(The shadows of me and the two Goldens — Haggard and Crosley — play on the banks of the lake)

Day’s Results 8 / 4-2-3
2022 Overall — 2195 2195 / 745-792-1022
Win % of Top Pick 33.94%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.86%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1404-2195 63.96%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP 6-8 75.00%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 4-8 50.00%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569 66.43%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569 34.97%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8 47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  324/ 135-69-32 41.67% Win / 72.84% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2 16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6 21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM

Stats Are Now Completely Updated

Here’s our looks at the Thursday night events, which will get kick-started at 5:55 p.m. ET:

1st: 10/7-6/1-8/4-5-9/3-12/2…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter at the new & improved Turfway Park. (Can’t wait till I get back and I can drive up for a night on the grounds. Can’t. Wait.) I will saddle up with Tilda (10) in this one. The rider booted home 4 winners on the opening night card and is known for his ability to boot at the Northern Kentucky venue. This 3YO Empire Maker filly has started twice already. Has two 3rds on the resume up in Chicago. Will face tougher here, but this trainer is winning at a .26% rate after 330 starts this year. Knows how to spot them. Look out with the new rider up here. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under the 7-6-1-8-4-5-9-3 in the exactas. More with the 7-6 than the rest. 

2nd: 11/1-5-4-3/9/7-10/2-6/8…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes here with another one parked to the far outside — Red Mule (11). This one goes for a rider who had a couple of winners on the opening night card, as well, and one of those was for this barn operation. New agent for this jockey is the son of Brad Cox, who just so happens to be the best trainer in the Commonwealth these days. But back to the 6YO gelding…This one comes in off a tough go at Aqueduct last time out. Drops from the $35,000 range all the way to $7,500 here. Barn is off to a good start. This one ran huge just two starts ago and should love this company. I bet the 11 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 11 over/under the 1-5-4-3-9-7-10 in the exactas. More with the 1-5-4-3 than the rest.

3rd: 5/4-1-3-10/7/8/2-6/9…The third “Key Play of the Night” will come here and make the opening “trifecta.” P H Factor (5) is another that will come out of the Larry Rivelli barn, and this guy simply knows how to get the job done. In 4 previous tries here, this one has a record of 2-1-0. Gets a Chicago-based rider up, and has won on this one before — although it came last year. This one is pure speed and will motor from the get go. May improve with the shorter distance here, too. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the 4-1-310-7-8 in the exactas. More with the 4-1-3-10 than the rest. 

4th: 1-5/4-3-8/10-9/6-7//2…Fantail (1) is the ML favorite and should be the PT favorite when it gets ready to load them into the gate. This 5YO mare won by over 61/2 lengths last time out and was claimed by a trainer who wins with .30% of the last 370 to make the first start after the purchase. Gets a veteran rider to make the journey up for the mount. Look out her. Could be gone early in these proceedings. Mimajoon (5) has not raced since last January, and that is a long time between sips of winner’s circle champagne. Gets Lasix for the first time and the barn can win off the bench. Will make the first start for this barn operation, as well, and the trainer wins with .20% of the last 64 to debut in his care. Gets a top rider here to make the saddle game interesting. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-5 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over (only) the 4-3-8-10-9 in two smaller units. 

5th: 11-4-6/1-8-9-10/5/3-12/2-7…Partyline (11) will move from the turf to the AW surface here, and the barn wins with .19% of the last 42 to do that shift. Gets a solid rider up and this one has hit the board in each of the last three outings — against solid competition. Look for this one to be coming late. With a purpose, too. English Treasure (4) goes for one of the top young trainers in the game and he is winning at a .19% rate with 182 starters this year. Gets a TP veteran in the saddle and that could help here. Like the work on Oct. 14. This one would not be a surprise if she ends up in the circle with a photo opportunity. I bet the 11-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 11-4 over/under the 6-1-8-9-10-5-3-12 in two smaller units. 

6th: 3-6/7-12/8-4-2/1-11/9-10-(13)…Laugh and Play (3) has run four solid races in a row and has been a different filly since being equipped with blinkers five races OK. Turned this one around and into a real legit threat in all her races. Barn wins with .20% when converting from the sod to the AW surface. Gets a top rider up here and this one will be on the move early and often. Can they catch and put away? Great question. Querobin Dourada (6) ran in a G3 event at KEE last time out. Didn’t threaten much there, but this is a much different game and spot here. Does have a 1-1-0 record over the AW in 3 previous tries. All of those came here and over this Tapeta surface. Works are solid. Rider does well here and has won .20% of the last 10 for this barn. Chance. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exactas. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 7-12-8-4-2 in two smaller units. 

7th: 7-(13)-1/11/4-5/3-2-6-9/8-10/12…Accredit (7) gets my call here, after all this 4YO colt will be wearing the #7 saddle cloth in the 7th race. Hard to beat that, right? This son of Flatter toss a poor one last out, but that was in a G3 event at KEE. Before that one, this one had hit the board in 5 of the previous 6 races and the miss was a 4th-place finish. Drops in class and cuts back in distance here. Should like both of those alterations. Barberini (13) could be a “Longshot Special of the Night” if he were to draw in from the AE List. Spotted at 20-1 in the ML, but I would take half of those odds and be happy. Comes in with 3 wins in a  row and four in the last 5 outings. I like this one if he makes the gate. I bet the 7-13 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-13 over/under the 1-11-4-5 in two smaller units. 

8th: 9-2/4-6-(14)-7-12/3/(13)-5…Undercover Lady (9) gets my nod in the night’s finale. this 3YO Fed Biz filly will drop significantly and into the bargain bin here for a solid training operation. Barn wins with .27% when dropping this much at one time and with .33% when moving from the dirt to the AW surface. Like this one, especially considering the trainer has gone 4-1-1 in the last 9 starts. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 2-4-6-14-7-12-3 in the exactas. More with the 2-4-6 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene