Final Version With Comments: McLean’s Selections for KY Downs on Saturday, Aug. 31 — Nashville Stakes Day

(The McLean Clan on Kentucky Lake this Summer)

(Picks to be updated with last two days of Ellis Park and first day of KY Downs…Coming soon)

Here’s our looks at the big, winding, hilly oval at Kentucky Downs on this Saturday, which we hope is less hot; a lot less humid; and a whole, whole lot less favorable to early speedster types)

1st: 5-3-2/6-7-(15)-9-(16)-(14)/10/8…Wonderland (5) gets the call in the ole’ lid-lifter at the hills and dales of Kentucky Downs, down in Franklin, KY. This 2YO Medaglia d’Oro filly was snatched for $385,000 at the OBS April Sale and will make the 2nd start. First effort was a good one at Saratoga on Aug. 15. Came late after a horrid beginning to run 4th. Barn wins with .19% on the 2nd start. Gets the same rider back and that should help here. Will Then (3) is a first-timer for a solid barn operation, which wins with .21% of the last 394 on the grass. Gets a top international rider for the journey. Works are solid. Chance at some odds. Smartest (2) picks up Flavien Prat here and that’s a huge difference in the 2nd start. Should improve. Good enough is the question. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-7-9 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-2/7/11-(13)-(14)-1-12/(16)-8-9…Start the day with back-to-back #5s, and line up with Beer Run (5). Love the name. This one is a City of Light from the Wesley Ward barn. Has been out 6 times so far with 4 finishes in the money. Barn wins with .22% of the last 630 on the grass. Has run here once before. Tired to be 5th in that one. Rocky Joy (2) goes with the top one’s name, too. This is a 4YO Kitten’s Joy colt. Trainer had a rough opening day, but this one has 5 runner-ups in 6 starts. OK. Now, just needs to find a way to pass them at the end. I bet the 2 — take note — across the board and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 7-11-1-12 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 7/6-4-1-2//3-8/5-9…The first “Key Play of the Meet” comes here with One Timer (7). This 5YO gelding is trained by Larry Rivelli, who won on opening day in a romp and wins with .30% of 173 starters this year. This one has hit the board in 11 of 13 lifetime tries and has a nice 2nd here last year. Rider has experience here and the barn wins with .32% own 2nd try off the layoff and with .31% with beaten favorites. Adds up for me. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the 6-4-1-2 in the exactas. 

4th: 1-5-10/4-(13)-(15)/12-(16)/6-8…Committee of One (1) gets the one hole here, ironically enough. I have liked this one often this year. Has gone 0-3-2 in 8 starts in 2024. I have burned some green. But this one will get another bump from me here. Has a 2nd in only previous run over the hills here and looks to have the style to stay close enough to make the uphill climb to the wire. One more time. Ron Soleil (5) nearly won a Stakes last time out and now finds allowance company once again. Gets the Lasix back and in 4 grass tries, this one has a win and 2 runner-ups. Like the rider choice. Huge help. Dancing Rinca (10) goes for a HOF trainer, who has always been very useful when coaching a grass runner. Had a long shot nearly win on opening day. Look for this one to close, but is only 1-for-15 on the sod. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 10-4-13-15-12 in two smaller units. 

5th: 12-6/8-2-7-9/5-10/3-4-11-(13)…Hit That Review (12) will bring way outside, but that can help some if they get away from the gate quickly. This one picks up a huge rider swap and the barn has been and real fire, of late. Trainer wins with .22% of the last 31 to make the 2nd grass start. Look out here. Ky Do Declare  (6) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 12-1 in the ML by my great friends at Brisnet.com. But? Has been working lights out for a trainer who can win a lot of races. Debut on turf? Zero-for-14? Still…I’m trying. I bet the 12-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 12-6 over/under the 8-2-7-9-5 in two smaller units. 

6th: 12/4-6-8/5-9-11-(14)-(16)/(13)/2-3-(15)…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Top Gun Girl (12). This is another from the barn of Wesley Ward, and this one has the speed that really did well on opening day. If you got the lead at the top of the stretch on Thursday, you didn’t give it up until Friday. HOFer gets the ride again. They won just three starts ago on the sod at Belmont Park in 2023. Look out here in the first start of the 2024 campaign. I bet the 12 across and double down on the win wager. I will key the 12 over/under the 4-6-8-5-9-11 in the exactas. More with the 4-6-8 than the others. 

7th: 7-(15)/1-9-11-(14)/4-12-(13)-(16)/8-10…Scarlet Poppy (7) could elevate to a “Key Play,” too, if the #15 does not draw in from the AE List, and likely will not. This 3YO Irish-bred is still hunting the first win, but ran a huge 2nd on June 28. Look at the comment in the race at Saratoga. Please read it out loud. “Blocked the entire land. Steadied.” Clean trip = win? I think so. I bet the 7 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 15-1-9-11-14-4 in the exactas. More with the 15 and/or 1 than the others. 

8th: 8-12-5/6-11-9/4-2-1/10/3…$3.1 Million G3 Nashville Derby Invitational…The inaugural running of this G3 event — which carries a whopping purse of $3.1 million. Wow numbers. I go with Carson’s Run (8), who ships in from Saratoga and off a nice win in the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational. Gets a new rider here, amazingly enough, but this guy has done well here in the past. In 7 grass runs, this son of Cupid has 4 wins and a second. Looks tough here if the “rally types” can run down the speed. Cugino (12) is one of those speedy types. Won last time out at Churchill Downs by 4 easy lengths and now has 2 wins and 3 seconds in 6 grass starts. Gets America’s best grass jockey up. Big shot. White Palomino (5) could add some spice to the odds rack. This one is from the barn of Chad Brown and has never missed the board in 4 starts. Ran a huge 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby in the last out. Big shot. Too. I bet the 8-12 across the board and double down on the win bet of the 8. I will box the top 3 in the exactas and key those 3 over (only) the 6-11-9 in a smaller unit.

9th: 1-8-11/3-4/2-5-(13)/10-(16)/(14)…$1.5 Million G3 Ladies Turf Sprint…Ruby Nell (1) gets the nod here. This 4YO daughter of Bolt d’Oro comes in off a tiring 6th i the G1 Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita the last time out. But that was unusual. Gets back to a shorter distance here and that could help this one immensely. Trainer is one of my all-time favorites. Classy. Talented. Gentleman. Helluva horseman. Expect her to run better. Hard ground here should help. Secret Money (8) goes for one of the hottest trainers on Planet Earth, these days. Comes in off a 4th, but had all kinds of trouble in that G3 and was beaten only 1/2-length. Much the best in that one. If she clears late? Look out. Danse Macabre (11) has never missed the board in 11 lifetime tries and 10 of those have been on the grass. Must use, for me. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-8-11 in the exactas. I will key that trio over/under the 3-4 in two smaller units. 

10th: 4-3/1-5-9-10-12/2-8/11-(13)-(14)…$1.5 Million G3 Ladies Turf Stakes…Implicated (4) could upset this apple cart and do it with a good price, too. The 4YO daughter of Connect had run 8 times on the grass. Has won 5 of them. Comes in off a win at Woodbine. Competition there is not the same as this place, but this one had a win at Churchill Downs before the Canadian trip, too. Gets the rider who piloted the Louisville score. Working good. Fluffy Socks (3) comes from the barn of Chad Brown, and has a win over this track before. Lots to like here, but just 1 win in 5 starts this year. Slowing down at age 6? I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-3 ion the exactas. I will key that duo over/under the 1-5-9-10-12 in two smaller units. 

11th: 4-12/5/1-7-(14)-(15)//3-6-(13)-11…The finale of the day is a MSW event for the fillies and I go withy On Command (4). This daughter of Omaha Beach ran a solid 2nd when moved off the turf last time out. Has speed and that talent has dominated so far this meet. Barn does well here and one of Kentucky’s best takes the reins again. Maybe ready now. Whappen (12) may improve greatly in the 2nd start. Barn wins with .12% on the second try. Gets a huge rider switch and this one had trouble in the first outing finding an opening. Could jump up here for a hot barn. I bet the 4-12 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exactas. I will key the 4-12 over/under the 5-1-7 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene