McLean’s Updated Handicapping Stats / Leading Riders at the Fair Grounds

Day Results10-6-5-7
2019 Overall 182182/63-73-88
Win % of Top Pick34.62%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall41.03%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –123 of 18267.58%
Top Selection ITM / FG Nov-Mar 250-36169.25%
Top Selection Win / FG Nov-Mar 136-36137.67%
“Key Horses” @ FG Nov-Mar 85-38-18-1044.71%
“Key Horses” in 2019 57-22-12-738.60%

We had a super Saturday — just a day before “Super Bowl Sunday.”

In 10 races we handicapped at the Fair Grounds, we had 6 winners which returned $10, $8.90, $17.40, $17, $13.20, and $6.60 for each $2 played across the board. In addition, we hit for exactas that returned $4.60, $6.50, $21.80, $7.80, $20.70, $20.30 and $19.40 for each $1 played.

Not a bad day.

Not bad, at all.

Our top selection has now hit the board on 69.25% of the time since we started handicapping the Fair Grounds meet back in November. That spans 361 races to date.

Graham Holds Onto 3-Win Lead in Fair Grounds Jockey Standings:

(James Graham / Photo Courtesy of Keeneland)

James Graham has been grinding it out down at the current Fair Grounds meet in New Orleans. Every week. Every day. Every race.

And, the work is paying off. Handsomely.

After Saturday’s races were done, Graham continues to hold onto a slim edge over fellow transport rider Adam Beschizza. To date, Graham has 273 rides at the meet, and Beschizza has 267. To date, Graham has 47 wins and Beschizza has 44. To date, it is a race for the rider’s title that is likely to continue to the end of the meet in March.

Here’s a closer look at the Top 25:

1James Graham273475131$1,356,63017%12947%
2Adam Beschizza267442546$1,161,05016%11543%
3Colby J. Hernandez267364346$1,088,45013%12547%
4Corey J. Lanerie163282319$1,019,81117%7043%
5Shaun Bridgmohan151351915$1,009,22523%6946%
6Mitchell Murrill282333643$1,005,40012%11240%
7Florent Geroux130262715$961,10520%6852%
8Marcelino Pedroza234243023$690,74010%7733%
9Gabriel Saez169182122$661,64811%6136%
10Ricardo Santana, Jr.85161610$535,66019%4249%
11Miguel Mena181202117$534,46011%5832%
12Joe Bravo7314149$496,74019%3751%
13Jack Gilligan199162226$491,2258%6432%
14Ty Kennedy158162113$476,17010%5032%
15Chantal Sutherland14415918$294,06110%4229%
16Sophie Doyle88121013$276,25014%3540%
17Declan Carroll11971411$226,5806%3227%
18Joseph Rocco, Jr.59547$225,9408%1627%
19Aubrie Green15281014$223,4705%3221%
20Edgar Morales76975$218,46012%2128%
21Jose Valdivia, Jr.795514$194,3706%2430%
22Tyler Gaffalione4211$177,10050%4100%
23Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.8301$174,86038%450%
24Ezequiel Lara1103910$130,5303%2220%
25Channing Hill10211$93,17020%440%

(Stats Courtesy of Equibase)

The horse broke well today,” Gaffalione said. “I had the horse inside, Dunph, going to the lead and then (Gun It) showed a little bit of speed. When I saw they were intent on going I just tried to get him back and got him to relax. He came back to me nicely and settled well down the backside. Got a little keen going into the far turn and wanted to move a little early. But I didn’t want to take too much away from him so I tried to sit as long as I could. He was waiting on horses down the lane but I kept him at task and there was plenty of horse there.”

“Mark (Casse, the trainer) and his team have done a great job,” Gaffalione said. “They’ve had a ton of confidence in this horse the whole way. It’s just an honor to be able to ride the horse. He’s just so professional, trains great and he’s a pleasure to be around.”

Tyler Gaffalione, Rode of War of Will to victory in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds
  • Gene McLean

    Gene McLean

    Gene McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky., and was recognized as one of the state’s best writers, winning the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985. Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets ...

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