|2020 Overall 85||85/31-24-28|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.47%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||32.55%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –62-85||72.94%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 58-80||72.50%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 28-80||35.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 11-2-5-3||18.18% Win / 90.90% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 12-3-5-3||25.00% Win / 91.67% ITM|
It’s a little rainy and a bit chilly, but the new & improved Turfway Park will crank it up here in a few minutes. We got a late start to our handicapping today (sorry), but here are our picks for tonight. Abbreviated comments.
1st: 8-7/4-6/9-1/5…I’m going with the first time starter Coming Up Roses (8). This one is 8-1 in the ML and, thus, will get my first Upset Special of the Night. The sire won over this track in a huge move, and later went on to win the KY Derby, too. Barn hits with .15% of those that debut in the MCL ranks, and this one has been training solid enough over this surface. Rider has just 2 seconds in 9 starts here, but is a good one. Won .18% over 968 races last year. Florida Flash (7) has run two straight 4ths at Churchill Downs. Faces softer here tonight. Deep, deep closer will need to kick it up a notch on the stretch out. The young Tom Drury has two in here, and he has a 1-4-1 mark in 11 starts this meet. Both Banjo Boy (6) and Mister Carson (4) have credentials here, too. Must uses for me. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 4 numbers in the exacta.
2nd: 1A-9/1-6/11-3-7-8/2-4…Betweenherandcool (1A) will return as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .33% of those. Comes off a sharp work here on Jan. 16, too. Rider is heating up some, and this one has faced better in the past. In 7 starts over this strip? Has 5 wins. Enough for me. I bet the entry — 1A -1 to win/place/show and hope that both hit the board. I will key the entry over/under the 9-6-11-3-7-8-2-4.
3rd: 5-6-11/9-3/1-8-4…Ed’s Rocket (5) was a run-away winner here on Dec. 13, jogging off to a near 7-length victory in the first time over this AW surface. Now, after 9 starts over AW tracks, this one has a 5-1-1 mark. Barn hits with .22% over AW, and wins with .20% of those that found the winner’s circle in the last race. Looks solid in this spot again, after a nice workout on Jan. 17. My pick. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the 6-11-9-3-1-8-4.
4th: 12-11/2-8-10/5-6…Rhoda’s Jewell (12) came with a nice run late in the last time out and now returns with the same rider for a trainer that has a 7-5-3 mark in 40 starts here this meet. Has raced 3 times at TP and has a second and a third. This might be the one. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 12-11 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
5th: 9-8/1-5/10-3-7/12-2…Fluellen (9), a 4YO gelded son of Temple City, comes from a sire line that does very well over the AW surface. This guy drops for half the price tag tonight after spitting the bit last time out after a half. But that was against much better, and that was the first start in 4 months. The extra time and exercise, plus the lighter company should prove to be a good remedy here tonight. Like the rider choice, too. Lucky Bode (8) is my second Upset Special of the Night — and the first one in the 1st race won. Wow. Yeah. This 6YO has never won here in 6 starts. But drops to a career low price tag tonight for a barn that has won with .24% of the first 49 starters here. This one will be making the third start off a layup and the barn hits with .21% of those dropping this much in one swoop. Like this rider choice too. Beware. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box those two in one exacta. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 1-5-10-3-7-12-2 in two smaller versions.
6th: 3-8/2/4-1-9-5…All Out (3) will be making the third start off a layup, and the barn hits with .22% of those kind. Should be ready for his best effort tonight over a distance that he has both a second and a third in two previous tries. Cost $245,000 in 2017 at Fasig-Tipton. Has only won $12,000 so far, but might add to that category here. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 3-8 in the exacta. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 2 in a strong way. I then key the 3-8-2 over the rest in a smaller version.
7th: 9-5-1A/10-6-4/2-7/1-3-8…Kneedeepinsnow (9) is 8-1 in the ML and is both my Upset Special of the Night and my Key Play of the Night. Both. This 4YO son of Flat Out was a powerhouse when he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last May. Powerhouse. Didn’t race again until December. Off 7 months. Ran a real good one here on Dec. 19 off that wait. Now, returns with a huge work under the saddle on Jan. 10. I look for a huge effort out of this one tonight. Are you with me? I’m all in on this one. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I then key the 9 over/under the 5-1A-10-6-4-2-7-3 in two smaller versions. Love this one.
8th: 6/9-2-3/12-7-5…Barton Hall (6) gets my Key Play of the Night designation of the evening, as well. This 4YO daughter of Noble Mission is coming off a nice 4th here in the last effort on Dec. 19. Came with a nice rush with the drop in class for that one. Gets the blinkers off tonight, and that should help this one. Third off the layup, too, and the barn wins with .22% of those. Apprentice rider does have a nice record here and this one has faced much better in the career. If she can lay close enough and make a nice run late, may get to the winner’s circle for the first time. Does have a second and 3 thirds in the first 7 outs. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-9 in a strong box. I will key the 6 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene