Final Version With Comments: McLean’s Selections for Keeneland on Wednesday, Oct. 9

(Stats need to be updated)

Here’s our looks for this week’s “Hump Day” activities at the grand, ole’ oval in Lexingtone. We had a couple of great days and a pee-poor one mixed in there, as well, to kick start this year’s Fall Meet. Here’s hoping we are back on track with the picks here. Fingers crossed. Knock on wood.

1st: 1-4-3/7/5/6/2…Never Sway (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at Keeneland this Wednesday. And, as a result, the 5YO mare will also get the first “Upset Special of the Day.” This California-bred is listed at 6-1 in the ML by my great friends over at Brisnet.com, the only place you need to go for all your racing information. This gal comes in off two straight wins and three in the last four outings. Trainer is winning with .24% of 342 runners this year. Has not started a steed here yet this meet, but look out. This one has the stalking style that can fuel well here. Mazoku (4) has hit the board in 10 of 14 lifetime starts and has a second in only previous try here. Has hit the board in 8 in a row. Rider is an apprentice who will have his hands full here. Winning at a .09% rate in 450 rides this year. Forever Home (3) is the ML favorite and comes in with two wins in a row, as well. Has run here three times before. Has only one third on the board. Has never won at this distance either, and has tried it 5 times. Ho-hum. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 12-7-11/6-10-1-8/2/9…Masked Man (12) is a 3YO gelding who draws to the outside here in this 6-furlong sprint. That is not a bad spot and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. to take the reins here. That’s not a bad spot, either. Ran 2nd in the debut at Monmouth Park on Aug. 18 Working well. My pick. I bet the 12 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 12 over/under the 7-11-6-10-1-8-2 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 5-7/4-1-3/2…Normandy Hero (5) has the look of a horse that is always a little better than what he shows on the track. Last four outings were not good and this son of Omaha Beach appears to be better than that. Now, the colt is dropped into the claiming ranks for the first time and this trainer wins with .13% of those kind. Flavien Prat gets the mount. And, he is good. Darn good. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-7 in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 4-1-3-2 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1-6-8/2-5/10/3-4/7…Stage Left (1) should improve with the 3rd start off the layoff — and this trainer wins with .20% of the last 51 to do that. Also, comes back today as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .15% of the4 last 62 to do that. Tosss the last outing, when he was bumped and stumbled badly at the start. If this one can come close to the run he flashed in the G3 Tom Fool just three starts ago, then he will march away with this one. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the 1 over/under the 6-8-2-5-10 in two smaller units. 

5th: (15)-(14)-(13)/12/4-7-6/9-2/8-10…This is the first turf race of the day and will be contested at 11/8 miles over a firm footing. I look to the AE List for the top 3 slots, if any of them can draw into this race, then any or all are worth looking at and wagering upon. If not, I revert to Raconteuse (12). This one has raced 10 times already, and still looking for the first win. But this filly has hit the board 4 times and could improve with a clean trip here. I am hoping that one of the three from the AE List get in. If they do, I’m all in. If not, I go soft here. Maybe the “all button?”

6th: 8-11/9-(14)/7/5-12-(13)/3/2/4…Kinetic Control (8) looks the best to me. This 2YO son of Not This Time has run twice for the Albaugh Family Stables and has run second both times. Nearly won both of those. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .15% of the last 40 of these types. Sharp work prepping for this one. Graduation day? I bet the 8 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I box the 8-11 in the exactas. I key the 8-11 over/under the 9-14-7-5-12-13 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1-6-5/2/3/4…Another railbird here for me with Silver Rose (1). Rail is winning at an .18% rate this meet. And…this one comes from the stout barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at .26% of 672 starts this year. Go-to rider Florent Geroux gets the ride, again. Daughter of Constitution is out of a Stakes-winning mare and has hit the board 5 out of 7 times. Looks ready for this spot. Miss Enchanted (6) is the ML favorite and comes in off a win at Saratoga last time out. Loses that condition, though, and will face much tougher here. Can she duplicate? I have concerns. Bedazzle ‘Em (5) also won and moves up to face tougher here, too. Has won two in a row and looks primed. I bet the 1 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 6-5-2-3-4 in two smaller units. 

8th: 6-1/7-12-(13)/4-5-8/9-11-(14)/2-10…Today’s finale is the 2nd grass race of the afternoon and I line up with Clever Mischief (6). This 3YO son of Into Mischief comes from the barn of Chad Brown and has a win and a tough-beat second in the last two outings. Gets Prat in the saddle again here and this one could become a real good one before he is done. Look out for an impressive performance. Green Light (1) is already Stakes-placed and has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime tries. This one has speed and that’s dangerous over this sod. Very dangerous. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 6-1 in the exactas. I key the 6-1 over/under the 7-12-13-4 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene