Days Picks 13 / 2-3-5
2024 Overall — 386 386 / 111-114-160
Win % of Top Pick 28.76%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 33.25%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 218-386 56.48%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 206-368 55.98%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 103-368 27.99%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  34/ 12-8-5 35.29% Win / 73.53% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 35/ 12-8-5 34.29% Win / 71.43% ITM

(Stats to be updated after today’s action)

Here’s our looks at the two Stakes events at Keeneland today:

7th: 12-9-5/4-8-10-(13)/3-6-11/1-2…Palisades Stakes…As in most of these types of specialty, 5.5-furlong sprints over the sod, this one is a wide open affair. Wide. Open. While I will give the undefeated Refuel (6) — who is a perfect 2-for-2 for trainer Todd Pletcher — the initial call, the 3YO son of Hard Spun is, er, hardly a sure thing. The colt cost $550,000 at the 2022 KEE September Sale and has not disappointed, as of it. Broke the MSW at Gulfstream Park this year at first ask and came back to win the next out, too, with similar ease and front-running style. Will catch a much, much different surface here. One, in fact, that does have grass on it. And, a lot of it, too. So, I think this one is ripe for an upset. Committee of One (9) has been moved off the sod in each of the last two, but ran credible races, just the same. Has a win over this track and ran well against the toughest in the crop in last Fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Look for a big effort here at a nice price. Silent Heart (5) is trained by one of the most under-rated conditioners in the game. Comes off a near miss 3rd going a mile in the Colonel Liam. Shortens back up where he won 2 in a row going 5. Threat. If you are shopping for a real long shot, look no farther than Shards (10). This one got a great prep at Turfway Park in the last out and nearly won the Indian Summer here last October, too. Ran a huge one in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, despite traffic issues. Look out at a huge price. I bet the 9-10 across the board and then box the 9-5-10 in the exactas. Take note. I will key the 9-5-10 over/under 12-4-8 in two smaller under.

8th: 6-1/3/4/2/5…G2 Beaumont Stakes…While I will go hunting for the big price in the 7th, I will lock and load with the chalk and the Brad Cox duo here. Youalmosthadme (6) deserves to be the favorite. Won the last two of the 2023 campaign, including a Stakes here and is a perfect 2-for-2 over this track. Can stalk. Can speed. Can close. Can win. The only one I think who has a shot at defeating this daughter of Oxbow is the stablemate, Denim and Pearls (1). This daughter of Into Mischief has the pedigree upside and has a near win this year over the slop at Oaklawn Park. Should be fitter, and has a win here, too. I bet the 6 to win/place and then box the 6-1 solid, sternly in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene