(It’s Jeff Ruby Steaks Week at Turfway Park)
|Total Day Results||8 / 2-3-4|
|2021 Overall 396||396 / 130-137-162|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.83%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.11%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 239-396||60.35%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 163-268||60.82%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 91-268||33.96%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 44 / 20-9-3||45.45% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 62 / 30-13-3||48.39% Win / 74.19% ITM|
Turfway Park’s Thursday Night Selections:
1st: 8-7-4/6-5-3/2…Drama Run (8) has run 10 times previously at Turfway Park and only has 1 win to show on the resume. But the 6YO Big Drama mare also has 3 seconds to show for the efforts. Comes into this one off a 2nd on March 12. Beaten just a head in that one and now returns as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .33% of those. Won here just three starts ago, too. Recent history is good. Sweet Carli (7) came off the shelf to run a real good one here on Jan. 15. Has been idle since then, again. But the barn wins with .25% when they are making the 2nd start for the new barn operation, and in 21 lifetime tries, this one has a 4-4-4 mark. Not bad for these ranks. Rider is 5-for-133 and 0-for-4 for this barn. Hmmm. Answer My Call (4) drops from the $13,500 level all the way to the bargain bin in this spot. Barn wins with .08% when falling this much at once. This one has never raced here, but does have 22 tries over an AW surface previously. In those races? Has a 4-9-1 mark. Chance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 7-6-5-3-2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-1-8/2-3/5-4…Yes I’m a Miller (7) has run three 2nds in a row and has hit the board in each of the last 4. In 9 previous starts over an AW surface, this 6YO mare has yet to post a win. But does have 5 seconds and a third. Steady over the past 3 and will be coming late. Needs some racing luck late. Singsong Bird (1) will drop from the $10,000 level to the lowest price tag ever here. Barn wins with .33% when dropping this much at one time. Gets a top rider to take the reins for the first time. Should fit nicely with these types. Conoloway (8) got up in the final stride and won the last time by a nostril hair as the even-money favorite. In two tries over this track now, this one has a win and a third. Will face winners for the first time and the trainer wins with .19% of those. Gets a nice rider here, despite the fact that the filly’s regular rider opts to take over the reins on the #1. Should be OK with the move up. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-3 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-11-6/9-3-12-7/1-2-5…Will Knows (8) gets the nod in this spot. Won the last time out and has run two very nice ones here over the new AW surface. Barn wins with .35% of the last 17 to make the 2nd start off a layup. Trainer also wins with .27% of those that won the last race. Winning rider returns to the saddle. Pick. Sandhill Sammy (11) has run two huge ones here since showing up in late January. Won the first time out on Jan. 23 and returned with a head-bob loss here on March 10. Only has 5 wins in 45 lifetime tries, but is good here in first two over the AW. Big Coulee (6) tired in the late going last time out and gave up the ship. Cuts back in distance here and that could help this “Longshot Special.” In 4 previous tries over an AW surface? Has a 1-1-1 mark. Chance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-3 in two smaller units and then I key 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well.
4th: 6-7-3/9-11-10/8…Macho Madness (6) drops back down to the bargain bin here after trying tougher foes in the past two. Won to break the maiden here three starts ago. Should fit better with these types for a barn that has won with .15% over the AW surfaces. Zoodles (7) could spice up the odds rack here. This one broke the maiden last time out and did so easily and impressively. Barn wins with .19% of those facing winners for the first time. Could be running on nicely at the wire. I Prowl Alone (3) has pitched the tent in about half-way through the last two. But three races ago, this one lasted all the way to the wire. Gets a shorter distance here and that should help this one immensely. Rider knows how to finish a race, too. Could pop a good one here. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 7-9-11-10-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 7-6-8/5-3-9-4/2-11…Anthropology (7) has not been out since a year ago. Ran huge in that one here and just missed the winner’s circle at the final yards. Has been training nicely for the return visit and gets a solid rider in the irons for the assignment. Could be coming late with a real purpose. Cookie Jar (6) is a first time starter for a barn operator that has won with .22% with horses making the career debut. This 4YO daughter of Fed Biz has been training very well at KEE and the dam of this one has 2 winners from the first 5 starters. Gets the meet’s top rider, to boot. Not Swayed (8) is another from the same barn and has been working mate of the #6 on many occasions. This one comes from a dam that has produced 2 winners from the first 3 starters and gets a rider who is 0-0-0 in the first 5 rides here. Interesting choice of pilots. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-3 and then key the 7-6 over/under the 8-5-3-9-4-2-11 in two smaller units.
6th: 7/1/6-2-10…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Terrible Towel (7). This 5YO gelding goes for a barn that has won with only .08% of the 12 starters here this meet. And, the barn is 0-for-13 when routing for the 2nd time. But the rider is the meet’s best and this one was spot on here last time out. Tired at the end and faded to third, but this one looked like a winner close to the wire. Should be better with the blinkers on for the 2nd time. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-1 sternly in the exacta. I will key the 7-1 over/under the “all button” in this spot.
7th: 8-7/10/6-3-2/1…I will go with the duo from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward, who has won with .31% of the 68 starters this meet. The former is Sequin (8). This 4YO daughter of Bayern cost $500,000 to purchase in 2019. Since then, she has earned about $200,000 in purses. Won the last time out in a front-running performance at Churchill Downs. Did so that day as the even-money favorite. Has run very well off the layup in the past and the barn has won with .22% of those away this long. And, that is with the past 332 horses that fit that category. Works are very solid. If she is to win, though, she will have to better here roommate. Chili Petin (7). This one is a 4YO daughter of City Zip and comes into this one off a significant layup. Raced last at Belmont Park last June. Before that? Ran here on March 6 of 2020. In half of her 4 career starts, she has run them off their feet from gate to the wire. Look for more of that speed here. Has been training lights out for this return. Looks like a Ward duo to me. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over (only) the rest of the numbers in the exacta.
8th: 12-2-1/3-5-9-10/6-7-11…Icy Street (12) draws the outside post in the nightcap, but that does not bother me. This 7YO gelding has speed and can use it early to get to the lead and move over to save some ground. In 9 previous runs here? Has 2 wins and 2 seconds on the resume. Trainer is 1-2-0 in just 5 starts here this meet. If he gets a clean break, look out. Could be gone. Christians City (2) goes for a under-rated barn operation, which has won with .15% of its’ 52 starts here this meet. Trainer lost this one two starts ago. Went to Ohio to claim him back last time out. Going into the race where he was snared, this one had hit the board in the previous 7 outings and 8 of the last 9. Returns as a beaten favorite in this spot and the barn wins with .34% of the last 62 of those. Yeahiknow (1) picks up one of the hottest riders around. Over the last 7 days, Bejarano has gone 4-2-2 in the last 15 starts. This one has a 5-3-5 mark in 29 previous runs over an AW surface. Maybe this one shows that style over this AW soon. Like here. I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12-2 over/under the 1-3-5-9-10-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene