McLean’s Selections for Twilight Thursday at Churchill Downs — May 18

(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis’ card on Wednesday is completed)

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs on Twilight Thursday:

1st: 7-5-6/3/1-8/2-4/9…Stormquist (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-town on Twilight Thursday. This 2YO son of KY Derby winner Nyquist comes into this inaugural romp off a series of super works at his home track in Chicago. Barn wins with .23% when debuting in the MSW and the trainer also wins with .28% of the last 111 to start in MSW company. Dam of this colt has thrown 8 winners from 9 starters and 2 Stakes winners, too. Huge threat. Gold Sweep (5) is another first timer in this 2YO baby race. This one is a son of a super sire in Speightstown. Working very well and picks up a top rider for the occasion. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters. Not bad. Top of the Street (6) has a chance here, too. Barn is a little lax when it comes to prepping hard for the first start. But? This one is training very well and the dam of this one has a winner from 1 starter, to date. Sharp work on May 13. Chance. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-7-1/6/4/2//3…Monocacy (5) has not started since early January. Has won only once in the last 14 starts, too. And? has not been even close in the last 10 outings. So what’s up? Drops from the $30,000 level all the way to $10,000 here and the blinkers go back on. Both of those things could put this one in the hunt. Flores (7) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 5YO mare has not raced since May 26 of 2022. A year ago. But ran well in the slop that day against much tougher. Barn wins with 0-for-3 that have been away this long. Rider is 0-0-0 in 4 rides this meet. Ugh. Puglia (1) has done her best running over the AW surface. Nothing in two starts over the traditional dirt. But? Gets a top rider for this one and that could help the cause. Dart toss here. Anyone. Anybody. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I bet the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-4 in two smaller units. All button in the horizontals. 

3rd: 2-5/4-7-9-6/3/1-8…Frog Town (2) drops for this one and should be a contender again, like he was two starts ago. Gets a new rider who is struggling a bit to begin this meet. Only 1 win in the first 32 starts. This guy has a 2nd in only previous try here, and rates a chance. Humor Me Now (5) ran off to a huge win last time out at Oaklawn Park. That was on April 30. He was claimed that day, too. New barn operator wins with .19% of the last 321 to make the first start for the new connections. Love the rider choice here, too. I bet the 5 — take note — across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-5 in the exactas. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 4-7-9-6-3 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1-12-4/11-10-9/6-2/7…This is a 13/8-mile marathon over the sod, and I will go with the rail bird — Hay Stack (1). This 3YO daughter of War Front is well bred, including out of a Stakes-placed dam who has thrown 2 turf winners already. This gal won the last time out and has that the board in each of the last 3 tries. Last two? She was racing on Lasix and they were the best races of her life. Top rider up for the U.S.A’s best turf trainer. Lots to like. Joyful Applause (12) has more experience than our top pick and rates a serious threat. Has hit the board in each of the last 5 and 8 of the last 9. This one is consistent and will be plugging the entire way. Elle Est Forte (4) has hit the board in 8 of 14 lifetime tries. But only 1 win. Needs to find a way to finish it off, but beginning to doubt that she has that trait. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas, and then key the 1-12 over/under the 4-11-10-9-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3/8-12-6/1-4/9/7-10-11…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Mo Moves (3). This 3YO son of Mo Town is trained by the same man who coached the sire. This guy is getting better and better, too, and ran very well with the blinkers added last time out. Look for more improvement with the significant drop in class. My pick. Solid. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I key the 3 over/under the 8-12-6-1-4-9 in the exactas. More with the 8-12-6 than the rest. 

6th: 7-5/4-3-1/6-8/2…Intrepid Heart (7) gets the nod here. Has only one win in the last 11 starts. Has only 2 wins in 11 career starts here, too. But This one drops in class and has faced much tougher in the past. Trainer is off to a great start here, winning with 3 of the first 8 starters. Gets a huge rider, who nearly won on this one here last November. Look out. Disc Jockey (5) has talent, but the trainer has issues. Big time issues. This one has speed, too, and has 2 wins in 4 tries at this distance. Shot. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-5 in the exactas. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 4-3-1-6-8 in two smaller units. 

7th: 10-11/(13)-(15)-8-6-12/7/1-2/5…This is the final grass race of the night and it will be contested at the distance of 11/16-miles. I go to the outside and saddle up with Mise En Scene (10). This 4YO Brit-bred filly has raced here three times since shipping from across the pond. First two were in G1s, and she no-showed. Last time out, she ran in a conditioned allowance and nearly won with this rider up. I like this one to get the job done here. Big time. Manuca (11) is my “Upset Special of the Night.” No doubt. Gets Lasix for the first time and will race in the U.S. for the first time since moving here from Argentina. Like the rider choice and this man can train. Barn wins with .24% of the last 34 to make the first start for the new connections. I bet the 10-11 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 10-11 over/under the 13-15-8-6-12-7 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-3-9/6-5/2-10/8/7…Penumbras Maker (1) gets the nod in the finale. This 3YO filly has hit the board in 6 of 10 so far, but no wins. New rider can help the cause, if he is on his “A” game. May improve with a return to the dirt, too. Barn wins with .16% other last 44 to switch from the sod to the main track. Freedom for All (3) ran better last time out at Oaklawn Park and may improve some more here. Chance. Fancy (9) moves from the sod to the main track, as well, and this barn wins with .25% of the last 75 to make this surface switch. Trainer has gone 6-0-6 in the last 18. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-5 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene