|Total Day Results||8 / 3-1-2|
|2021 Overall 1,812||1812 / 681-645-848|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.58%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||40.00%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,225-1,812||67.60%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 13-24||54.17%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 10-24||41.67%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 2 / 0-1-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 275/ 124-62-24||45.09% Win / 76.36% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ TP 5 / 0-0-2||00.00% Win / 40.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
We are ready to kick start a new and improved week of handicapping at the “New & Improved” Turfway Park, which will soon be the “Brand New & Amazing” Turfway Park a little later in 2022.
We had a rather ho-hum week last week when we are kicking up the heels and ready for more HO-HO-HO than ho-hum.
Here’s our looks at the Thursday card:
1st: 7-6/9-8-3-10/4/1-2-5…Randello (7) is a 3YO son Capo Bastone and trained by great guy, great friend and great horseman Tommy Drury. Comes in off a 5th place finish at Ellis Park back in August. But this barn wins with .23% off the bench and with .60% when dropping this much at one time. Trainer wins with .27%, overall, with the last 94 in the claiming ranks. This one was owned by the late Dr. J. David Richardson, one of the best peeps in the free world. Rooting here. For old times sake. Junior Bug (6) drops from the $15,000 level back to the $7,500 tag here. Barn wins with a whopping .53% in the 2nd start off a claim purchase. Just two starts ago, this one was 2nd at Arlington Park. In 12 career starts, this one has a 1-2-3 record. Will get a top rider here, who is still looking for the first win of the Holiday Meet. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will go stern. As in? Stern. Ly. I will key the 7-6 over/under the 9-8-3-10-4 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-9/1-12/4-7-(14)/6-10/3-5-11-8…Cupp of Class (2) gets the edge in this spot. The 3YO daughter of Violence has hit the board in each of the last 4 outings and 5 of the last 6. This one has yet to hit the board in a try over the AW, and there has already been 3 of those. Should fit well here. Petrichor (9) drops from the $25,000 mark all the way to the $7,500 price point here. Barn wins with .25% when dropping this much at one time. Will be coming off a layup, too, and the barn wins with .13% of those returning from this long a vacation. Rider was 2nd on this one just two starts ago. Chance. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-9 in the exactas. I will key the 2-9 over/under the 1-12-4-7-14 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-4/3-6/1-2-7/5…Red Ghost (8) has not been out since running 4th in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes at Belmont Park. Before that, this daughter of Ghostzapper was a winner in the G3 Miss Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Don’t see any other Graded Stakes winners in this field, and this one has the speed to dominate. Working well for the return and the barn wins with .24% when away from the gate this long. Will get the Lasix for the 2nd time, too, and that rewards this barn with a win rate of .29% in the last 55 tries. In. Inthemidstofbiz (4) is pure, unquestioned and total speed. Will go right to the front, and the barn wins with .19% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .27% when going from the dirt tracks to the AW, too. Look out here. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-4 over (only) the 3-6-1-2-7 in a smaller unit.
4th: 12-9-1/10-7/3-6-8/11-5-2…Factoire (12) is going to have to negotiate a possible tough trip, after breaking from the #12 hole. But this one has enough speed to pop and go, if that is what this talented rider decides to do and go. Barn wins with .21% in the claiming ranks and with .20% of those moving from the turf course to an AW surface. This one has run one time over the AW. It was a win just two starts ago at Woodbine. Looks to be a tough out here. Mama Lou (9) was claimed last time out for $10,000 and now goes for a price tag twice that high. Ran well last time out and has hit the board in 4 of the last 5 outs. Two of those placings were wins. Sum Kinda Pretty (1) gets consideration here, too. This 3YO daughter of Summer Front was no factor when racing over the mud last time out. But the race two back? Look at that one. Ran over the fast dirt at KEE and closed to win impressively. I bet the 12-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-7 in two smaller units.
5th: (13)-11-1/4-7-3/(14)-10-5/12-6…Madsamoussepousse (13) is a 2YO daughter of the great American Pharoah and is owned, in part, by the Morgan & Morgan Law partnership. Will be making the 3rd career start here — if she draws in from the AE List, and should fit nicely with the move to the AW here. Ran 7th last time out, but that was going 11/6-miles over a yield sod course. Certainly appeared to me that she didn’t handle that race surface or that race distance. Switches to a high % jockey here, who is on an absolute tear to open this new meet. Barn wins with .34% over an AW surface, and this latest work on Dec. 2 was spot on. Spot. On. Look out. Run for the Hills (11) is a speed merchant, who is likely going to try to take this group first from get to go. Drops in class here and the barn wins with .21% over the AW. Work here on Dec. 2 was good enough to inspire. I bet the 13 if she draws in from the AE List. If not? I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the 11-1 in the exactas. I will key the 13 over/under in the exactas if she draws in. If not, I insert the 11 in that spot and do the same thing.
6th: 1-10/3-8-2/4-7-9/5-6…Miss McBride (1) is a 3YO Munnings filly who is owned by great friends, who look like they may be sitting on a good one here. This will be the 2nd try at the distance, and this one ran well last time out over a sloppy track when getting two turns for the first time. Barn wins with .06% when racing a route of ground for the 2nd time. As in? Ever. Work on Dec. 2 was solid. Look for this one to push the early pace manners. Skybox (10) could be an upset thought in this very deep and talented MSW try. This daughter of Quality Road gets a new trainer for the first time. She wins with .50% of the late arrivals in 2 starts for this operation. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-10 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 1-10 over/under the 3-8-2-4-7-9 in two softer versions.
7th: 1-4-5/1A-3-10-2/8-9/6-7…I will go back to the inside here with Straitouttapopcorn (1), who will be racing for the first time since June 1. Barn wins with a modest .12% in the first try off the vacation. But the trainer wins with .25% when going from turf to the AW, and this filly just loves this surface. In 10 starts here, she has a 5-3-0 record. In 13 starts over AW, all told, she is a 6-4-0. This Spring, she had two wins before running a 5th. Look for a rebound effort here and the work on Nov. 27 suggests she is ready for more. Sursum Corda (4) is a deep, deep, deep closer and must find some way to rev the engines before it is too late. Came with a rush last time out at KEE. This group is easier and the barn does win with .17% when moving from turf to the AW. Gets a very aggressive rider in the irons. Interesting move here. Jazzy Lady (5) was claimed last time out in a race where she won easily and impressively. That came against easier and now gets a new rider for the first time. In 3 previous tries here? Has a win and 2 seconds. Look for this one to love it here, too. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-10-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 2-6-(13)/1-7/4-9-11/3-5-8-12…Devilly (2) gets the nod in the finale, and this daughter of Noble Mission may be worth the $15,000 price tag here. Has run 3 times and really ran very, very well in the career debut at Ellis Park over the grass. That has been the only sod race for this one. Why not more? Work of late, OK. May love the AW. If you are shopping, this one may be in the basket. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-13-1-7-4-9-11-3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene