McLean’s Updated Handicapping Statistics at the Fair Grounds

Day Results9-2-4-5
2019 Overall 264264/97-100-125
Win % of Top Pick36.74%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall40.66%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –184 of 26469.70%
Top Selection ITM / FG Nov-Mar 311-44370.20%
Top Selection Win / FG Nov-Mar 170-44338.37%
“Key Horses” @ FG Nov-Mar 99-44-18-1444.44%
“Key Horses” in 2019 71-28-12-1139.44%

It was an unusual day on Monday — President’s Day — at the Fair Grounds. We managed only two winners on the card, and they came in the first two events on the day.


There’s always a but, right?

Our top pick hit the board in all 9 races.


We hit for exactas that returned $5.70, $41.20, $17.80, $2.40, $11.90, $9.30, and $59.50 for each $1 wagered on the day. Our “Return on Investment” in the exactas was $67.80 for each $1 played — after cost.

If you are an exacta player, it was a good day. Right?

Our ROI on straight wagers, though, left a little to be desired. We were a negative $7.10 for each. This is calculated at $2 wagered across the board. So, our net was not a positive thing.

Still, all in all, our win percentage this year — 2019 — is hovering over 36.74%, and our top selection has hit the board 69.70% of the time.

For the Fair Grounds meet, which dates back to November 2018, our top pick has hit the board 70.20% of the time, and our top pick has won 38.37% of the time.

Here’s hoping you have a couple of nice days off, and we will see you on Thursday when we take a whack at that huge Black Gold 5 carryover pool.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene

The horse broke well today,” Gaffalione said. “I had the horse inside, Dunph, going to the lead and then (Gun It) showed a little bit of speed. When I saw they were intent on going I just tried to get him back and got him to relax. He came back to me nicely and settled well down the backside. Got a little keen going into the far turn and wanted to move a little early. But I didn’t want to take too much away from him so I tried to sit as long as I could. He was waiting on horses down the lane but I kept him at task and there was plenty of horse there.”

“Mark (Casse, the trainer) and his team have done a great job,” Gaffalione said. “They’ve had a ton of confidence in this horse the whole way. It’s just an honor to be able to ride the horse. He’s just so professional, trains great and he’s a pleasure to be around.”

Tyler Gaffalione, Rode of War of Will to victory in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds
  • Gene McLean

    Gene McLean

    Gene McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky., and was recognized as one of the state’s best writers, winning the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985. Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets ...

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