|Days Results||9 / 2-3-3|
|2023 Overall — 385||385 / 120-131-170|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.17%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.45%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 222-385||57.66%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 194-338||57.40%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 104-338||30.77%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 38/19-7-3||50.00% Win / 76.32% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 4/4-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 1/1-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/25-8-4||49.02% Win / 72.55% ITM|
Here’s our looks for this Thursday night, as we kick start the best week of racing at Turfway Park for the year and concludes with the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on Saturday night:
1st: 2-8/4-3-6//1-5-7…In Lieu (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the new and improved Turfway Park on this Thursday night celebration of life. This 3YO KY-bred son of Bal a Bali has run three good ones here since Jan. 19. Chance to win all 3 of those. Just needs to finish the job and gets a new rider for this occasion. Could be the difference. I look no farther or further. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-8 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 4-3-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-7/1-9-10/2-4-5-6…Artemus Sweetheart (3) goes for a solid barn operation that is still looking for the first win of the meet. Has gone 0-for-16 so far. This one has run here 4 times, though, with a 2nd and 2 thirds. Will be coming late. Very late. Very, very late. If she can get a free path? Look out late. She’s a Keeper (7) ran out of gas last time out when sprinting and now will stretch out to a route for the first time. Seems counter-intuitive, but this barn willing to ry a chance here. Chance. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-7 in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 1-9-10-2-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1/2-7-5/8/3-9/4-6…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with the railbird — Estilo Peligroso (1). This one has run here 8 times previously. Has 4 runner-ups on the resume. Drops back to the “bargain bin” for this attempt. Ran two super 2nds at this level in January. Gets a new rider her and a strong finisher. Look for this one late. Very late. Very, very late. But I am looking for this one in the winner’s circle. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 2-7-5-8-3-9 in the exactas. More with the 2-7-5 than the rest.
4th: 4-9/3/1-6/2/8/5…I go with the #4 horse in the 4th race. Have to, right? Lady Pele (4) ran well at this same level here on Feb. 25. Rider is a bit sketchy. Needs to focus on what’s in front of him and not what is behind, as he is likely to do. But? But this one seems to have the best late kick and that style certain plays well here. My pick. Fragrant (9) gets a new rider and that may assist this shipper from West Virginia. Has run two good ones since getting the blinkers two starts ago. Barn wins .28% when going to the gate with a beaten favorite. Big shot here. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 3-1-6-2 in two smaller units.
5th: 8-11/5-12/10-7/6//3-9…Tiz Susan Ann (8) goes for a trainer who has a 1-1-0 mark in just two starts this meet. May have won the last time out if the rider had found a better spot. Looked much the best in that one, too. In 5 starts here? Has a 1-2-1 mark. Look out. Talk Radio (11) goes for a trainer who has won with .26% of the last 361 starters. This rider has won with .20% of the last 5 for the trainer, too. Drops in class here. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-11 in the exactas. I will key the 8-11 over/under the 5-12-10-7-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 11-10-2/3-7/8-9/1-5/4-6…Sweets maker (11) has run two ince 3rds in a row and could improve here. Barn wins with .17% when returning with a beaten favorite, and picks up a huge rider switch for this one, too. Rider has gone 6-4-3 in the last 19 mounts. Nice. Look out here. Jungle Cat (10) could be an upset play here. Ran well off a long, long layoff last time out. Rider has won with just 7 of 94 mounts this meet. Ugh. But this one could improve for a barn that has won with .23% this meet. Blessing the Flag (2) goes for a trainer who is 0-for-34 this meet. That’s a lot of chances. That’s a lot of losses. Gets a top rider and he teamed up to run 2nd by a neck here on Feb. 25. Shot. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-8/1-5/2-6/4-7…Nobals (3) returns to action after a considerable layoff. Went 4 wins in 6 starts last year — including two victories here. Has speed. A ton of it and the trainer is winning with .28% of 25 starts here this meet, too. Finished last year a bit dull, but both those were in G3 Stakes. Look for a flash of lightning here. I’m in. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-8 handsomely in the exactas. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 1-5-2-6 in two smaller units.
8th: 6/5-8-7/4/2-12/3-9/11…The last race of the night and the final “Key Play of the Evening,” too. If you have not checked out our “Key Plays” win and “ITM” rate? Check it out. Hate to say it (no I don’t), but it’s impressive. This 4YO son of Cupid — Roan for the Rose (6) — looks impressive here. Claimed two starts back of a top outfit. Moved up and ran 2nd by a neck at this same level last time out. Fits here. Been over this track 4 times. Has 3 seconds. Time for graduation. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 6 over/under the 5-8-7-4-2-12 in the exactas. More with the 5-8-7 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
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