Day Results 8 / 1-2-4
2021 Overall 73 73 / 21-24-29
Win % of Top Pick 28.77%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 25.11%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 43-73 58.90%
2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 38-64 59.38%
2021 Top Selections Win / TP 17-64 26.56%
“Key Horses” @ TP 11 / 6-2-0 54.54% Win / 72.73% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 14 / 8-2-0 57.14% Win / 71.43% ITM

Had only a single winner on Friday night at the “new and Improved” Turfway Park. Would have been two winners. But…a DQ cost us dearly in the 4th race. Just saying.

But things could have been worse.

We did cash two exactas that returned $43.00 and $56.20 for each $2 played.

We had exactas that paid $8.10, $40.80 and a whopping $83.750 for each $1 played.

And, our two Key Plays of the Night won and ran a close 2nd.

In 11 Key Plays this meet at Turfway? We have gotten 6 winners and 2 seconds. Not bad.

Here’s a few “Spot Plays” at the Fair Grounds before we get to tonight’s action. Hope you enjoy our bonus coverage:

Fair Grounds:

2nd: 5-2-3/9-11/6-8-10…Li’l Tootsie (5) ran very well to be second here on debut in late November. Barn is red hot and the one has returned to work very, very well. Rider is winning with .24% in the last 45 mounts for the barn and this one had some real traffic issues in the inaugural run. Barn wins with .20% in the 2nd out. Looks to be tough here. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.  I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-11 in two smaller units and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller, as well.

3rd: 8-1-5/2/7-4/3-6…Duncan F. Kenner Stakes…Don’t know why jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. is off his mounts today, and that’s a huge story for all of the Steve Asmussen horses, but I still like Archidust (8) in this spot. This 5YO son of Verazzano won here on Dec. 19. Came from off the pace to grab the wire first. In 6 starts at this distance, now has 5 wins and a third. Just seems to be an expert for this kind of race. Born Great (1) won here in an allowance on Jan. 6. Has to step up the game today, but has a versatile style to him. Will need a clean break on the rail. Tricky spot. Just Might (5) ran 2nd to our top pick last time out, and has a couple of really good runs against the likes of Leinster in the past. Will be a tough out too. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

4th: 8-6-7/9/1-2-3-10…Warrant (8) is a first-time starter for the barn of Brad Cox, and this son of Constitution has been training lights out for the inaugural run. Gets a rider who has won with .17% of the last 18 mounts for this barn. Dam of this one has produced 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 Stakes winner. Don’t miss out here at what could be a square price. Blameworthy (6) ran second to a highly-touted winner last time out and now has 2 runner-ups in the first two career starts. Will get played today, but may not be any better than 2nd again. Ottothelegend (7) is a first timer for the barn of Steve Asmussen, and another who has been training very well for this start. Son of Uncle Mo looks primed and ready. Barn wins with .18% on debut, too. Chance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the “all button.” I will double down with the 8 over/under the 6-7-9-1-2-3-10 in two smaller units.

5th: 6-2/14-7-13/1-4/9-10-12…Go Big Green (6) is another from the barn of trainer Tom Amoss. Gets back to the grass today and that should enable this one to be a tough out in this spot. In the first 3 grass races, ran 3rd each time, but closing in each of those. Works are solid and a top grass rider takes the reins again. One to beat. Lijana (2) looked to be a winner before tiring in the career debut at Aqueduct last November. Barn is off to a chilly start this meet, but this daughter of Hard Spun turned in a very nice work here in mid-December and could make a nice run here in this spot. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 14-7-13-1-4-9-10 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-5-1/11/2-10/7-6…Dolder Grand (4) has not raced since November at Churchill Downs. Should have won that day. Just couldn’t get to the wire. Ran a very nice 3rd in the G1 Summer Stakes over the turf at Woodbine back in September, too. Still looking for the MSW win, but the works are good enough to have this one ready to pop now. Gets the Lasix back today, too. Gun Lap (5) is a 3YO son of Runhappy. That’s the bad news. And, that is some serious bloodwork to overcome. But this trainer could have this one ready for a win here. Rarely has one South of Kentucky for the winter. This one being in New Orleans suggests that this one has talent. Look for a nice run. Afwan (1) could spice up the odds here a bit. This one has run twice against tougher than these and was close at the wire. Barn has gone 2-for-2 in the last two weeks. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11 in two smaller units. I will also key the 4-1 over/under the 5-11-2-10-7-6 in two smaller units.

7th: 11/3-8/12-4/9-1-2-5/6-10…Fulsome (11) is a 3YO son of Into Mischief and will get the blinkers for the first time. Barn wins with .24% when adding the shades, and this one has been right there in each of the last two, before hanging late when the running was needed. Gets the barn’s go-to rider back in the irons. Rider has gone 5-2-1 in the last 13 mounts. My first “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then key the 11 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 3-8. Little less with the 12-4. Less with the 9-1-2-5. 

8th: 1-2-9/4-6/7-8-10…Angkor (1) has not been out since last November, but what a start to the career. Won the debut by an easy 4 lengths and came back to nearly win the next time out when stretching out to a route for the first time over a sloppy racetrack. Led all the way to the pay day. Lost at the wire. Has been training well for the return and the trainer does hustle them to get started the right way. Gagetown (2) will stretch out to two turns for the first time for a barn that wins with .27% routing for the initial experience. Has ability and has the right rider and connections. Look out. Stayin’ Out Late (9) won the debut by nearly 8 and then returned to almost win his first try at a route, too. Son of Tapit may need one, but has speed to be dangerous here. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 9-4-6-7-8-10 in two smaller units.

9th: 5-3/2-1-9…Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes…Dalika (5) has the speed to lead this group from the gate to the wire. In 6 starts at this distance, has 2 wins and a second. Win here over this track on Dec. 19. No reason to believe she can lead them around there again. Only true speed. Can she just milk them along? Secret Message (3) ran 3rd to the top pick here in the Blushing K D Stakes last time out, as the beaten favorite. Never able to materialize a real threat in that one. Will make the 2nd start for the new barn and the 2nd start off the layup, too. Barn wins with .20% and .27% of those, respectively. With beaten favorites? Up the percentage to .30%. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box these two sternly in one exacta. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 2-1-9 in two smaller units.

10th: 8-9/4/3-6/2…G3 Louisiana Stakes…Wells Bayou (8) makes his first start since May of 2020, after he was 5th to Nadal in a division of the G1 Arkansas Derby. In 6 career starts, has 3 wins and a 2nd and this will not be the toughest Graded Stakes field he will ever face. If he is ready? Should beat this field. Easily. Impressively. Anything less will be disappointing. Sonneman (9) is a very nice horse and has a nice race under the girth for recency. Was 2nd here to the very nice Maxfield in the Tanacious Stakes on Dec. 19. But? In 4 tries at this distance, has only one win and 3 seconds. Just does not appear that he wants this length. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-9 sternly in one exacta. I will key the 8-9 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed.

11th: 8-1-10/4-5/9…Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes…Spectacular Gem (8) has never been first or second in a race at this distance. But, somehow, this 5YO is my top pick in a Stakes race today? Should throttle back a bit off the speed this time around and the barn wins with .12% in the 2nd start off a layup. In 5 starts here, has 2 wins and a second. Clever rider is having a nice meet. Logical Myth (1) can stalk and pounce. Will be stepping up against these, but has hit the board in each of the last 5 and looks good right now. Rider is super good grass jockey. Sailing Solo (10) is a pure speedster. Will go to the front and stay there as long as he can. In 8 starts at this distance, does have 3 wins and a second. If a speed duel materializes? Game is wide open. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-5-9 in two smaller units.

12th: 9/8-4-1-6/5-7-3…Silverbulletday Stakes…Sun Path (9) has won the last two for trainer Brad Cox by a combined 15 lengths. She has speed. She has talent. She has the pedigree. And, she just may be on the road to this year’s Kentucky Oaks for a man who definitely knows how to win the top 3YO filly race in the world. Did it with Monomoy Girl. Did it again last year with Shedaresthedevil. This homebred daughter of Munnings is owned by Juddmonte Farms, which just lost its’ patriarch and owner. Seems right that this one honors the loss with a big win today. My “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 8-4-1-6 than the rest.

13th: 10-11-1/4-2/9-5-3/7-6-8…G3 Lecomte Stakes…Mandaloun (10) — a 3YO son of Into Mischief and another homebred of Juddmonte Farms — will make the 2021 debut and his run towards the Kentucky Derby today. This one is a perfect 2-for-2 going into this battle and will face tougher than he has faced so far. Is likely to settle and make a run when the real racing begins in the mid- to upper-stretch. Gets a hot jockey. Has been training very well. And, if he is as good as most expect — or hope — he should take care of business here today. Never mind that it is the first start since November. I bet the 10-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-11 over/under the 1-4-2-9-5-3-7 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene