|2020 Overall 8||8/2-3-2|
|Win % of Top Pick||25.00%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||29.17%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –4-8||50.00%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 8-4-||50.00%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 2-8||25.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 0-0||0.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 0-0||0.00%|
We got off to a modest beginning to the 2020 year, but we were able to salvage much and move into a positive “cash flow” with a solid hit in the last event on New Year’s Day at Turfway Park.
Our Upset Special of the Day got caught nearing the wire, but managed to sweep to a solid second at 9-1 PT odds. That “across the board” wager returned $18.40 for each $2 played and $30.80 for each $1 wagered. Sweet.
We also added 3 other exactas that rendered $36.30, $20.30, and $21.80 for each $1 played.
Here’s hoping that we have a few more outright winners, but we will take the positive cash return each and every day.
Here’s a look at the Thursday card at TP — which returns to a 6:15 p.m. ET first post tonight:
1st: 7-6-10/9-5/4-1-8…On Purpose (7) is a first-time starter from the barn of Wesley Ward, who is winning with .32% of his first 25 runners here since racing switched over to Turfway Park in early December. The dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starter and has 1 Stakes winner in the mix. Barn hits with .21% of those that debut in the MCL ranks, and the rider has a 3-2-1 mark in the last 10 starts for this operation. Work here on Dec. 20 indicates this one is ready. We shall see. Worthaprettypenny (6) has raced 3 times, to date, and has a third. Drops back down to the $30,000 level for this one and that may make this one a contender in this spot. Defy Expectations (10) ran well in the last start at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 6. Now, this 3YO Into Mischief filly gets the trip North for this start. Moves to a new barn operation, too. This one sold as a yearling for $42,000 — which is $108,000 less than the stud fee. Question marks galore, but may be good enough for this group. I bet the 7-10 across and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 9-5-4-1-8 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 5-3/7-4-6/9-1-10…Hyndford (5) was claimed just two starts ago and the new barn operation is having a very solid meet here. Has a 5-5-3 record in the first 26 starters this meet. Barn hits with .23% of those making the 2nd start off the claim and with .24% of those returning for the third time off a layup. Jockey has won with .38% of the last 13 starts for this barn, too. Adds up for me. Tidal Effect (3) ran a solid second here on Dec. 6 when getting the blinkers addd to the equipment for the first time since June of 2018. Has only 1 win in 15 starts, and that puts this one at a disadvantage, but the barn hits with .22% on the AW and this one returns as a beaten favorite, too. Barn wins with .26% of those. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 7-4-6-9-1-10 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 6/9-4-3-2-7/8-5…The first Key Play of the Day comes right here with Junket (6). This 6YO gelded son of Algorithms has been right thee at the wire in each of the last 3 and won here two races back at this level. Galloped off by nearly 3 that day. Bumped up to $18,000 last time out here on Dec. 20 and was 3rd, but beaten only 11/2 lengths. Very good right now and looks much the best here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed.
4th: 7-1/12-9/4-11-5/2-6-8…Hoptown Honey (7) was claimed two starts back off a winning effort at Churchill Downs. Moved up in class last time out and ran a tiring third after making a strong middle move. The barn hits with a whopping .41% when making the second start this for trainer, and the jockey has hit with .34% of the last 38 rides for this operation. In last 4 starts, has two wins and a third. Look for more out of this one tonight. Bella Moon (1) could spice up the odds rack in this one. Trainer wins with .24% of the last 76 starters over the all-weather surface, and attracts the meet’s top rider aboard. This daughter of Malibu Moon should adjust to the AW really nicely, in her first run over the plastic. Has a bit of speed and may be able to pounce out against the rail. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-1 over/under the 12-9-4-11-5-2 in two smaller versions.
5th: 8-3-12/11-7/5/1-10-9…Kisses for Heidi (8) will get the starting gate for the first time for a barn that wins with .09% of those making the debut in the MSW ranks. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 previous starters and the sire of this one is made is perfect for the all-weather surfaces. Training very well for the inaugural. I’m in. Lele (3) is one of the few left behind by the barn of Dale Romans. Will make the debut tonight, as well. Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, and the dam was Stakes-placed, too. Works have been solid enough to give her a shot in this spot. Fair and Just (12) is another first-timer, and has worked well for the debut. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starters. And, those 2? Stakes winners. Like the 8-1 ML odds, too. I def use. I bet the 8-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 8-12 over/under the 3-11-7-5-1 in two smaller versions.
6th: 2-7/3/1-5-4-6/1A…Flat Meadow (2) is the 9-5 ML favorite and will be dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. Barn hits with .10% of those making this drop. Gets the meet’s top rider up for the first time, and the work on Dec. 23 at KEE was the bet of the day. Looks like the 5YO War Chant mare is ready for this one. A.P. Princess (7) gets class relief in this spot, too. Two races back — against much tougher — she ran a good one at Churchill Downs. Was claimed off a winning performance three back. Will make the AW debut tonight, but the barn hits with .18% of the 44 runners over this kind of surface. Big shot, too. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 3 in two exactas.
7th: 1-6/7-8/9-4-5/3-2…Into Trouble (1) won here last time out on Dec. 5. Impressive as the favorite that night. Barn hits with .18% of those coming back as a winner, and with .16% over the AW. Switches to a rider having a super meet here — with .32% winners in the first 22 mounts. Needs more opportunities, obviously. In the last 6 races, has hit the board 5 times. Bissau Mischief (6) is the ML favorite, and the barn is having a solid meet here since the start of December. Has won 4 races in a row, the last two coming here. The race before that, the barn made a very clever claim off a winning effort at Churchill Downs. Rider has won with .57% — Wow Time — in the last 7 rides for this barn. The one to beat. I bet the 1-6 to win/place and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 7-8-9-4-5 in two smaller versions.
8th: 7-1-11/5-8-9/2-4-6…The finale tonight is a 6-furlong sprint, and I will go with Promised (7). This 4YO gelded son of Majestic Warrior gets the class drop off a 5th place effort against better at Churchill Downs last time out. In 7 starts to date, he has a 1-1-2 record and should fit with these. Portobello’s Hero (1) nearly won at this level last time out. This Indiana-bred looks tough with a similar effort. Raphael (11) was claimed for $30,000 last time out at Churchill Downs on Dec. 1. Now, drops down to $7,500 tonight. Needs a bigger truck, right? Alarms of off for me here. If he runs back to the same level as he showed two races back at Belmont? Gone. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 7-1 over/under the 11-5-8-9-2 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene