|Day Results||13 / 4-5-5|
|2021 Overall 86||86 / 25-29-34|
|Win % of Top Pick||29.07%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.11%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 51-86||59.30%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 38-64||59.38%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 17-64||26.56%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 11 / 6-2-0||54.54% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 16 / 9-2-0||56.25% Win / 68.75% ITM|
We are back. We are set. And, we are ready to go.
Feeling better. Feeling good. And, feeling like we may have a few winners to kick start the ole’ work week at the “new and improved” Turfway Park.
Here’s a gander at our selections for the Thursday Night card:
1st: 1-8-7/5-3-9-10-11/4…Lapis Storm (1) gets the nod in the first event of the night. This 5YO mare by Stormy Atlantic is coming off a win at Hawthorne Park, near Chicago. If you toss out the grass race two back, then this one has four wins in a row. Has speed. Will use it early. Barn wins at a .27% rate here this meet and won at .28% clip for the entire 2020 season. Gets a top rider, who has won with .36% of the last 11 mounts for this barn. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3 numbers over/under the 5-3 in two smaller units; and I will also key the 1 over/under the 8-7-5-3-9-10-11 in two smaller units.
2nd: 12-1-2/10-9/4-8/11-6-3/7…Maligator (12) is another from the barn of trainer Larry Rivelli. Barn wins with .32% when making the 2nd start off the layup, and with .36% over the AW surfaces. This one goes from a sprint to a route here, and that may help the late run. Barn wins with .20% of those stretching out, too. Miracle Mountain (1) was claimed for $5,000 last time out and now moves up to face tougher. Barn wins with .14% on the first start after a claim purchase. Rider is 0-0-2 in 22 starts here this meet. Hmmm. Direct Approach (2) has won two in a row and took to the AW surface for the first time with an impressive late kick last time out. Rider tonight won on this one two starts ago, and the barn wins with .20% when coming back for a repeat performance. Having a solid meet here, too. I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 12-2 over/under the 1-10-9-4-8-11 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-10/2-6-12/3-11/7-9-8/5-(14)-(13)…Shastaloo (1) will get the Lasix for the first time tonight, and comes from the high-win barn of trainer Brad Cox. Ran a nice third here on Dec. 2. Got the blinkers for the first time that night. Barn wins with .25% when getting Lasix for the first time and wins with .29% when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Gets a top rider tonight. One to beat. Headline Hunter (10) is a first time starter from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward, who wins with .28% of those debuting in the claiming ranks. Dam of this one has a winner from 1 starter. Gets a rider who is 3-for-72. Hmmm. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed.
4th: 4-3-6/8-2-10/7-12/(14)-9-1-5…Catch a Cab (4) is set at ML odds of 8-1 by Brisnet.com. I love those odds and I like this 7YO gelding’s chances here, too. Thus? My first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This one may improve while returning to a route tonight, and goes for a trainer that wins with .22% on the 2nd start off a claim purchase. When dropping this much at once? Barn wins with .32% of the last 50. Like this one here. Icy Street (3) won last time out and now will lose that condition and face tougher foes. But in 5 starts over an AW surface, this one does have 2 wins. Has a shot here from a stalking position. Drink (6) is another one that is coming off a win and loses a nice condition. Will face tougher, but this one does have two wins in a row here and must love this new and improved AW surface. Gets a top rider here. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 3-8-2-10-7-12 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-7/1-5/10-11/6-9-12/(14)-2-4…Treaty of Paris (3) goes for the barn of HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. Ran a very nice 2nd two starts ago, but will find the AW surface for this first time here. This company should help the cause and does have some speed. Could be a tough out here. Jazzy Lady (7) ran a very nice 2nd here on Dec. 31. Just lost at the wire in that one. In two starts here, has 2 seconds. Trainer has not won this meet, with a 0-for-11 start. But could find the circle soon. Solid operation. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 1-5-10-11-6-9-12 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-5-2/6-8/7-9-1…Boa Nova (4) drops off a win, and the barn wins with .50% of those that have done that before. Ran a huge one here at nearly 40-1 odds last time out here on Dec. 19. Gets a new rider and another shot for the $18,000 tag here. If you don’t go to the wedding, you should not go to the reception. But this one looks sharp right now and it’s hard to pass up at what could be a solid price, too. Land Battle (5) is coming off an extended vacation, and has not raced since September. But this one has a 3-2-1 mark in 9 previous runs over an AW surface and should love the company here. Work on Jan. 13 was spot on. Like the rider choice. Solid. Thirsty Betrayal (2) drops in class for this one and the barn wins at a .26% clip on the AW surfaces. That is with a sample size of 68 mounts, too. Has 2 wins in 4 starts here previously, and should fit nicely at this level. I bet the 5-2 across the board — take note — and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units.
7th: 11-12-6/4-7-8/3-1/2-10…Mr Everything (11) is a 4YO gelded son of Mr Speaker and another that comes from the barn of the highly-successful Wesley Ward. Barn winning at a .24% clip this meet and this one just broke the maiden last time out here on Dec. 2. Now, moves up to face winners for the first time and that’s never an easy ask or task. But this barn wins with .20% of those. Jockey is red hot, going 4-3-2 in the last 15 starts and has won with .24% of the last 25 rides for this outfit. Stretches out to the 1-mile distance tonight, but does have a 2nd here at this distance, too. My pick. Heavenly Peace (12) has not been out since running at KY Downs in September. The barn does win with .17% that have been away from the gate this long. Has a late kick and some talent, but is he ready? Awesome Wok N Roll (6) broke the maiden last time out here on Dec. 11, as well. Has a 1-2-0 record in 5 previous runs over an AW surface and the trainer is heating up here. Has gone 3-0-2 in the last 9 races. Chance. I bet the 11-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-6 over/under the 12-4-7-8-3-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 9-(13)-3/8-2/6…Adhhar (9) spit the bit hard when running here on Jan. 9. But that was on the stretch-out to the 1-mile distance. Returns to a sprint tonight, and the barn wins with .25% when going from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint. Has not been great over the AW in the two starts here. But drops all the way to the bargain bin for the first time tonight and this is not a deep and talented field, to begin with. I go here. And, I go sternly. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under the “all button,” in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene