McLean’s Updated Handicapping Stats / Churchill Downs’ Jockey Standings

Day Results10/5-2-3
2019 Overall 681681/246-246-333
Win % of Top Pick36.12%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall40.38%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –465 of 68168.28%
Top Selection ITM / CD 65-10462.50%
Top Selection Win / CD 32-10430.77%
“Key Horses” @ CD 18-7-3-238.88%
“Key Horses” in 2019 133-54-26-1540.6
Upset Special of the Day/ CD 5-0-0-00.00%

We had a good Sunday at Churchill Downs. Mother’s Day celebration. Sunny skies. Sorta. And, lots of winners.

Out of the 10 races contested, we had 5 winners and we cashed exactas for $12.70, $15.20, $12.00, $22.20 and $19.60 for each $1 played. Not bad. Not bad at all.

After a slow, slow start to the meet, we are now creeping back to respectability, and our year-long numbers. We are up to 30.77 winners for the current meet, and our “Key Horses” are winning at a 40.60 rate for the year. Of the 18 “Key Plays of the Day” so far this Churchill Downs meet, we have had 7 winners and hit the board on 12 of the 18 races.

Gabriel Saez, Richardo Santana, Jr. Tied with 10 Wins Apiece:

3-23-2019 By My Standards, with Gabriel Saez aboard, pulls to the lead in the 106th running of the Grade II $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Hodges Photography / Amanda Hodges Weir

(Ricardo Santana, Jr. had a huge day on KY Oaks Day / Photo by Holly M. Smith)

The rider colony at Churchill Downs’ current Spring/Summer meet may be as strong and deep as any in its’ recent history. And, that figures to be both fun and competitive all meet long.

So far, that is playing out.

After the first couple of weeks, both Gabriel Saez and Ricardo Santana, Jr. are tied for the lead in the rider standings with 10 wins apiece.

Just a win back in third is James Graham, with 9 trips to the winner’s circle.

Just a win back in fourth are both Corey Lanerie, and Tyler Gaffalione.

It figures to be a close race for the top spot for the remainder of the meet. Here’s a close look at the top riders, so far:

1Flavien Prat12310$2,052,34625%433%
2Irad Ortiz, Jr.23533$1,472,06222%1148%
3Ricardo Santana, Jr.361035$1,442,36128%1850%
4Jose L. Ortiz23416$1,305,63017%1148%
5John R. Velazquez19222$862,85311%632%
6Gabriel Saez411087$707,43524%2561%
7Corey J. Lanerie518127$677,99016%2753%
8Mike E. Smith8120$555,06013%338%
9Julien R. Leparoux44735$496,01816%1534%
10Tyler Gaffalione51883$487,55816%1937%
11Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.48753$451,02315%1531%
12Luis Saez28237$444,6927%1243%
13Miguel Mena46786$440,06215%2146%
14Joel Rosario23122$351,2594%522%
15James Graham42935$332,93521%1740%
16Channing Hill10111$308,01710%330%
17Chris Landeros40455$290,09810%1435%
18Florent Geroux39454$281,00210%1333%
19Shaun Bridgmohan16121$269,7156%425%
20Manuel Franco11102$254,1719%327%
21Javier Castellano18122$224,0366%528%
22Tyler Baze33514$177,58315%1030%
23Adam Beschizza28053$98,9240%829%
24Jack Gilligan24032$96,1070%521%
25Geovanni Franco1010$96,0000%1100%

The horse broke well today,” Gaffalione said. “I had the horse inside, Dunph, going to the lead and then (Gun It) showed a little bit of speed. When I saw they were intent on going I just tried to get him back and got him to relax. He came back to me nicely and settled well down the backside. Got a little keen going into the far turn and wanted to move a little early. But I didn’t want to take too much away from him so I tried to sit as long as I could. He was waiting on horses down the lane but I kept him at task and there was plenty of horse there.”

“Mark (Casse, the trainer) and his team have done a great job,” Gaffalione said. “They’ve had a ton of confidence in this horse the whole way. It’s just an honor to be able to ride the horse. He’s just so professional, trains great and he’s a pleasure to be around.”

Tyler Gaffalione, Rode of War of Will to victory in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds
  • Gene McLean

    Gene McLean

    Gene McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky., and was recognized as one of the state’s best writers, winning the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985. Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets ...

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