
| Days Picks | 9 / 1-1-5 |
| 2024 Overall — 1,100 | 1100 / 348-383-486 |
| Win % of Top Pick | 31.64% |
| Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall | 36.88% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 679-1,100 | 61.73% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 114-183 | 62.30% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 200-321 | 62.31% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 86-129 | 66.67% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 | 73.08% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 | 56.00% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 | 66.67% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 | 66.67% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Bel — 6-9 | 66.67% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick in the Momey @ SAR — 12-14 | 85.71% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 60-183 | 32.79% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 110-321 | 31.15% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 38-129 | 29.46% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 | 30.77% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 | 27.50% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 | 44.44% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ PIM — 5-9 | 55.56% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Bel — 2-9 | 22.22% |
| 2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 7-14 | 50.00% |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 23 / 11-4-2 | 47.83% Win / 69.57% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 | 100.00% Win / 100% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP — 39/ 13-10-6 | 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG — 1 / 0-0-0 | 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD — 28/ 10-5-6 | 35.71% Win / 75.00% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ Bel — 3/0-1-2 | 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP — 18/9-1-3 | 50.00% Win / 72.22% ITM |
| 2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 115/ 45-21-19 | 39.13% Win / 73.91% ITM |
(Stats to be updated with last week’s activities)
Here’s our looks on this massive Saturday at the hills and dales of KY Downs. Six Graded Stakes events on the card and we will be running our very own Courageous Clay in the 4th, as well.
Big day.
All the way around.
I’ll be there. Look me up.
1st: 1-10/4-8-(14)/3-9/2/5-(16)/6…Lovely Emma (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Saturday — full of Stakes events and picnics. Remember post time kicks off at 11:30 a.m. CT. Wake up this morn. The 2YO filly nearly won the first try at Ellis. Lost by a skinny neck. Gets a rider who has won 5 of 18 so far this meet. Wow numbers. Look out with this combo. Don’t Call Me Babe (10) is a contender here, as well. Ran huge in the opener and was close again the 2nd time out. Clicked off early fractions in both that are sizzling. If she can idle just a bit on the front end, she may be able to hold her own late. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-10 in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 10-4-8-14-3-9-2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-12-9/10/(15)/1/2-6-8…Novara (4) comes from good stock and the Godolphin operation. Trainer has been hot this summer and this one has hit the board in 3 of 5 to start the career. Rider has won with a whopping .42% of the last 19 mounts for this barn. Wow number, right there. Scarborough Fair (12) is trained by Chad Brown, who went into Thursday’s races without a win here. Wow? This daughter of Speightstown had no chance in the opener, when steadied early on. Gets a rider switch here and could be on the front end or closer here. Luz Divina (9) has run 3 good ones in the first 5 outs. May be her time here. Ran 2nd to a good one in Buchu last year. If she can run that number again? I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 12-10-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 10-9-3/1-11/6-8/5-7-12…Ocean Atlantique (10) is a gelding who I have touted often. Has gone 0-1-1 in 6 starts this year. Ugh. But the 7YO looks good in this spot, again. Just missed here on Sept. 1. Don’t think they will run him back this early. So…I go to Dynadrive (9). This one goes for a trainer who started the meet 0-for-16. Has run in 5 straight Stakes events. Now up for the price tag of $80,000. Chance? Public Sector (3) won two starts ago at Woodbine and now shows up here. Has a 6-3-6 mark in 25 grass starts over the career span. Gets a huge rider switch. I’m taking a shot here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 9-1-11-6-8 in two smaller units.
4th: (14)-9-11/8/1-7/(13)-4-2/5-6-10…I have a huge confession to make here. We own Courageous Clay (9). He is named for a 4-year-old little boy who has barely been outside of his hospital room and has already undergone a heart transplant and many other operations. Breaks my heart. He has run two really good races and the winner of the last one ran the 2nd best time as a 2YO at Ellis Park — according to Brisnet.com. We think a lot of our gelding. We love everything about him and his namesake. And, I’m coming today to watch him and cheer him on. So, if you are looking for a more biased report, I would look elsewhere. I’m all in. I bet the 9 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 11-8-1-7 and, again, with the “all button.” Go Clay. Be Courageous. Like your namesake.
5th: 10-7-6/1/4-2-(15)…Special Wan (10) is 3-2 in the ML and could be a superstar in this first U.S. start. Has never missed the board in 5 starts and gets Lasix for the first time. Looks tough. But? Spartan Queen (7) will make her first start for a new barn operation after being sold in the Fasig-Tipton July Digital Sale. Has 4 seconds in 9 starts and could move up the notch here with a top rider getting the assignment. Quietly (6) is 12-1 in the ML and I think could return to the Churchill Downs form here with a better trip. Love the rider choice. Look out at some bombs-away odds. I bet the 10-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-7/8-6-4/5//3…G3 Ladies Marathon Stakes…The first of 6 Stakes events on the day and all of them are Graded. I go with one of my all-time favs in Chop Chop (2). This 4YO gal has run 18 times and earned over $1 million. Loves the grass, too. In 7 starts over the sod, has never missed the board. Has a win here. All adds up for me. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-7 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 8-6-4-5 in two smaller units.
7th: 8-(15)/2-4-9-12/6-7-(16)/1-(13)/10-3-11…G3 Music City Stakes…Buttercream Babe (8) ran a huge one last time out in the G2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. Just missed there and has a win and a 3rd in two starts here. This filly has a versatile style and can stalk, speed, or rally. Like her chances. A lot. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. If the 15 draws in, I will box the 8 with her. If not, I will key the 8 over/under the 2-4-9-12-6-7 in the exactas. More with the 2-4-9-12 than the rest.
8th: 10-8-2/7/1/5//6…G3 Mint Million Stakes…Ancient Rome (10), who shipped over to run in the G1 Arlington Million, travels just a bit farther West here for this one. Ran huge in Virginia and may even do better here. Nearly won a Group 2 at Ascot in July. Looks like a must use for me. Talk of the Nation (8) ran up against our top foe in the Arlington Million. Less than a length behind him, too. could turn the tables here, if he can last the hill run. Mountain Bear (2) is one from the Aidan O’Brien barn and ships in after a near-miss 2nd in a Group 3 in Ireland. I like this one. A lot. A whole lot. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 8-7-1-5 in two smaller units.
9th: 11-2-1/6-8/4-12/5-7/10/9…G1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes…Mansa Musa (11) is an Irish-bred colt who is trained by a HOFer, and will be ridden by his #1 jockey. Toss the last one, when 3-wide in the turn. Look at the two before. Should love this distance and could be a handful in the final strides. Evade (2) will make the U.S. debut here. Will run as a gelding for the first time, too. Doesn’t take much for this one to be a tough out. Has Gr1 experience. Hedwig (1) is a speedster who showed the world that he can stalk and pounce last time out. Love the odds here. Like the horse, too. I bet the 11 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units.
10th: 2-11-10/9-7/4-3-1/5//8…G2 Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes…Integration (2) goes for good friend and HOFer Shug McGaughey. Is looking for his first win of this meet and this one could deliver the goods. Ran very well in the G1 Arlington Million last out. Just unlucky. Won a Stakes the race before in hand. Look for this one to be a handful up the final hill. Stakes winning dam has thrown 3 turf winners and 1 Sakes winner. Chief Little Rock (11) is another from the Aidan O’Brien camp. toss the Group 2 debacle last time out. Won a Group 3 the race before. One to beat. For sure. Irish bred is 2-3-1 in 7 grass starts. I bet the 11 across the board — take note — and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-11 over/under the 10-9-7 in two smaller units.
11th: 4-10/11-8-7/3-6-12/1-9//5…G2 Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes…I hate to say it; write it; or even promote it, but Cogburn (4) is the horse to beat here. My distaste has zero to do with the 5YO son of Not This Time or the trainer. It has to do with the primary owner, who is a disgusting sort of fella. But the horse speaks for himself and hie has won two in a row this year and has gone 5 of 6 in grass starts since being converted. Hard to beat that. I bet the 4 to win/place and box the 4-10 in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 10-11-8-7-3 in two smaller units.
12th: 1-(14)-12/7-(16)-(13)-10-3/6-9…Firefight (1) had to steady at the 1/8th pole in the debut race or he may have won that flight and be facing winners, instead. Sure looked like a winner that day at Ellis Park. Gets a new rider here and that could help immensely. I’m all in here. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 14-12-7-16-13-10-3 in the excatas. More with the 12-7 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene

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