McLean’s Selections & Comments on Breeders’ Cup Friday — Nov. 1

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks at the Breeders’ Cup Stakes, to be held at the Del Mar Turf Club, this Friday. Sit back. Relax. And, enjoy some of the most intense Thoroughbred action in the entire world:

6th / Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: 7-5-3/2-9-10-8/12-11…The first Breeders’ Cup event of 2024 will be this specialty grass spin at the pedal-to-the-medal, 5-furlong sprint — exclusively for the 2YOs. I go with Whistlejacket (7), with a hard lean towards aggressive at the windows. This son of No Nay Never comes in with 3 wins and 3 seconds in 7 total starts for the Team Aidan O’Brien contingency. Top connections all the way around here and the sellers forced a genuine price tag of $643,000 at the Tatersalls Sales a year ago. This one ran 2nd last time out in a GR1 event at Newmarket. Winner of that race came right back to win again the next outing. Look for this one to be a very tough out and could be a solid price. Arizona Blaze (5) could really spice up the odds rack here. This one is 15-1 in the ML, and could go up in the final analysis. Ran 4th last time out, but just behind our top pick in two others this year. If he can tag along with our top one, again, it would produce a nice exacta. Big Mojo (3) and Shareholder (9), both, will get some betting attention here for me, too. The later won the first two career tries and then tossed in a clunker last time out when shipping over to France for the GR1. Look for more here. Ecoro Sieg (8) is, apparently, the “hot horse on the grounds,” according to what is left of the equine media. Some experts have said that he may be a “single.” I’ll use hime with my top 3, but not a huge play on this one for me. I bet the 7-9 across the board and double down on the win wager on the 7. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas, and then I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-9-10-8 in two smaller units. I will also key the 7-9 over/under the 5-3-2-10-8, in a shorter denomination.

7th / Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies: 3-10-5/4-2... This is the 2YO “Advance Race” for the leading 2025 Kentucky Oaks candidates and contenders of today.  The race will span two turns and be distanced at 11/16-miles. This race changed a lot when Bob Baffert scratched Non Compliant (7) from the field.  Speedy type was likely to push hard on our top pick. Without that push, it may change the race totally — from a strategic plan. I go with the G1 Alcibiades winner — Immersive (3). I have heard several complaints and criticisms of this 2YO daughter of Nyquist and her performance in Lexington. Some have contended the race was run too slowly to product a next-out-winner. I offer resistance. Immersive is a perfect 3-for-3. She has won sprinting. She has won on the mud. And, now, she has won at two turns. And, truth be told, never seriously pushed at the wire. If she brings her game West? Look out. She’s a pro already, and tough as nails. Scottish Lassie (10) didn’t catch any breaks at the draw. Parked outside of the rest of them. Will have to break a tad sharper than usual to get over and catch a break into and out of the first turn. I don’t like having to push too early. Hard to slow the down after that. And, some will burn all the gas too soon for the stretch run theatrics. This could be a dangerous scenario for this one, but a must use, none the less. Outback (5) is 10-1 in the ML and is a true closer in a race full enough of speedy types. Trainer Tom Amoss may have another good filly for an Oaks run, if she can duplicate the 2nd to Immersive last time out. Has defeated Snowyte, Scottish Lasie and LaCara. Still, 10-1 odds. May rate a late move chance. I bet the 3  across the board and double down on the win wager. I will bet the 5 across the board, in a softer touch. I bet the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units. 

8th / Breeders’ Cup Fillies Turf…12-1-8/9-5-3-7-11 …This grass event will be contested at the 1 mile distance and it sets up for all kinds of possibilities. The possible upset by an American-bred and U.S.-based horse, though, seems the least likely. But…Just when you least expect it? I will give a soft lean and a little push on my “Upset Play of the Day” — May Day Ready (12). This daughter of Tapit, and out of the More Than Ready Stakes-winning mare, Nemorallia, has read three times already. Won them all, and it normally takes the sons and daughters of the great Tapit to figure out the game. Not this one. She has been two turns. She only picks up 2 pounds in the weights and she gets the great European riders, Frankie Dettori, back in the saddle. If you can’t steal the Euros best horses, then get the Euros best rider? Right! Lake Victoria (1) comes from the barn of superstar trainer Aidan O’Brien. This daughter of the great Frankel has won all 4 of her races, too and has two Group 1 wins under the girth. The fans of Euro racing tout this one as a single play in the exotics, too. Must use for me. But not a single for me, either. Heavens Gate (8) has defeated Fiery Lucy twice and looks like a possible menace for all. Seven races and 6 times on the board. The lone miss was a 4th in Great Britain. Will give a good accounting here. Must use for me, too. I bet the 12-8 across the board. I go for a $10 exacta box with the 12-1-8. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-5 in two smaller units. I will also key the 1-8 over/under the 12-9-5-3-7-11 in two smaller units.

9th / Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: 1-10/4-7-5/8-6…This is the first major, major stepping stone to the 2025 Kentucky Derby and it will be a sincere and tough test for any of these to come out of this fray on the smiling side of the tote board. I will go with East Avenue (1), who I truly think is the best horse in the field. But the inside, #1 post, is not an easy gig at this track configuration and test. Plus, there is an avalanche of speedy types parked to the outside and, at the very least, some will go and push towards the inside to make living a little tougher and tighter on the prohibitive favorite. East Avenue, though, has broken from the #2 and the #1 post positions in the first two starts. Didn’t bother him then and there. May not here. Has speed. But here’s hoping that rider Tyler Gaffalione doesn’t have to use too much to keep the trio of colts trained by Bob Baffert from becoming battering rams and pace pushers. If East Avenue can get to and out of the first turn in a good stalking spot, just off what appears to be a legit pace scenario, I think this son of Medaglia d’Oro will be a tough, tough out. Chancer McPatrick (10) is a legit contender. Has run three times. Has won three times. Now is a two-time G1 winner. Nice. Gets the best rider in the country right now up, again, too. This one has the opposite issue than East Avenue. Can he break, get over, save ground and have the ability to chase down all of the speed in this one. Legit questions, too. This deep, deep closer will have to run against a serious speed bias here, too. May be too tough to overcome. Ferocious (4) is reunited with HOF rider JJ Castellano here, and these two teamed up to win by nearly 8 lengths at Saratoga in August. If this son of Flatter can find that form again? Look out. Gaming (7) is one of three Baffert horses in here. Looks to have the most talent. Has won both of his starts, to date, too. Working well, but that’s the way Baffert trains. Jonathan’s Way (5) could be a real freak and could be one of the best in this generation. Has that look and has fired a couple of nice wins at CD and Saratoga. Two nice venues. But? But? This one is an Ohio-bred. OMG. An Ohio-bred? I bet the 1 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will box the 1-10 sternly in the exactas. And, I will key the 1-10 over/under the 4-7-5-8-6 in two smaller units.

10th / Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf…12-13-11/4-7-5-8: I really wanted to write a lot about this amazing and tremendous race. But I really wanted to write about Minaret Station (8), and the winner of the G2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes at KEE in the last outing. I really wanted to write about a horse, who, actually, ran in front of Minaret in his inaugural race — at Ellis Park on Aug. 5. We own Courageous Clay. On that day, we ran 2nd. Minaret ran 3. I wanted to write and root like it was nobody’s business. But now I’m told that Minaret has been scratched and won’t run. So much for writing anything. Damnit. Instead, I have locked in on Aomori City (12). This daughter of Oasis Dream is one of the best-bred colts in the world and in 4 races so far, he has 2 wins and a third. Lost by 4 last time out in the G1 over in Ireland. But? That was the first race 11/2 months and this one had a troubled trip. I look for more here and more could push to the front at wire time. Charles Appleby the trainer and William Buick the rider. That’s good. Really good. Henri Matisse (13) got no favors with this draw either. Bt the one finished ahead of our top pick last time out and has 3 wins and a 2nd in 5 races. This one comes from the O’Brien barn and has Ryan Moore up. If these two can get a trip. What a race in the stretch. New Century (11) is the 5-2 favorite and a must-include here. Has won 3 of 5 and comes in off two wins in a row. Captured the G1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in the last. But? That’s not the best or greatest competition to build on for this race. Have to respect. But I’m not all in here, either. Al Quadra (4) may be the sleeper in this group. Has real talent and has defeated New Century in the past, as well. Just two starts ago. I think this one needed the Woodbine race more than anything. Look for this one at the wire, too. I bet the 12-4 across the board and then box the 12-13-11-4 in the exactas, trifectas. Toss in the 7-5 and you have a superfecta box. I will key the 12-4 over/under the 13-11-7-5-8 in two smaller units.

Here’s hoping you have a great Breeders’ Cup Day and kick off the weekend in style.

Goo Luck & All the Best / Gene