Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Ellis Park on Sunday, Aug. 11 — Ellis Park Derby Day & Much More

(Stats need to be updated with last week’s results)

Here’s our looks at Ellis Park Derby Day — which will feature 6 Stakes events on the card. What a day has been lined up by the team at Ellis. Remarkable, really. Really remarkable.

1st: 4-8/7/1-10-(11)//2-5-6…Brie’s in Town (4) is a 2YO son of Speightstown and this one gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Ole Pea Patch” that is now the “Soon-to-be Infield Lake.” This one gets the blinkers off after two straight tries and the run over the sod last time out was a near-win. Has speed to burn and may not get caught this time around. Although? Barn is 0-for-10 in the second try over sod. Hmm. Art Fair (8) ran over the grass here last time out and was well-beaten while tiring at the mile. Cuts back here and the barn does win with .25% when returning as a beaten favorite. Look out here. I bet the 8 — take note — across the board and then box the 4-8 in the exactas. Sternly. I key the 4-8 over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 4-7-8/5/3/6…Our Shenanigan (4) is a first timer from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .23% clip here this summer. That’s 2% points less than the yearly average. Wow. Shows how tough this Ellis Park meet is and has been. But? Wins with .22% on first ask and the rider is red hot, winning with .17% for this barn over the last 29. Look out. Liam in the Dust (7) is a first timer for a barn that wins with .13% when running the debut effort. Gets a top rider and this one comes from a dam who has 3 starters and a Stakes winner from the first 3 foals. Sharp works at KEE. Impulse Buy (8) is another from the Brisset barn and the dam of this one has 4 winners from 5 starters. Sharp works for this one, too. Breeding here. Top notch. I bet the 8 — take note — to win/place/show and then box these 3 solidly in the exactas. Solidly. 

3rd: 9-12-2/8-5-3/10-11-(15)/7…Feeling Beachy (9) is my “Upset Play of the Day.” This one is listed at 12-1 in the ML, and could lead them all home in first. Came from far back to miss the opener last year and then was a game 3rd here on July 5. Gets the grass for the fist time and this one is bred for it. Love the rider switch here and this one may cruise. Just the Sky (12) has hit the board in the last three and surely will find a way to get up at the wire soon. Top rider up. Barn is winless this meet. Really? Luz Divine (2) picks up Luis Saez to ride again after the debacle at Churchill Downs in June. Ran super in the three last year. Toss the last. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 12-2-8-5-3 in two smaller units. 

4th: 5/1-8/(13)/11/3-10/2-4-12…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Hedwig (5). This 3YO son of Maclean’s Music drops in class after a Stakes battle at Santa Anita the last time out. Gets Lasix for the first time and worked a sharp half mile on Aug. 1. Speedster may not stop here. I bet the 5 — at a whopping 10-1 in the ML — across the board and then double / triple down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the 1-8-13-11-3-10 in the exactas. More with the 1-8 than the rest. 

5th: 6-2-8/3-10/9-11-12/4-5-7…R.A. “Cowboy” Jones Stakes…The first of six straight Stakes events kicks off here in an event made for the bettors. I go with the returning Saudi Crown (6), who is the ML favorite. But the 4YO colt — who has won nearly $3 million for trainer Brad Cox, does not have to win this one, either. Mr. Wireless (2) has hit the board in 15 of 20 lifetime tries and nearly pulled the win last time out. Squeezed at the start of the G1 before that and lost all chance. Injunction (8) goes for a trainer who has won with .32% of 84 starters this year and comes off back-to-back wins. Has speed. Can force the issue early, too. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. But? I will box the 6-2-8 in the exactas. 

6th: 7/1-2/5/3-6//4…Ellis Park Derby…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Catalytic (7). This 3YO colt ran 2nd to Fierceness earlier this year in the G1 Florida Derby. Lost by 13 that day, but was still 2nd. Ran huge in the last out and has a lot of ability to either go, or stalk. Gets Luis Saez to ride. I’m all in here. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 1-2-5-3-6 in the exactas. More with the 1-2 than the rest. 

7th: 4-6/7/5/1…Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes…Politicallycorrect (4) has never lost and may not today, either. Has won two in a row to start the career, including the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. Has speed. Can come from behind. Looks solid. Three Echoes (6) has never missed the board and has run two solid efforts at Saratoga. Chance here. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-6 solidly in the exactas. I will key the two of them over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

8th: 3-2/8-9-7-10/5-1…Debutante Stakes…Rich City Girl (3) won the first start of the career here on July 6 as the Post Time favorite and did it with style, speed and ease. May dust these off here, as well. Trainer has won with .30% of 159 races this year. One I like. Mrs Worldwide (2) won the MSW here on July 4 as the odds-on favorite. Look for this one to be hard to put away. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-2 in one solid exacta and then key those two over the 8-9-7-10 in two smaller units. 

9th: 1/4-6/5/8/2-3/7…Audubon Oaks Stakes…The next-to-last “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the railbird — Tarifa (1). This gal was my heavy choice to win the G1 Kentucky Oaks. Didn’t get the job done that day against Thoropedo Anna, who has made a name for herself this year. But has 4 wins in 6 career starts. Returns to the circle here, IMO. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 4-6-5-8 in the exactas. More with the 4-6 than the rest. 

10th: 3/2-1-5-4/9/7-8…Groupie Doll Stakes…The final “Key Play of the Day” comes here in the meet’s lynchpin Stakes and with Taxed (3). This 4YO filly has hit the boars in 9 of 15 starts and has won 2 of 4 at this distance. Ran huge in the G2 last time out. Look out. Could be a handful here. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 2-1-5-4-9 in the exactas. More with the 2-1-5-4 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene