McLean’s Selections for Turfway Park on G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Day — With Comments

(Stats to be updated with this week’s results)

We have reached “The Day” at Turfway Park.

We have reached G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Day.

The Day with the Steaks roll out, and the man who sponsors the Day wears the crazy sports coat. And, The Day when some of the top 3 year olds in the country — with the connections dreaming of grandeur of the upcoming and fast approaching Kentucky Derby — are still dancing in their heads and wallets.

Here’s our looks, and we will be on hand today to join in the racing celebration. Come see us. Love to chat. First post is 12:45 p.m. ET

1st: 4-3-6/10-9/11-5…Frost Mountain (4) has run two races here this winter/spring and has been right there at the wire in each. Today looks like graduation day for the 4YO gelded soon of Frosted. Barn has been chilly here all winter, but wins with .22% when going from two sprints into a route. Top notch rider sticks here. The pick. Tiz Wicked Strong (3) has run two 2nds in a row here, too, but has had 7 chances to break the MSW. Still waiting. Barn wins with .14% of the last 14 to return as a beaten favorite. Zverev (6) may add some value here. Ran a real good one over the sod at the Fair Grounds last out. Will try Tapeta for the first time, but barn operator knows what she is doing. Top rider takes the reins for the first time. Watch out here. Big shot. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 3-10-9 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 6-2-5/3-8/4/12-1-7-9-(14)…Ain’t No Other (6) gets the nod here. This 3YO daughter of Constitution will make the career debut for a trainer winning .21% here this meet and wins with .13% when debuting in the MSW ranks. Big work at KEE on March 8. Homebred has the look here. Sabatini (2) will make the first start, too. Dam of this one has a winner from 1 starter. Barn wins with .25% of the last 73 to make the first start. Don’t Look Back (5) could add some pop to the odds here. List at 10-1 in the ML. This first timer has been training very well here and the dam of this one has 3 winners from 4 starters. Chance. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-8-4 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 6-10-7/3-4-(13)/8-5/2-12…Lebion (6) didn’t fire last out, but gets the drop back to the same level he was picked up at two starts ago. Ran a solid 3rd in that one. Has run here 10 times with a 3-1-2 mark. Nice. Unload (10) is 6-1 in the ML and has he look of a serious kind of horse developing here. The 4YO son of Gun Runner broke the MSW last time out by over 4, but that was last June at Ellis Park. Long time  between sips. But gets Lanfranco Dettori up and has been training well over this track. Upset alert here. Missionaries (7) is another long shot possible. This one broke the MSW last time out over the sod at the Fair Grounds. Has some talent. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-4 in two smaller units. 

4th: 10-2-5/1-7-8-13/6/9-(14)…Trouble’s Roaring (10) is another Team Asmussen-Dettori hookup and this one looks like he will be a tough out in this spot. Has run 2 nice 2nds in row here, and may snap the MSW here. Look out. Term (2) is 12-1 in the ML and the young and upcoming trainer is very good. Very. Good. Look out. Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter. Green Light (5) could upset the apple cart here, too. Dam has a winner from 1 starter and has the right pedigree to excel here, as well. Look out. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 5-1-7-8-13 in two smaller units. 

5th: 8-2-7/5-4-11/3/6…Hay Stack (8) has misfired in the last two, and will make the AW debut here. But the trainer is solid and this one fits in this company a lot better, IMO. Solid pedigree should fit here. Strong Odor (2) is one of the best named horses. Ever. Has run here 9 times before with a 2-1-2 mark. Look out here with a HOFer in the saddle. Tituba (7)is another from the barn of Mike Maker — who has been very under-whelming here this meet. Has won just 5 of 102 starts. Equates to 5% winners. Ugh. I bet the 8-2 across and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 7-5-4-11-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 7-3-6/5-(14)/2-11/4-8-(13)…Asmodeus (7) goes for a top trainer here, who has won with .22% of 65 starts so far this meet. Nearly won each of the last two outs here, as well. Like the chances here. Life At Sea (3) has won only 1 race and gives up a ton in experience here. But this 4YO son of West Coast may have the most talent. I use. Presider (6) is another with just a single win in the career, but has two 3rds in a row coming in here. In 4 trips here? Has a 1-1-2 mark. Chance. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 6-5-14-2-11 in two smaller units. 

7th: 7-10-8/5-9-6/4…Animal Kingdom Stakes…The first of six Stakes races today and this one is worth $250,000. I go with Valentine Candy (7). This 3YO son of Justify has won 3 in a row and has been favored in all three. Has great stalking speed and picks up a world-class rider here. Look out for this one to impress. Shards (10) ran 5th in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last Fall at Santa Anita. But was beaten just 21/4 lengths that day. Impressive. has hit board in 4 of 5 and should convert to this surface nicely. Vote No (8) ran huge here two starts ago. Didn’t take to the longer distance last time out and returns to sprinting here. Look out. My bet. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win bet. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. And, I will key the 8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed above.

8th: 5-2-12/8-9-7-6/10-11//4…Rushaway Stakes…This Stakes is worth $250,000, as well, and is a good one, to be sure. I go with a nice price here and Twirling Point (5). This one is 6-1 in the ML and won at Santa Anita last time out over the sod. Barn wins with .19% of the last 48 to convert from grass to AW. Look out here. Does have a 2nd in a previous try over this surface. I like the 5. A lot. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will also key the 5 over/under the 2-12-8-9-7-6-10 in two smaller units. 

9th: 2-9-5/6/7-3/4-10…Chop Chop (2) has run three times here and has won twice with a second. That is the good news for this high-quality closer. The bad news is that she has to try and beat her roommate — Botanical (9). This 4YO daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has run here 5 times. Won all 5. These two are all class. I bet  the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 9-5-6-7-3 in two more smaller units.

10th: 3-1/5-12-2-8-10/9//11…Wolfie’s Dynaghost (3) has won both times he has run here and is coming off a victory here on Dec. 16. Talented runner is close to $900,000 in purses. But he is one dimensional — he is a speed freak. And, there is other speed in here. This will be a serious test. But he may be up to it. Surly Furious (1) could be the class of the closers and stalkers. Has run here four times, too, and has a 2-1-1 mark. Will give a shot. I bet the 1 across and then box the 3-1 in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 5-12-2-8-10 in two smaller units. 

11th: 1/2-4-8-9/6/5/3-7…Bourbonette Oaks…This is a major prep for the Kentucky Oaks and I go with my first “Key Play of the Day” here, too, in Alpine Princess (1). This gal has run 6 times with 3 wins and is coming off a subpar effort in the G2 Rachel Alexandra last time out. Look for this one to fare better here on the front. Top rider will milk the best out of this one. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 2-4-8-9 than the rest. 

12th: 8-5-10/4-2-6/9-(14)/1-3…G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks…This Stakes has rapidly become one of the top preps for the Kentucky Derby and this year could be no different. Top field. Top connections. Top riders. Normally, that equals a top race. I go with an upset here and fire all cylinders on Otello (8). This 3YO son of Curlin is very well bred. Maybe the best classic pedigree in the field. And, is coming off a 3rd to Hades and Domestic Product in the G3 Holy Bull. Bumped at the start of that one and was wide. Look for a much better effort here. Agate Road (5) has run two nice 2nds in major Stakes this year and could come from well off the pace here to put them all away. Top pedigree for the Todd Pletcher team. Endlessly (10) is the favorite and will be heavily bet. I think he is very vulnerable. Winners of the El Camino Real Derby have not run well here in the past. Another? I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 10-4-2-6-9-14- in two more units. 

13th: 11-(14)/3-1-5-12/6/2-7-9/4…The finale is a MSW event at the sprint distance of 6 furlongs and I line up with the outside horse, Whiskey Decision (11). Top trainer sends this one out for the 2nd time and the daughter of Into Mischief looks like the standout here. I bet the 11 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 11 over/under the 14-3-1-5-12-6-2 in the exactas. More with the 14-3-1-5-12 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene