|2020 Overall 134||134/45-39-49|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.58%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.08%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –91-134||67.91%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 82-120||68.33%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 41-120||34.16%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 21-4-8-4||19.04% Win / 76.19% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 22-5-8-4||22.73% Win / 77.27% ITM|
We only scrapped together 2 wins out of the 8 races carded on Saturday night. Not a great percentage in the win column, to be sure.
But we still had a lot of fun. Hopefully, you did, too.
We hit for exactas that returned $22.50, $16.00, $15.81, $18.30, $10.10 and $38.20 for each $1 wagered in those same 8 races. That’s a great percentage in the win column, to be sure. And, a profitable one, too.
Here’s hoping for some solid returns as we start the week. And, here’s a look at tonight’s card:
1st: 3-4-7/5-8…This is certainly a wide, wide, wide open affair to begin the nighttime activities. If you are playing the “horizontals” (Pick 3, Pick 4 or Pick 5), I would be very tempted to hit the “all button” in this one. But if you are trying to narrow the field, I would give a slight edge to our top 3 numbers — led by Tay Town (3). This 4YO daughter of Jersey Town ran a good one here on Dec. 26, losing by 11/4 lengths . Runner-up in that one came right back to win again. Trainer hits with .24% of those that make the 3rd start off a layup and with .20% of those that start in the MCL ranks. In two starts here, has two thirds. Best resume of this group. Live It Up (4) drops a classification and falls to the lowest level ever. This 4YO daughter of Justin Phillip ran well against tougher to be 3rd last time out. Shorter distance tonight could boost this one’s chances. Anima (7) has scored 3 third place finishes in the last 4 outings. Has not really been close to winning in any of those, but does rate a chance in this group. Has only run twice over the AW in the career, but has the pedigree to excel over it. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
2nd: 7/9-3-2/8…The first Key Play of the Night should probably go off at odds of 1-10. Seriously. Peekacho (7) won the Prairie Bayou Stakes last time out here on Dec. 31. Won that one by a neck over two horses that came right back to win the next time out. The “Show” horse that night just won a Stakes event down South against the “Big Boys.” Out of the last 9 races, Peekacho has scored 6 wins. Has a nice stalking style and can kick on with some guts at the wire, too. On paper? Much the best. But they will run this one over the “plastic.” So…never know…But…I bet the 7 to win (only) and then key the 7 over/under the “all button.”
3rd: 10-4/7-2-1-1A/8-5-6…This is another wide open affair, with a number of capable candidates. I will lock in on the top two tiers in here as the keys to the race, IMO. Redhot Katie (10) gets a slight edge in the win column. Since losing the blinkers six races ago, the 4YO filly has hit the board four times. Has a win in that mix, too. Ran OK against similar company last time out. Winner of that one came right back to win next out, too. Barn has a 3-2-2 record in 17 starts this meet. Chance. I Saw Her First (4) won impressively last time out here to break the maiden. Would not surprise, at all, if she wheels right back in this spot. Started out the career with Tom Proctor up at Fair Hill. Ran OK in the first outing against much, much better. Since coming here, she has done nothing wrong. Gets the meet’s top rider to stay the course, too. My pick. I bet the 4 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 10-4 in one exacta. I will key the 10-4 over/under the 7-2-1-8 in two smaller versions.
4th: 10-7-9/6-11-1-2-12/8-3…We are stacked with a bunch of fillies that are dropping in class; getting equipment changes; changing venues and trainers; or a combination of all three. Leaves one scratching the head and the paper, too. But I will go with Fireside Kitten (10) on top here. This 3YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy may be worth the $30,000 price tag, if one is hunting and buying. Ran for this price last time out and was 2nd. Well-beaten, mind you. But 2nd. Tired in the late going. Barn is having a very nice meet, winning with .24% of 63 starters. Gets a nice rider switch here, and the the barn has teamed up with the jockey to go 2-1-0 in the last 5 mounts. Looks best. Dreamin’ of Munny (7) goes for my good friend and trainer, too. She ran third here on debut for less. Was outside nearly the whole way in that one when breaking from the 10 hole. Ran better than it looked on paper. Take a glimpse at the video. Gets back against tougher, which is a good sign. Barn hits with .18% in the 2nd career race and the works have picked up, too. Chance at a nice price. My first Upset Special of the Night. I bet the 10-7 across the board and then box those two in one exacta. I will key the 10-7 over/under the 9-6-11-1-2-12-8 in two smaller versions.
5th: 3-1-2/7-9-(13)-10/4-5-8-11-(14)…Auntie Mabel (3) went off at a nice price in the career debut here on Jan. 2 and nearly pulled off a nice one. Came running with a dash at the end of that 6.5-furlong sprint and nearly got the money at 13-1 odds. Beat a good one who finished 3rd that day, too. Has come back to work very well for a barn that is winning with .24% here this meet after 29 starts. Adds up for me. Kisses for Heidi (1) gets treat with Lasix for the first time tonight and that could help this closer, too. Will route for the first time, and the barn hits with .11% of those kind. Meet’s top rider takes the reins Nice move. Purple Martin (2) was the PT favorite last time out. Now, she is posted at 8-1 odds in the ML tonight. Wow. Ran much better in each of the first two starts that it shows on paper. Was slow to start in each of those, and left wide and too much work to do at the end. Look for more and better out of this one. My 2nd Upset Special of the Night comes with the same connections. I think she will run much better than those odds. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 1-7-9-(13)-10-4 in two smaller versions.
6th: 6-5/2-3-7/1-8-9-4…Catty Krys (6) comes into this one off two impressive performances here since moving to the AW for the first time. May have found her niche. Ran 2nd and was beaten just a neck back on Dec. 13. Came right back to win here on Jan. 4. Meet’s top rider takes the reins back after winning with this one in the last outing. In 4 starts for this barn this meet, the jockey has 3 wins. Nice. Ameribelle (5) is another who has done well since moving here in December, too. Ran a winner on Dec. 13, coming from off a nice stalking position. Came back to just get nipped at the wire in the last outing when wide. In 5 races over this track, she has a 2-1-0 record. Rider has won with .26% of the last 19 mounts for this barn. I bet the 6 to win/place show and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers in the exacta. I use more with the 5-2-3-7-1 than the rest.
7th: 6-8/5-11-1A/1-7/10-2/9-4…Systemic Risk (6) was a gamble right from the start of her career. She is a daughter of Into Mischief — one of the best sires of our time. Stands for $175,000 stud fee at the time she was bred. Now, stands for more than that. In January of last year, the 4YO filly sold for a modest $19,000 at Keeneland. Took her awhile to get going, but after losing the blinkers, she has raced 6 times. Has hit the board in 4 of them with 2 wins. Against some good ones at Woodbine, too. In 6 starts over the poly, she has 2 wins. Will get a drop tonight and the first time over this track. But I like her chances at a square price. Urban Insight (8) is definitely the horse to beat. This 5YO daughter of Street Sense ran a huge one over this track on Dec. 18. First time over the AW and came running with a mission. That was second time with the blinkers, too. Gets a huge rider switch for this one. Working well at KEE. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 5-11-1A-7 in two smaller versions.
8th: 11-3/6-12/4-7-8…This is a dart throw. Could be anyone or anything at any time. I will give the slight edge to Beach Hut (11), despite the far outside post. This one has a 3-4-0 record in 14 tries over this track and picks up the meet’s top rider, to boot. He is suspect, at best, but may out-run this group. Richiesonarampage (3) is an Illinois-bred and has not fared well in two tries over this track. Does have a 3-6-2 mark in 20 tries over an AW surface, though. Ran well at Arlington Park last Summer against much, much better. Maybe he can find that form again? Get Em Up Scout (6) is a California-bred who will try the AW for the first time. Has the breeding to like it some, and the trainer can be sneaky good at times. Like the work pattern at KEE of late and gets a rider who won on this one back in September. Chance. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then key the 11 over/under the rest of them. I go lightly here.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene