Updated With Comments: McLean’s Selections for Keeneland’s Opening Day — Friday, Oct. 3

(Stats to be updated with this week’s activities)

Here’s our looks at the Opening Day card at Keeneland this coming Friday. Three Graded Stakes will be offered up, including the G1 Alcibiades Stakes. Come along and play. It will be fun, per usual.

1st: 4-7/2-6//3-5-1…Indy Label (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter to this October race meeting. The 4YO Tonalist filly comes in off a terrible run at Kentucky Downs, and over the hills and dales. That was the second try over the sod and neither of those have gone very well. Back to the dirt today and the barn wins with .11% when making this surface switch. Gets Luis Saez up and he was up for a nice 3rd on this one at Saratoga just two back. Fits here better and should benefit. Nerazurri (7) is the ML second choice, according to my good friends at Brisnet.com. This one has ran 9 times and has hit the board in 6. Ran in a G3 Stakes last time out at Gulfstream Park and should be a tough out here if she hold out close to the front. I bet the 7 across the — take note — and then box the 4-7 in the exactas. I key the 4-7 over/under the 2-6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 9-8/5-2/11-1/3-4…Fame Chaser (9) is a 2YO gelding who was bred and is still owned by trainer Wesley Ward, who does extremely well on his home court. Is winning at a .23% rate this year, but click that up to .47% when switching from the turf to the dirt — which this gelding is doing here. That’s over the last 60 starters to do that for this barn. Gets a rider who this barn loves. Look out here. Perfect Audible (8) ran much better when moving to the dirt last time out. Got the blinkers then, too, and should run better this time around. A threat. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 9-8 in the exactas. I key the 9-8 over/under the 5-2-11 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 5-8-1/6-(13)/10-4/(14)-2…Trust Account (5) is a 2YO filly but the great Into Mischief and this one snared $1.5 million to purchase at the 2024 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has run once before on the grass at Ellis Park. Even trip that day after breaking out at the start. Top rider gets a routine mount here and this one should be a much better educated today. Menkaure (8) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This daughter of City of Light ran huge when getting moved to the grass last time out at KY Downs. Gets a HOF rider up for this trip and should run much better than the 12-1 ML odds posted. Trainer is winning at a .25% clip with the first 133 starters this year. Does well with grass horses, too. Look out here. Turner’s Charm (1) could be another one to spice up the odds rack. This one ran huge last time out at KY Downs, just missing at the wire. Barn wins with .16% when routing for the first time and picks up Frankie Dettori on the grass here. Chance. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 5-8 over/under the 1-6-13-10-4 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1-7/5-4-6-8/9…Kingsolver (1) gets back to allowance company here after trying the Stakes company at Ellis Park last time out. Ran a huge 2nd in that one, and now gets one of the best riders in the world here in Flavien Prat. Trainer is top notch and this one should be a tough out from the rail. Has the speed to go. Donna Romano (7) is the ML favorite and is heavily considered after breaking the MSW at Saratoga in the career debut. Brad Cox teams up with Irad Ortiz, Jr. here and they have won with .25% of the last 36 tries together. Rider is on fire. Has gone 13-4-3 in the last 42. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 1-7 in the exactas sternly. I key the 1-7 over/under the 5-4-6-8 in two smaller units.

5th: 1-6/5-10-7/2-3…I go back to the well & the No. 1 here and saddle up with Morlock (1). This could be a nice pay day. Listed at 6-1 in the ML, but this one has hit the board in 7 of 8 lifetime tries. Has been the post time favorite three times and has never found the key to the winner’s circle. Yet. I’m going to give him another try here. Divine Justice (6) comes from the Brad Cox barn and is the ML favorite. Ran a tiring second on debut, but returns here as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .30% of the last 406 to do that. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 1-6 in the exactas. I key the 1-6 over/under the 5-10-7 in two smaller units.

6th: (14)-12/6-2/9-5-11…This is a 1 mile turf allowance for the older mares and I go with Cliffs (14), if she can draw in from the AE List for trainer Cherie DeVaux. Barn wins with .16% of the last 604 to start on the sod and this one really finished the Saratoga meet on a hot streak. Won the MSW there and came right back to nearly win the first allowance effort. Gets a top rider again here and should be the one to beat, if she can make the starting gate. If not? I go to Modern Sound (12). This one got beat a nose at KY Downs and picks up Prat in the irons. Will be coming late, late, late. So never give up. Never. Never. Never. I bet the 14 across the board and double down on the win wager. If she gets in. If not, I bet the 12 across the board. I will key the 14-12 over/under the 6-2-9-5-11 in the exactas.

7th: 4-5/3-6-2/1…G2 Phoenix Stakes…I may be a bit prejudiced, but this sprint is not even close to the caliber of the field in the non-Graded Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes just held at Churchill Downs. Not even close. Still, I will go with World Record (4), if the connections to stay in this event rather than a possible run over the sod on Saturday. This one has never been on the grass, but does have a win here and just ran 3rd in the G1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar. Has speed to burn and this is a speed-favoring track. Always has been. Always will be. Nakatomi (5) is now 6 years old and is still searching for the first win of this year. But does have a 2nd and a 3rd in 3 starts. Last two, he wasn’t close at the wire. Still, the old man has class and has won over $1.7 million in the career. Got to respect that. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. Should be the 4 here, if they decide to go in this spot. 

8th: 12-4/5-2-8/9-10-(13)-(14)/3…G2 Jessamine Stakes…This is a Stakes event for the 2YO fillies on the sod, and I go outside to line up with Time to Dream (12). This gal is by Not This Time and has run two superb races in her young career. Trainer has shipped some potential stars to KY for the meet and this is definitely one to watch. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up May be time to watch and be amazed. Aggressive Lime (4) is 8-1 in the ML and may just have a chance, though. This one ran off to win by 4 at KY Downs in the career debut and now picks up Flavien Prat in the irons. I can’t dismiss. I bet the 4 — take note — across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 12-4 in the exactas. I key the 12-4 over/under the 5-2-8-9 in two smaller units. 

9th: 3/1-4-2/5//6…G1 Alcibiades Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with another one of Todd Pletcher’s newest barn heroes — Tommy Jo (3). This one is 2-5 in the ML. That is 2 to 5. Wow. If this homebred daughter of Into Mischief can slide up the odds barn a bit and get to 4-5? I’m in. If not? Then I’m not. I bet the 3 to win and then key the 3 over the 1-4-2-5 and under the “all button.” 

10th: 10-4/6-7-(14)/1-2/5-8…The finale is a 11/16-mile MSW event over the deep, rich grass and I go with Market Chill (10). This one is trained by Chad Brown — who is not much of a person, but is a helluva trainer of grass horses. This one lost the last time out as the post time favorite and the barn wins with .29% of the last 286 to do that. Gets Prat up here, too. Big threat. Beach Ballad (4) could be a mild surprise. Ran in the money in 3 of the first 4 outings. Was coming very late last time out after setting the fractions in the race before. That’s what “Pittsburgh Phil” called the “Z Pattern.” And, he called that pattern a major betting tip. I’m in with Phil. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 10-4 in the exactas sternly. I key the 10-4 over/under the 6-7-14-1-2 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene