Day’s Results 8 / 3-3-3
2022 Overall — 2219 2219 / 751-800-1031
Win % of Top Pick 33.84%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.79%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1420-2219 63.99%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP 22-32 68.75%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 10-32 31.25%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 7/2-2-1 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569 66.43%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569 34.97%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8 47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  329/ 135-71-33 41.03% Win / 72.64% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2 16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6 21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM

Here’s our looks at Turfway Park on Wednesday night, as we kick-start another great week of Thoroughbred racing in the great Commonwealth of Kentucky:

1st: 7-10/1-9/2-8/3-5-4/6…Ellie Deli (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on “Hump Day” at the new & improved Turfway Park. First post is set for 5:55 p.m. ET. This 2YO West Coast filly finds herself in the Midwest for the first time after starting the career at Delaware Park. Moves to a new trainer, who is winning at a whopping .26% rate after the first 339 starts this year. Wins with .29% of the last 45 to make the first start with the new barn operator. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Lots to like here. Inside Girl (10) will make the 2nd start for the top barn of Brad Cox, who is off to a rather uncustomary slow start to the meet. Has just 1 win and 1 second in the first 7 starts. This one sold for $200,000 a year ago and now is offered up for $7,500. Ran zero in the career debut. That was over the slop, though, and against much, much tougher. Chance here, one might think. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 1-9-2-8 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 7-2-8/11-9/10/6/1-4-5…Holy Cross (7) could give us back-to-back #7s to start the night. This 5YO gelding has run two runner-ups in a row against solid competition. Gets the meet’s top rider back up here and the barn — which is new to these zip codes — wins with .18% in the claiming ranks. Chance. Golden Survivor (2) ships in from Presque Isle and has hit the board in 3 in a row and 7 of the last 8. Consistent sort, for sure. In 8 tries over AW surfaces, has a 1-4-2 mark. Chance II. Triple Chrome (8) drops in the pecking order here and will make the AW debut here. Chicago-based rider takes the mount. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 8-11-9-10-6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 12-3-4/7/1-2-5/6-11-8-9…Goshen (12) gets the nod here. This 2YO Classic Empire filly returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .11% of those types. Will make the debut for this trainer, and he will drop this filly to half the asking price to begin. Gets a top speed rider for this occasion. Look out. Captive Star (3) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one drops two classifications and the barn wins with .20% when making this big a plunge in the ranks. Gets the son-in-law for the saddle job. Threat. Conneimaura (4) drops a couple of rungs, too, and this barn wins with .20% of the last 184 in the MCL ranks. Gets the meet’s top jockey up. I bet the 12-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

4th: 12-5/8-7-2-3/6-(14)-(13)/10/1-4-9…We got right back outside and line up with what could be the second #12 in a row to run a big race. Link to Destiny (12) drops to the “bargain bin” for the first time since breaking the MCL here at that level back in 2020. Top trainer owns this one, as well, and ran a big one last out off the long layoff. Barn wins with .31% of the last 120 to return to the gate as a beaten favorite. Snake Bite (5) goes for a trainer who is a perfect 2-for-2 to start the meet. This one ran huge in the late going to be 2nd across the river here last time out. Any improvement? Could be right there. Has a 1-3-4 mark in 10 races here in the past. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the 12-5 in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 12-5 over/under the 8-7-2-3-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 5-8-(13)/10-12/1-4-7/6-11/3-9…Moment to Shine (5) is another from the barn of Larry Rivelli and will get the expert services of the meet’s hottest rider, too. They have teamed up to go 11-3-3 in the last 25 races together. This one ran 3rd on debut at Churchill Downs on Nov. 16. Should be salty here. Happysecret (8) didn’t fire last time out, but the first two races of the career were spot on. Finds a softer group here and should be better for a trainer who wins with .22% on the AW surfaces. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-8-13 in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 10-12-1-4-7 in two smaller units. 

6th: (14)-7-1-10/6-8-11-12-(13)/3-5/4-9…If Hard Rye Guy (14) draws in from the AE List for this spot, then I definitely go here. This one has never raced for this low a price tag and does have a win and two runner-ups over this surface in 7 previous attempts — all against tougher. Gets the meet’s top rider if he can. Liberty Blue (7) gets the vote of confidence if the #14 does not draw in. This 5YO gelding came running with a flurry at the end of the last outing. That was over AW at Presque Isle. Gets the meet’s top rider, if the outside horse does not draw in, as well. I bet either the 14 or the 7 across the board. If they both run, then I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. If the 14 is not in, I box the 7-1-10. I will key the 14-7 over/under the 1-10-6-8-11-12 in two smaller units. 

7th: 9-10-7/3-11-1/5-8-6-(13)/2/12-(14)…Idiomatic (9) has run two very nice events to start the career for trainer Brad Cox, and if this one is primed to perfection off the long layoff, then watch out. Barn wins with .30% when returning as a beaten favorite and with .24% of he last 996 to compete in allowance ranks. Gets a top rider, who can get the most out of his mounts if aggressive. Look out. Maybe Later (10) has faced some good ones of late and figures here, as well. Barn wins with .22% when shipping and that is with a sample pool of 166 horses. Crystal Ship (7) has speed and can tote it. Look out early and often here. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 10-7-3-11-1 in two smaller units. 

8th: 6-8/9-11-12-5/1/2-4-7-10…The finale is a 1-mile contest at the $7,500 MCL level. I ante up with Memphis Prayer (6). This 4YO gelding has a modest pedigree, but has hit the board in 4 of 6 lifetime starts. Drops to the lowest level he has ever raced at and the same benchmark where he was claimed here in February. Chance to prance here. B G Lee (8) picks up the meet’s top rider, who is winning at a .44% rate after the first 25 mounts of the meet. Are you kidding me? Wow numbers. This one was claimed for $30,000 just two starts ago. Now, this one offered up for $7,500. Look out. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box these two numbers sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-8 over (only) the 9-11-12-5-1 in a smaller unit.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene