Updated With Comments: McLean’s Selections for Keeneland on Saturday, Oct. 4 — G1 Breeders’ Futurity Day

(Stats to be updated with this week’s activities)

Here’s our looks at the amazing card pieced together for Keeneland’s first Saturday of the annual October Meet. There are five Graded Stakes on the day, with three G1s.

Let’s get rolling:

1st: 1-4/6-7//3-5-2…Quick to Charm (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Saturday afternoon in the middle of God’s Country. Can’t go wrong with the #1 in the 1st race, right? Well, maybe. But this 3YO filly has hit the board in 4 of the first 5 outings has run-ability. Does back up in every race when approaching the wire and that is a serious no-no for me. Gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. up and over the last two weeks, he has gone 2 for 3. Serious threat, but some holes here, too. Get Back Loretta (4) gets Lasix for the first time and will try to dirt for the first time, too. Has worked great of late and should be better here than the initial offering. Not the toughest field here. Chance. The horse to watch here may be Merry Madison (6). This one ran a huge one at Horseshoe Indy two back and the race at KY Downs was not bad, either. Gets back to dirt here for a trainer who knows how to find the winner’s circle. I’m using this one. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then boxing the 1-4-6 in the exactas. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 4-7 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-12-1/6-9-11/3…Commandment (2) is the #2 in the 2nd race. Can’t go wrong there, either, right? Well, maybe. This 2YO son of Into Mischief will get the first whack at real racing here for a barn that wins with .23% on debut. Gets a hot rider, who has won with .25% of the last 36 for this barn operation. Works are spot on. Look out here. Local Knowledge (12) is another firster here and comes shipping in from New York for a HOF trainer. Solid works and looks the part. Connections paid $625,000 for a son of Yaupon. Must be something to like here. Mesquite (1) could be a nice price and has been working lights out for a sharp trainer. I use, too. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

3rd: 6-7-5/3//4…Oscar’s Hope (6) is a 2YO son of Twirling Candy and ships in from Saratoga for a top training operation. Has run two good ones to start the career at Saratoga and has the speed to be very dangerous over a speed-favoring track. Take note. Outfielder (7) is the 4-5 ML favorite and goes for a top 2YO trainer in Wesley Ward. Won one the grass at Churchill Downs back in May by a whopping 61/4 lengths. Went to France in August and nearly won a GR1 Stakes. Back here now. Too much travel for a 2YO? Maybe. Papa Ken (5) has run against some good ones and could be putting together a Breeders’ Cup resume. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key those 3 over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

4th: (14)-10-12/6-4-5-7/2/3-9-(13)-(15)/8…Maui Strong (14) could be a handful here if the son of Kitten’s Joy can draw into the race. This is a 11/16-mile turf event and the trainer is not known for being a stellar grass conditioner. But this one has hit the board in 6 of the first 10 outings and has speed enough to be dangerous. Has run in four Graded Stakes so far. Has a 3rd and a 4th. Has run in two other non-Graded Stakes. Has a 2nd and a 3rd. Credentials if in. Tenacious Leader (10) gets Lasix for the first time and this barn wins with .21% of the last 234 to get the anti-bleeder med. Has not run this year, but training forwardly for a top trainer. Ran in the Breeders’ Cup last year. Has pedigree to be very tough. Favorable Scenario (12) goes for the U.S.’s best turf trainer, who lacks social skills, but not professional ones. Won the last time out, coming off a 21/2 year layoff. Now, that’s some kind of horse. I use. I bet the 14 across the board, if in. If not, I bet both the 10-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I also key the 10-12 over/under the 6-4-5-7-2 in two smaller units. 

5th: 6-5-7/4-8/3-1…Top Into This (6) has won two in a row and has never missed the board in 7 lifetime tries for a HOF trainer and an owner who used to race the great Alysheba. Son of Tapit has the makings of being a really good one. Addition of Lasix five starts ago has started to kick in for this one. My pick. Rookie Card (5) is a speedster who has already won twice at this 7-furlong distance. Interesting choice of riders here, but he has experience on this one. Echo Again (7) is the ML favorite and goes for a hot trainer. Picks up Irad to ride this time around the oval. Look out. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on this win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the 6 over/under the 5-7-4-8-3-1 in two smaller units. 

6th: 7-8-5/1/4-9/3-2…G2 Woodford Stakes…The first of five Stakes in a row and three of them are G1s. This is the 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod, and I go with a bit of a longshot and Governor Sam (7), who is 6-1 in the ML set by the folks at Brisnet.com. This 3YO has hit the board in 8 of 9 at this distance and has the final kick to be seriously dangerous. I like this one. A lot. Khaadem (8) ships in from across the pond and will make his 2nd start here in the U.S. This one is a 9YO gelding and has the experience edge. Has been out 41 times. But? Has hit the board in only 3 of 10 (all wins) at this specialty distance. Doncho (5) is my sentimental pick of the day. This 4YO gelding has won two in a row for one of the best horse people I have ever known. Michelle Lovell is amazing. Amazing. And, this horse is another example. Set the world record for 5.5 furlongs at Ellis Park two starts ago and ran off to a win in Virginia in the last. Two for three at this distance now. Love this one. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 8-1-4-9 in two smaller units. 

7th: 5-2/4-7-3/1-6…G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes…This is a 6-furlong sprint for the fillies and mares and I line up with Vahva (5). This 5YO Gun Runner mare has raced here three times already. Has a win and two seconds on the resume. Comes in here as a beaten, odds-on favorite and the trainer wins with 38% when returning as a defeated fan’s choice. Look out here. Speed does travel. Very well here. Long Neck Paula (2) is another trained by Wesley Ward. The man can train for this distance and surface. One of his specialties, too. This filly has run here twice before and has a win and a runner-up. Filly has raced 6 times at the distance and has gone 2-1-1. Big shot. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 5-2 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 4-7-3-1 in two smaller units. 

8th: 5-9-10/7/(13)-(14)-1-8-4/2-6…G1 First Lady Stakes…Dynamic Pricing (5) comes from the barn of Chad Brown and comes into this spot with 3 wins in the last 4 outings. Has hit the board in 9 of 11 over the sod with this 4YO Irish-bred filly. Regular rider ships in, as well. Dangerous. Segesta (9) is another from the Brown barn. This one is a daughter of the highly-successful and underrated sire Ghostzapper. This gal has two super runs in a row and has a win in only previous try here, too. Can’t dismiss this one. Ozara (10) has won two in a row and three of the last four. Has hit the board in 11 of 13 grass starts and goes for a top trainer, who is the son of a top, top, top trainer, who recently passed. Will stalk. Can pounce. Is a must-use for me. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the tip 3 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-4/1-2-5/7-3…G1 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes…This is one of the best 2YO Stakes in the entire free world. I go with the prohibitive favorite — Ted Noffey (6). This one is named for the man who runs Spendthrift Farm — Ned Toffey. Both the GM and the horse are amazingly successful. The horse has won both of his starts to date, and did so in impressive fashion. Broke the MSW at Saratoga by 11/2 and came back to win the G1 Hopeful by nearly 9 lengths. Credentials out the wazoo. Spice Runner (4) is a son of Gun Runner and the horse I picked in the G3 Iroquois Stakes back in mid-September. He won that won and now has a 2-1-0 record in the first four outings. This guy is 12-1 in the ML, and I love him, if he can hold onto some of those odds. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 6-4 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 1-2-5-7-3 in two smaller units. 

10th: 4-8-10/5-1-12/7-6-3/9-2-11…G1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes…Diego Velazquez (4) ships in from France to run in this G1 American event, which will be over the green, green grass of home. This 4YO son of the great Frankel has won two in a row and four of the last 5. This trainer has won with .38% of the last 8 to be away from the starting gate in 46 to 90 days. This guy has other run since Aug. 17. Interesting. Watch out, too. Program Trading (8) may be the one to give our top pick a run. This Brit-bred son of Lope De Vega has been first or second in 7 of 8 lifetime tries and has over $1.3 million in earnings already. Classic stalker and pouncer. Gets Flavien Prat again for trainer Chad Brown. Dangerous duo. Brilliant Berti (10) is 8-1 in the ML and a must-use for me. Has run this distance 6 times in the career. Has 4 wins and a second. Came with a late run in the last out and just ran out of real estate. Moving the best late in that one. I bet the 4-10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-1 in two smaller units.

11th: 8-2-6/7-11/1-5-10…Stormforged (8) is another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who could have a huge day today. This son of Vekoma nearly pulled off the win in the debut. Rough start and route, but running at the end. Should win this one on the rebound. Heartily (2) is another from the barn of Wesley Ward. This 2YO is owned by the same peeps who had the ill-fated Barbaro. Will make the first start here, but lots to like in the a.m. drills. Boonesboro (6) was well-bet in the debut and now gets the dirt. Should relish this spot and be well prepared. Sharp work on Sept. 26. Looks poised. I bet the 8-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7-11 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene