(Sovereignty / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

12th: 18-8-3/9/14-10-7/17-19-21/2-1-16-19…G1 Kentucky Derby…This may be one of the deepest and best runs for these rose petals. Class field with a class group of runners, which could have been even better if G1 Florida Derby winner Tappan Street had stayed healthy and made the gate, too. Despite all, I love Sovereignty (18). This 3YO son of the great sire Into Mischief has won twice and finished runner-up twice in 4 career starts. Has a win over this track in the G3 Street Sense last October. Won that one by 5 in a last-to-first move that inspires. Deep closer needs a hole or two, but the return of Junior Alvarado to the saddle here could be all that is needed to crown this year’s winner. Love this one. Journalism (8) is the huge favorite after winning 4 in a row — including the G1 Santa Anita Derby. But? This one has raced against only 4 other competitors in 4 of those races. There will be more than 4 in this Derby. A lot more. Vunerable. Final Gambit (3) is coming off a huge win in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Went from last to first in that AW victory in a flash. Big gray by Not This Time is a legit contender. Legit. Burnham Square (9) is not the biggest horse in the world, but he is strong and stout and has the heart of a champ. This is a gelding. Only 9 of the previous 120 geldings to run in the KY Derby have won. The last gelding to win was Mine That Bird. Hard to overcome history. Tiztastic (14) is a better grass horse than dirt. Just no way around it. But the son of Tiz the Law (who tried to win the Derby as a NY-bred) did win the G2 Louisiana Derby. I can use underneath, but not a strong play for me. Grande (10) ran 2nd in the G2 Wood Memorial, but never had a chance to ever pass the winner that day, Rodriguez (4). But? Grande is the better prospect to get 11/4-miles. Period. Luxor Cafe (7) was spectacular in is last race win in Japan. Just watch that replay. Circled the field and stormed away with a thunder. Must use for me. Must. use. Sandman (17) won big in the G1 Arkansas Derby and the well-bred son of Tapit looks amazing. But? This one has never run well over this track, with just one third in 3 previous tries. Was drilled by our top pick in the Street Sense. Will be over-bet, too. Toss for me. Lots of speed in this year’s version. Should set up perfectly for those that prefer to close. My horse prefers to close. And, close well. I bet the 18 across the board (2x). I double down on the win wager. I bet Final Gambit and Luxor Cafe across the board, as well. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 18 over/under the “all button,” and then I key the 18 over/under the 8-3-9-14-10-7-17-19-21.