivelli. Over the last 427 starts, this barn has won with .31%. this one is coming off a romping 61/2-length victory here in the last out. In 9 career starts over the AW, this guy has a record of 4-4-1. Has speed to roll early and often. Doesn’t get an assist with the outside post, but the meet’s top rider can negotiate this with the best of them. My second Key Play of the Night. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the 12-7 in the exacta. I will key the 12 over/under the 7-5-8-9-6-1-2 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene