Days Picks 9 / 4-2-4
2024 Overall — 1,599 1599 / 501-539-704
Win % of Top Pick 31.33%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.36%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 981-1,599 61.35%
2024 Only Top Pick in the Money @ Breeders’ Cup — 8-14 57.14%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KY Downs — 41-76 53.95%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 126-201 62.69%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 327-526 62.17%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 127-201 63.18%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 78-140 55.71%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Bel — 6-9 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 12-14 85.71%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Breeders’ Cup — 3-14 21.43%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KY Downs — 23-76 30.26%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 68-201 33.83%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 180-526 34.22%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 52-201 25.87%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 42-140 30.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ PIM — 5-9 55.56%
2024 Only / Top Pick  Wins @ Bel — 2-9 22.22%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 7-14 50.00%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup — 3/1-1-0 33.33% win / 66.67% ITM%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 30/ 12-8-3 40.00% Win / 76.67% ITM%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 14/6-2-0 42.86% Win / 57.14% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  — 39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG — 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD — 55/ 21-12-10 38.18% Win / 78.18% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ Bel — 3/0-1-2 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP — 19/9-2-3 47.37% Win / 73.68% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KY Downs — 5/3-2-0 60.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 170/ 65-38-24 38.24% Win / 74.71% ITM

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks for this huge Stakes-Day Celebration of live racing at the new & improved Turfway Park. Props galore to the team at Turfway Park / Churchill Downs for putting on this program that will celebrate the experts over the All Weather surface.

Could you imagine a day like this in December in past administrations or without the flood of revenue that has been generated from HHR additions? Impossible.

Now, that impossible is not only possible — but it is reality.

And, today is a shining example of what racing can do in terms of renovation and reclamation to b both facility and purses when the tracks, horse people and the members of the General Assembly work together. Maybe, California and Maryland and Florida — in other words, wherever the Stronachs own a racing operation — should give it a try.

1st: 3-6-10/13/7-5/8-4/1-11-12…Ms Quality Control (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter up in Ya’ll Territory. This 3YO Quality Road filly cost $255 to purchase at a 2YO Sale last year. Has recouped about half of that purchase price so far, with a record of 2-5-3 in 12 starts. This will be the first over the AW, though, for a barn that does quite well on its’ own. Wins with .29% in the last 841 to return as a winner. Gets a top rider here for the saddle job. Should be right there at the wire. Elle Est Forte (6) picks up the services of Luis Saez, who returns today from the sunny confines of Florida to ride here. That jockey just finished up a sizzling hot meet at Churchill Downs. This one will make the AW debut, too, but is 3-10-2 in 26 turf starts. Could pose a late surge and threat. Valentina Day (10) is a whopping 30-1 in the ML set by Brisnet.com. Understand why. Toss the last 3, if you can. See that this one had a nice 3rd at Churchill Downs in June. But here’s the thing: this one has 3 wins in 4 starts at Turfway Park. I’ll include this one in the gimmicks off the home-field advantage. Especially at this price. Take note Ed DeRosa and FatBald Guy. I bet the 3-10 across the board and then bet the 3 across the board again. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-10 over/under the 6-13-7-5 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 3-9/12-7-11/(14)/6-1…Campaign Trail (3) has hit the board in 2 of the first 3 career starts and merits consideration off those tries. Easily beaten in each of the “show” finishes, but could figure better here with a rider who has won with .33% of the last 6 for this barn operation. Had all kinds of troubles in the two back. Toss for me. Team Troy (9) is 8-1 in the ML and another one with a long shot chance here. Ran better than looks in the turf debut last out for a trainer who can simply train a horse. In the first two starts here this Holiday meet, the barn has a second and a third. Wins are coming. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-9 over/under the 12-7-11-14 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 1-8/2-12/7-10-6-9…Double Barrel (1) is another from the barn of Brad Cox, who has won with .26% of his 862 starters this year. Another great trip around the sun. This one has hit the board in 6 of 7 lifetime. Hard to argue with consistency. Has 2 trips here before with 2 thirds. Look for better here. Mendelssohns March (8) will make the AW debut here. But this one has shown some ability on the sod and has faced tough company, to date. Has a shot. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-8 in the exactas and then key the 1-8 over/under the 2-12-7-10 in two smaller units. 

4th: 5-11-4/2-7-8-3/1…My Charmer Stakes…The first of four straight Stakes events on this Saturday night and a good one to kick it all off. I go with Everland (5) — a 6-1 shot in the ML. This gal has not been there in each of the last two, but I don’t think dirt is her top thing. Gets back to the AW here and has 3 wins in 5 starts here. Did run 5th to Thorpedo Anna in the G1 KY Oaks this Spring. Stakes winner here, too. I am locked and loaded here. Canisy (11) is 20-1 in the ML. What say you, DeRosa? FatBaldGuy? This one has excelled on the sod and goes for a top trainer, who conditions over the AW surface at Fair Hill in Maryland. This one has a shot, too. I bet the 5-11 across the board and double down on the 5 in the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-7 in two smaller units.

5th: 6-4-11/12/5-2/7-8//9-10…Holiday Inaugural Stakes…Nice As Pie (6) was not a factor in the G2 Valley View at Keeneland. But this gal is an AW champion. Has 4 starts here. Has won each of those, including the two Stakes here earlier this year. Will be rolling late and picks up a huge rider switch to one of the world’s best in Luis Saez. Can’t help but like this one, right? Sunday Shoes (4) could add some value to the exotics. This one is 6-1 in the ML. Goes for Wesley Ward, who only runs in spots where he thinks he can win and help his overall win percentage — which has dropped below his beloved .30%. Has 3 starts here. All wins. See what I mean. Must use for me. Love Appeals (11) ships in here for a top barn to try the AW for the first time. Is a multiple Stakes winner up North and East. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will double down not the 6 in the win bet. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 11-12-5-2 in two smaller units. 

6th: 7/6/9-8/1-4-10/2-11-3…Prairie Bayou Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Wadsworth (7). This 4YO son of Quality Road comes in off a near miss 2nd in the 2024 debut for trainer Brad Cox. Was off for over a year. Desperately needed that one. Has 3 previous runs here. Has 2 wins. Ran 4th to Two Phils in the 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Remember that Two Phils ran a huge 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Enough credentials for me. I bet the 7 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I box the 7-6 in the exactas sternly. I will also key the 7 over/under the 6-9-8-1-4-10 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1-8-12/6/3-11-10-4/5-2…Holiday Cheer Stakes…Howard Wolowitz (1) just ran last in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Last time out. Now runs on Saturday night at Turfway Park. How far has Turfway Park come? Tell me? This 3YO son of Munnings ran 9th in the Breeders’ Cup after being checked out of it at the turn. But he won the G1 Franklin Simpson at KY Downs before that. Also, he has a win over the AW at Gulfstream Park to break the MSW. Hard to beat those credentials. One Timer (8) is 6-1 in the ML and may slide up in odds before PT. This one is 4-4-1 in 12 turf starts. But on the AW? A perfect 3-for-3. Has serious ability for the same trainer who gave us Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Noballs. Patches O’Houlihan (12) is an Ontario-bred and not an Irish-bred, amazingly enough. But this one has run over the AW surfaces a total of 11 times at Woodbine. Has 9 wins and a second. Is a G2 winner in Canada and just ran 2nd to, none other, than Noballs in the G2 Kennedy Road. All speed will travel. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units. Wow. What a race. 

8th: 7-5-6/1/8/9-(14)/3…Mercante (7) nearly won last time out when dropped into an allowance at Churchill Downs after a 11/2-year layoff. Came with a late rush to nearly head-bob them at the wire. If this son of Gun Runner improves off that race? Gone. Done. Winner. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 7 over/under the 5-6-1-8 in two smaller units. 

9th: 10/6-8-11-1/12…The final race of the night gives us our last “Key Play of the Nighttime,” too. This will come with Father Dalton (10). This 3YO son of Malibu Moon will get Lasix for the first time and that should benefit the 2nd career start. Gets Luis Saez up, too, and that can’t hurt the cause. Ran well over the sod at Aqueduct in October. Should benefit from that effort. Dam has 4 winners from 7 starters and the breeding sure fits this sprint distance, as well. The trainer/jockey have teamed up to go 2-for-6 over the last two weeks. I’m in. I bet the 10 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under the 6-8-11-1-12 in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene