|2019 Overall 1,505||1,505/526-543-661|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.95%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.32%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –984 of 1,505||65.38%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 37-64||57.81%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 23-64||35.94%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 5-3-0-0||60.00%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 220-86-43-22||39.09% Win / 68.64% ITM|
Time to kick off another week of live racing action up at the soon-to-be new and already-improved Turfway Park, domiciled in beautiful Florence, KY.
Now that Woodbine has closed for the winter months, much of the night time and winter time racing will be focused on two venues — Aqueduct in New York and Turfway Park in Kentucky.
We are excited about the opportunity to review, examine and handicap more races in the Commonwealth and we are hoping that you will enjoy watching and wagering.
Here’s a look at the card for Turfway Park on Wednesday night:
1st: 11-1-10/4-9/12-(13)-2-3-8…Madam Novetzke (11) ran well when being treated with Lasix for the first time in her last outing at Churchill Downs on Nov. 17. Now, she gets dropped to the near bargain bin for this outing. Has trained well for the return. Gets a rider who has 2 wins in 3 spots this meet — all for this barn. And, the trainer hits with .31% of those dropping this far in one swoop. Has a couple of other challengers in here, but this one should be salty and likely to be haltered, as well. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the 1-10-4-9-12 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 2-10-9/4-5-11/3-(14)-1…Stay in Yo Lane (2) gets the slight edge in this one, which is wide open to all entered and gated. This 3YO gelding is coming off a huge win at Hawthorne, but does now lose that condition. Barn hits with .21% of those shipping to run, and with .25% trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Meet’s top rider takes the reins. Big edge in pilots. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
3rd: 4-8/1-2-6-10/7-5-11…Hot Copy (4) gets a huge drop in class for this tilt, and the barn hits with .08% when converting from the dirt to the all-weather surfaces. Love the work going into the last race. Was wide in that one. Can dismiss. Should relish the drop in company and the dam of this has has been really good. She was a Stakes winner who has 5 winners from 6 starters. Breeding is there. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-8 in one exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 1-2-6-10-7 in two smaller versions.
4th: 12/13-9/2-5/6-7-8…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Cantaloupe Island (12). This 3YO daughter of Ghostzapper would not be a bad pick-up for the $5,000 claim tag. Comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who has a 1-1-1 mark in 3 starts here this Holiday Meet. Comes off a nice third at Indy Grand last time out in October. Ran over the sod that day. Should covert to the all-weather nicely, and the barn hits with .27% when dropping this far. I bet the 12 to win/place and then key the 12 over/under the 13-9-2-5-6.
5th: (14)-12-7/2-6-8-9/(13)-10-3-11…The top pick here will come from the AE List — Gliding Alone (14). If the 7YO gelding draws in, I can embrace. The Ohio-bred has been facing much tougher and does have a third in only previous run over this track. Gets a rider who has won with .25% of the last 8 mounts for this barn. But if he is left out of the gate, I will go to Half of Manhattan (12). This 7YO gelding will be dropping in class and has a 3-0-3 mark in just 8 starts over the all-weather. Has a 1-1-2 record in 9 starts this year, but looks like he should pick his head up against these types. My pick. I bet the 14 if he gets in. If not? I go to the 12, and bet him across the board. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exacta, and then key the 14/12 over/under the 7-2-6-8-9.
6th: 8-10/4-1-9-5/2-3-6…Seductive (8) comes in off a nice performance over the all-weather surface at Woodbine in the last outing. Will start for a new barn operator tonight for the first time, and the new crew hits with only .04% of the debut runners. Gets a top rider in the irons, though, and the work pattern suggests this one is ready. Bourbon Girl (10) has not raced since June, but is coming off back-to-back wins for a top, young trainer. Knows the way to the winner’s circle and hits with .13% of those away from the gate this long. Love the work two starts back. Take note. I bet the 8-10 across the board and hen box those 2 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 4-1-9-5-2 in two smaller versions.
7th: 9/8-7/2-4-5-11/6-10-1…My second Key Play of the Day comes here with Stolen Beauty (9). I have previously written about the saga of this speedball, and she looks really, really, really good right now. Take note of the new ownership interest, who have bought into this 3YO daughter of Tapizar after the impressive win last time out. Must face winners for the first time tonight, but she has the speed to run this group off their feet — with a clean break. Watch out here. Could be coming right into her own. I’m rooting hard. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the 8-7-2-4-5-11.
8th: 1-12/9-8-6/(13)-5-10-3-(14)…Aspens Little Zip (1) will be making her first start for a new barn operation tonight, and the trainer hits with .12% of those coming off the claim. Will drop a notch in price, too, and the barn hits with .15% of those. Has speed. Will need to try to carry it from the rail, and the work here on Dec. 7 was very encouraging. Trainer off to a good start this meet. Despina (12) is at the other extreme of the starting gate and this one will most likely be coming from off the pace, a bit. Drops in class and should relish the easier group setting. Barn hits with .17% of those in the claiming ranks. Chance. I bet the 1-12 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 1-12 over/under the 9-8-6-(13)-5 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene