(The beauty of KY Lake, and the site of our “newly redecorated” and “now permanent” office)
||10 / 6-1-7
|2022 Overall — 1629
||1629 / 556-602-771
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1049-1629
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KY Downs 43-73
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KY Downs 22-73
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ KY Downs 6/2-2-1
||33.33% Win / 83.33% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 303-455
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 165-455
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 63/26-9-6
||41.27% Win / 65.08% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 266/ 107-56-24
||40.23% Win / 70.31%
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1
||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 44/9-7-5
||20.45% Win / 47.73% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ card on Sept. 15)
We are back. Somewhat.
We are in the process of moving my office from Louisville to the “Lake House” in little, New Concord, KY. Don’t ask me where “Old” Concord is. No idea. Unless it is under water from KY Lake. But the logistical challenges of this move have been rather significant. And, unfortunately, our picks for both Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs did not get posted.
So very sorry. But we are back, working under “reconfiguration” conditions. But, most of all, “working.” To all of you who reached out and asked if we are “OK,” I truly appreciate the concern and thoughts. We are “OK.” And, we hope this move will make us more than “OK” in the near future. You all don’t know how much you mean to me.
Now…let’s pick a few winners…and pay for that UHaul.
Here’s our looks for this Sunday afternoon at the beautiful Churchill Downs’ “big oval” in Louisville:
1st: 7-1/2/3-5-6/4/8…Contessina (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “big oval” on this Sunday “Funday.” This 3YO daughter of KY Derby winner California Chrome drops into MCL ranks, again, and this one ran well at this level in the career debut. Winner of that first race came right back to win the next out, too. Trainer wins with .22% when going MSW to the MCL ranks. Threat. Marina’s Gold (1) drops in class for this one, too, and the barn wins with .32% when making this move for the first time. Rider has won with .21% of the last 47 mounts for this barn. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-1 in the exactas. I will key the 7-1 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-7/8/5-1/2/6-4…Frigid Lady (3) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time here and the barn wins with .22% of the last 297 to do that for the first time. Gets a huge rider switch here to the Commonwealth’s top rider and this jockey is due, too. Dam of this one is Stakes-placed and this one should be ready with the reduction in class. She’ll Never Know (7) is a daughter of Ghostzapper and should be a prime target in the claim box here. Barn wins with .27% when dropping in class and this one ran well over the dirt here to begin the career. A return to the main track should help. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-7 in the exactas. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-3/6-5/2-1…Tonal Impact (4) gets the nod here. This 4YO goes for the very hot barn of Mike Maker, who tore up the winner’s circle at KY Downs. Drops in class here and gets a rider who has won with .31% of the last 13 mounts for the barn operation. Deep, deep closer will need racing luck and if there is a speed bias? Take note. Mr Creed (3) is another deep closer and will need some room in the late going. Gets the services of Tyler Gaffalione and that should help here. Been off since December and will race for the first time as a gelding. Barn can win off the vacation. I bet the 4-3 across the board — both — and then box these two in the exactas.
4th: 6-9/(1A)-8-7/1/10-2/5-11-12/3-4…Easy Big Boy (6) could help boost the barn’s day here. This sone of Cloud Computing drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and picks up the best rider on the grounds. This one ran 2nd — although well beaten — to the very talented Damon’s Mound just three starts ago. Ran no good at Ellis Park, but could return to some glory here. Chance. Gold Luck (9) ran a good one on the turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis to start the career. Moves to the dirt here and the barn wins with .28% when dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Like this rider, who is off to a super start here this meet. I bet the 6-9 across the board — both — and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 1A-8-7 in two smaller units.
5th: 4-3/5-2/6-1…I Cross My Heart (4) goes for the under-rated barn of trainer Brian Lynch, who is winning at a very solid .18% this year with the first 157 starters. This one is making the 2nd start off a layoff and the barn wins with a very nice .23% of those kind. This one can finish off the stretch run and gets a rider who suits. Look out. Cant be Touched (3) won by 10 lengths last time out. Wow. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 lifetime and figures here in a big way, too. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 5-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 6/1-8-10/9/7/3/2-4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Maasai Warrior (6). This 3YO son of Hard Spun goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who is off to a solid start his meet. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with a whopping .31% of the last 431 to do that. Has been off since March, but works are spectacular. Looks primed. I go. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 1-8-10-9-7-3 in the exactas. More with the 1-8-10 than the rest.
7th: 11-9-12/(13)/3-5-7/(14)-(15)-(16)/6-1-2…Fee (11) is the slight edge here in a well-balanced field that could feature an upset or two. This 2YO daughter of Into Mischief ran a solid 3rd over the mud at Ellis Park on debut. May have not liked that surface and the “Place” horse did come right back to win the next out, too. Rider fits this one and should improve this time around. Barn wins with .21% on second tries. Saenz (9) is a first timer for Brad Cox, who wins with .18% of those kind. Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and the works are solid. Chance. Pretty Mischievous (12) is a home-bred for Godolphin Stables and gets a top rider for this debut effort. Barn wins with .11% on first efforts. Has talent. It appears. I bert the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 13 if she draws in from the AE List.
8th: 10/2-6-8/3-9/5/1-4-7…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Mount Athos (10). This 4Yo son of Sky Mesa drops a rung in the claiming game after a 2nd at Saratoga. Has a 2nd and a 3rd here in 6 previous tries, but the drop in class should benefit this stalker — who can flash some speed. Picks up a rider who rode just two races ago. I like. I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 2-6-8-3-9-5 in the exactas. More with the 2-6-8 than the rest.
9th: 11-8/2-5-(14)/7-6-9/10-3-12/(13)-(15)…Ice Orchid (11) picks up my top billing here. This 3YO daughter of Super Saver has never missed the board in 4 lifetime starts and ran 2nd to eventual KY Oaks winner Secret Oath at Oaklawn. Has been off since late February and that will be a challenge, but the talent is obvious and this one looks poised off a series of nice works. My bet. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the 11-8 in the exactas. I will key the 11 over/under the 8-2-5-14-7 in two smaller units.
1oth: 5-11-3/2-4/1-10/8…Lysander (5) gets the call in the day’s finale. This 3Yo son of Uncle Mo will make the debut here and he dam of this one has produced 10 winners from 10 starters — with 2 Stakes winners. Nice. Very nice. Has a series of nice works. Threat. Higginson (11) is a first timer from the Cox barn. Must be considered. But needs to break in a straight line. Shipman (3) has the experience edge and does have some nice races over the last 3 outings. Chance. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene