McLean’s Updated Handicapping Statistics / Graham Holds 1-Win Lead in Rider Standings at Fair Grounds

Day Results8-3-3-6
2019 Overall 7272/23-24-42
Win % of Top Pick31.94%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall41.20%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –46 of 7263.89%
Top Selection ITM / FG Nov-Mar 173-25168.92%
Top Selection Win / FG Nov-Mar 96-25138.25%
“Key Horses” @ FG Nov-Mar 50-23-12-446.00%
“Key Horses” in 2019 19-7-5-136.84%

On Sunday, we hit for three winners out of the eight races carded down in the “Big Easy,” at the Fair Grounds. And, for the meet, that pushed our win percentage to over 38.25%. In 251 races that we have handicapped for this meet, as well, our top pick has been “In The Money” 68.92% of the time. Not bad numbers.

But we are looking for bigger. And, of course, better.

Check us out later this week when we kick up a little more dust (and, of course, sod) at the Fair Grounds down in the Bayou.

(James Graham holds a 1-win edge in the current Jockey Standings at the Fair Grounds / Photo Courtesy of Keeneland)

(12-29-2018 Midnight Fantasy, with Adam Beschizza aboard, wins the 52nd running of the Louisiana Futurity – Filly Division at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Hodges Photography / Amanda Hodges Weir)

Graham, Beschizza Locked in a “Head Bob” for Tops in Jockey Standings at the Fair Grounds:

It has been a battle all meet, and it continues to be a “head bob” for the top spot in the Jockey Standings at the Fair Grounds this meet. After Sunday’s races were all and done, James Graham had his nose down at the wire and was one win in front of his buddy from the United Kingdom.

And, the numbers are truly scary close.

When Sunday’s races were all in the books and it was time to bourbon up on Bourbon Street, Graham had 34 wins in 205 mounts so far this meet. Beschizza, on the other hand, had 33 wins in 204 rides.

Now, that is what we would like to say is a horse race.

Seven wins off the pace is Mitchell Murrill with 27 trips to the winner’s circle, while Colby Hernandez has 26, Shaun Bridgmohan has 25 and Corey Lanerie has 24. All have a shot to rally between now and the end of the meet in March to make a serious run at the two pacesetters.

Here’s a closer look at the Top 25 riders so far this meet:

1James Graham205344324$1,078,18017%10149%
2Adam Beschizza204331832$856,63016%8341%
3Corey J. Lanerie125241814$842,86119%5645%
4Colby J. Hernandez201263134$802,45013%9145%
5Mitchell Murrill215273033$787,86813%9042%
6Shaun Bridgmohan112251611$785,51522%5246%
7Florent Geroux7616178$549,63721%4154%
8Marcelino Pedroza167182216$518,75011%5634%
9Gabriel Saez123131219$488,42811%4436%
10Joe Bravo6813149$466,54019%3653%
11Ricardo Santana, Jr.6813109$410,98019%3247%
12Ty Kennedy119131511$373,83011%3933%
13Jack Gilligan153101919$367,3557%4831%
14Miguel Mena129121412$355,8609%3829%
15Edgar Morales63974$207,87014%2032%
16Chantal Sutherland10711612$205,20110%2927%
17Sophie Doyle6710610$204,52015%2639%
18Jose Valdivia, Jr.795514$194,3706%2430%
19Aubrie Green1146612$178,4505%2421%
20Declan Carroll83598$166,5306%2227%
21Ezequiel Lara1093910$129,9303%2220%
22Joseph Rocco, Jr.34424$101,87012%1029%
23Channing Hill7210$67,17029%343%
24Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.1100$60,000100%1100%
25Jerome Lermyte3100$46,14033%133%


The horse broke well today,” Gaffalione said. “I had the horse inside, Dunph, going to the lead and then (Gun It) showed a little bit of speed. When I saw they were intent on going I just tried to get him back and got him to relax. He came back to me nicely and settled well down the backside. Got a little keen going into the far turn and wanted to move a little early. But I didn’t want to take too much away from him so I tried to sit as long as I could. He was waiting on horses down the lane but I kept him at task and there was plenty of horse there.”

“Mark (Casse, the trainer) and his team have done a great job,” Gaffalione said. “They’ve had a ton of confidence in this horse the whole way. It’s just an honor to be able to ride the horse. He’s just so professional, trains great and he’s a pleasure to be around.”

Tyler Gaffalione, Rode of War of Will to victory in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds
  • Gene McLean

    Gene McLean

    Gene McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky., and was recognized as one of the state’s best writers, winning the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985. Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets ...

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