|2020 Overall 166||166/59-50-60|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.54%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.94%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –112-166||67.47%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 103-152||67.76%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 55-152||36.18%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 24-4-9-5||16.67% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 25-5-9-5||20.00% Win / 76.00% ITM|
It is Valentine’s Day. No better present to give the lovely than a day at the races. Leigh and I are in Hot Springs, Arkansas. At Oaklawn Park. Just spoke to a group of great people, and getting ready to have a blast at one of the most historic and iconic racing venues in the entire world.
On Thursday, we did well up at Turfway. Had 4 winners on the card. Had exacta scores in 7 of the 8 races. Not a huge blast, but a steady return for the night.
Here are the picks for Turfway on Friday — Valentines Night. And, what a great race card — highlighted by two Stakes events and preps for Jeff Ruby Steaks Day. Here’s a look:
1st: 4-9/3-5-7-2…My Sweet Baboo (4) is dropping considerably for this event. Lowers out of the $30,000 bracket to the $15,000 level. Ran 2nd in the last outing and the barn hits with .21% of those dropping this far in one swoop. Gets a rider who has hit with .44% of the last 18 rides for this barn. Barn is having a tremendous meet, too. My solid pick. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-9 in one exacta. I will key the 4-9 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
2nd: 3-5/6-4/7-2…No Interest (3) was claimed last time out and now moves up in class a couple of notches. Ran a nice second last time out and won the previous try here. Gets the meet’s top rider to take the reins. Will face tougher in this spot, but the 7YO Tale of the Cat mare looks good right now. Has hit the board in each of the last 7 outs. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-5 in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
3rd: 4-6-10/5-9/8-11-7-12…Sperling (4) goes for a barn that has 2 wins and 2 seconds in just 11 starts here and the rider is top notch — winning with .21% of just 19 mounts. Won here last time out coming from way back and looks solid to repeat. Barn hits with .27% of those trying to win back-to-back in the claiming ranks. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 10-5-9-8-11 in two smaller versions.
4th: 2-8-9/1-7-3-4/5-10…Drama Run (2) is a 5YO Big Drama mare who is coming off a race where she lost by a skinny nose. Came from a stalking position and just missed. Gets the meets top jockey and will make the 2nd start off a claim for a barn that hits with .33% of these kind. Looks good in this spot. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 9-1-7-3-4-5 in two smaller versions.
5th: 7-9-6/1-8-10/3-12-4-5/2-11…John Battaglia Memorial Stakes…This is a major prep for the Jeff Ruby and I will go with Toma Todo (7) in this spot. The 3YO English Channel colt ran 2nd the last time out in the Texas Turf Stakes at Sam Houston. The key race for me was the debut effort, though. Won at Churchill Downs and beat the likes of Peace Achieved. Gets a top rider for this barn and the trainer hits with .20% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Shake Some Action (9) goes for the barn of Brad Cox — one of the top trainers in the country now. Broke the maiden last time out. Moves way up. But look out. Son of Into Mischief looks to have the talent. I don’t dismiss lightly. Truculent (6) just broke the maiden, too, but has run 3 really good races against some talented competitors. The only “bad” race came when he was equipped with blinkers. That experiment didn’t work out. But this horse just may. I bet the 7-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 7-9 over/under the 6-1-8-10-3-12 in two smaller versions.
6th: 9-4/1-5-7/3-8-2/6…Brezno (9) won the last time out when dropped to the bargain bin. Moves up a couple of notches off that performance, but the barn is having a very nice meet and the rider is the best in the business at TP. In 7 starts over this track, this 10YO gelding has a 4-1-1 record. Impressive. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-4 in one exacta. I will key the 9-4 over/under the 1-5-7-3-8-2 in two smaller versions.
7th: 10-7-3/6-8/9-11/3-4-1-5…Cincinnati Trophy Stakes…Karak (10) gets the top nod for me. This 3YO daughter of Karakontie has raced in 4 Stakes events after breaking the maiden on debut last May at Belmont Park. Only miscue came after the ship to Royal Ascot. Looks salty and experienced. Anna’s Fast (7) is the top pick’s stablemate. Has an easy and impressive win over this tack in late December. This one gets the meet’s top rider. Interesting. I bet the top two picks across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 10-7 over/under the 3-6-8-9-11 in two smaller versions.
8th: (To Come)
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene